2007年7月石油市场月报(2007)MOMR July 2007(2007)

6月，欧佩克参考价格篮子上涨2.41美元或近4%，收于66.77美元/桶。市场看涨主要是对汽油供应的担忧，地缘政治担忧和炼油厂故障为市场提供了进一步支持。然而，健康的原油库存保持了市场平衡。在7月的前两周，由于美国炼油厂持续停工，季节性需求增加，对汽油的持续担忧，导致全球油价创下10个月来的新高，7月第一周的一揽子价格飙升至70美元/桶以上。7月13日，该篮子价格为72.49美元/桶。

全球经济的强劲扩张预计将以4.9%的增长率持续到2008年，几乎与2007年预测的5%持平。美国经济增长率将从今年的2.1%提高到2008年的2.6%，因为到明年春季，房地产业不再对GDP增长产生不利影响，私人投资开始回升。欧元区和日本的经济增长预计将保持相对强劲，分别为2.4%和2.2%，略低于2007年。对发展中国家，特别是印度和中国来说，2008年有望实现又一年的强劲增长，尽管增长率略低，中国明年的增长率为9.6%，印度为7.8%。这种良性预测的风险可能来自于高于必要的利率，因为各国央行应对可能抑制增长率的通胀压力。

据预测，2008年世界石油需求增长率为130万桶/日，与本年度的预测值相比相对未变。非经合组织（尤其是中国、中东和印度）将占据最大份额，而经合组织预计只会看到温和增长，主要来自北美。预计交通和工业将是主要增长部门，预测中的风险可能会对两个方向的增长产生约150000桶/日的影响。由于汽油价格上涨和价格弹性增强的影响，经合组织的石油需求可能会超出预期。北半球暖冬模式的延续可能会抑制需求，而极端寒冷的天气则会带来风险。2007年，世界石油需求预计将增长130万桶/日或1.5%，与上一年同期基本持平。6月份，世界石油需求如预期一样出现了低季节性趋势。由于4月份数据强劲，预计第二季度同比增长110万桶/日，而第三季度和第四季度应保持140万桶/日和170万桶/日的健康增长。

2008年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应预计将增长100万桶/日，达到5140万桶/日，这是由于各油田产量的加速下降以及成本导致的项目延误的影响，将从本年度延续下去。预计海上项目的份额将增长至63.5%，产量也将增加，预计将以轻至中质原油为主，灰烬占68%。2007年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应预计将增加100万桶/日，这意味着较上一次评估的19万桶/日大幅下降，主要原因是挪威的表现不佳，在5月和6月的早期维护达到了13年来的最低点，比正常维护更重，以及Ekofisk和Kvitebjornfields的关闭。6月份，欧佩克原油平均日产量为3000万桶，比上月下降9.7万桶。

6月份美国汽油库存低于预期，进一步支撑了近几周的成品油和原油价格。然而，快速上涨的原油价格超过了成品油市场的表现，与上月相比，6月份炼油利润率全面下滑。尽管炼油厂利润率下降，但随着炼油厂陷入困境的风险持续存在，6月份产品市场人气依然坚挺，为原油市场提供了支撑。然而，随着全球炼油厂产量的增加（尤其是美国），以及汽油进口量的增加，成品油市场近期可能会失去部分目前的实力。

6月份，欧佩克的现货供应量较上月增长了8%左右，平均为1283万桶/日，而欧佩克的航行量保持稳定，平均为2340万桶/日，小幅下降了20万桶/日。6月份，全世界的到达量保持稳定，美国的到达量仅小幅增长了7万桶/日。超大型油轮市场进一步走软，因为充足的可用吨位与低于预期的吨位需求水平相结合，使租船人获得了优势。在中东/东向和西向航线上，费率分别下降了23%和7%。6月清洁油轮运价看跌，多数地区的需求低于可用吨位清单。

由于炼油企业准备提高利用率，美国6月份原油净进口总量增加8.7万桶/日。然而，由于汽油进口减少，6月份产品进口量较上月下降27万桶/日，达到250万桶/日。同一个月，由于原油进口增加，而产品下降了2.6%，日本的石油进口总量估计增加了193000桶/日，达到平均390万桶/日。经合组织的估计显示，5月份石油净进口总额约为2560万桶/日，增长约3.5%。在中国，5月份石油净进口额较上月下降0.56万桶/日，降至350万桶/日，主要是由于原油进口下降，表明每年损失约2.7%。由于原油进口减少和产品出口增加，印度5月份的石油净进口总额比上个月下降了近10%。

2007年6月，商业石油库存总量又增加了2000万桶，达到10.27亿桶，与一年前相比出现了赤字，但与上一个五年平均水平相比出现了1800万桶的盈余。随着汽油库存增加640万辆，与五年平均水平的差距缩小到700万辆以下。16欧元（欧盟15国加上挪威）的石油库存总量扭转了上个月下降近1600万欧元的趋势，原因是产品库存大幅下降104万欧元。然而，库存仍高于过去五年平均水平的上限。截至5月底，印度商业石油库存达到280万桶，但仍比去年减少2100万桶，与5年平均水平持平。

2007年对欧佩克原油的需求预计平均为3080万桶/日，几乎与2006年持平。从水资源角度看，欧佩克原油第一季度的需求量预计为302万桶/日，下一季度的需求量预计为300万桶/日、309万桶/日和311万桶/日。2008年，对欧佩克原油的需求预计平均为3070万桶/日，接近2007年的估计值。

The OPEC Reference Basket in June rose $2.41 or almost 4% to close at $66.77/b. Concern over gasoline supplydominated market bullishness, with geopolitical concerns and refinery glitches providing further support to the market.However, healthy crude oil stocks kept the market in balance. In the first two weeks of July, continued concern overgasoline as seasonal demand stepped up amid ongoing refinery outages in the USA, sent global prices to a 10-month highwith the Basket surging above the $70/b level in the first week of July. The Basket stood at $72.49/b on 13 July. 

The strong global economic expansion is expected to continue into 2008 at a growth rate of 4.9%, almost at the same pace asthe forecasted 5% in 2007. US growth is to improve to 2.6% in 2008 from 2.1% this year as the housing sector ceases to be adrag on GDP growth by the spring of next year and private investment picks up. In the Euro-zone and Japan, growth isexpected to remain relatively strong at 2.4% and 2.2%, respectively, slightly lower than in 2007. For Developing Countries,and in particular India and China, another year of robust growth can be expected in 2008, albeit at a moderately lower rate.Growth in China is seen at 9.6% and in India at 7.8% next year. The risks to this benign forecast may come from higher thannecessary interest rates as central banks respond to perceived inflationary pressures which may dampen the rate of growth. 

World oil demand growth in 2008 is forecast at 1.3 mb/d, relatively unchanged from the estimate for the current year. NonOECD— especially China, the Middle East, and India — will account for the largest share, while OECD is expected to seeonly moderate growth, mostly from North America. Transportation and industry are expected to be the main growth sectors.Risks to the forecast could impact growth by around 150,000 b/d in either direction. Oil demand in OECD may turn outweaker-than-expected due to the impact of higher gasoline prices and the stronger price elasticity. A continuation of the recentpattern of warm winters in the Northern Hemisphere could dampen demand while extremely cold weather would pose anupward risk. In 2007, world oil demand is forecast to grow at 1.3 mb/d or 1.5%, broadly unchanged from the previousMOMR. In June, world oil demand followed as expected a low seasonality trend. Due to the strong April figure, the secondquarter is expected to grow 1.1 mb/d y-o-y, while the third and fourth quarters should see healthy growth of 1.4 and 1.7 mb/d. 

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2008 is expected to grow 1.0 mb/d to reach 51.4 mb/d, as the impact of accelerated declines inmature fields, along with cost-induced project delays, carry over from the current year. The share of offshore projects isexpected to grow to 63.5% and incremental production and is expected to be dominated by light to medium crude types with ashare of 68%. In 2007, non-OPEC supply is expected to increase 1.0 mb/d. This represents a significant downward revision ofaround 190,000 b/d from the last assessment, primarily due to the weak performance of Norway which reached a thirteen-yearlow in May and June on early and heavier than normal maintenance as well as the shut down of the Ekofisk and Kvitebjornfields. In June, OPEC crude output averaged 30.0 mb/d, a decline of 97,000 b/d from the previous month. 

Lower than expected gasoline stock-builds in the USA in June provided further support for product and crude prices inrecent weeks. However, fast rising crude prices outpaced the performance of the product market, undermining refinerymargins across the board in June compared to the previous month. Despite falling refinery margins, product marketsentiment remained firm in June providing support for the crude market, as the risk of refinery snags persisted. However,with increasing refinery throughput across the globe — especially in the USA — and higher gasoline imports, productmarkets may lose part of their current strength in the near term. 

OPEC spot fixtures increased by around 8% in June from the previous month to average 12.83 mb/d, while OPEC sailingsremained steady with a minor decrease of 0.2 mb/d to average 23.4 mb/d. Arrivals remained steady around the world withUS arrivals increasing only a minor 70,000 b/d in June. The VLCC market softened further as ample tonnage availabilitycoupled with tonnage requirement levels falling short of expectations gave charterers the advantage. On the MiddleEast/eastbound and westbound routes, rates fell 23% and 7% respectively. Clean tanker freight rates were bearish in June astonnage demand was shorter than the available tonnage list in most regions.

  US total net crude oil imports rose 87,000 b/d in June as refiners prepare to increase utilization rates. However, product netimports fell 270,000 b/d from previous month to stand at 2.5 mb/d in June on the back of lower gasoline imports. In thesame month, Japan’s estimated total oil imports rose 193,000 b/d to average 3.9 mb/d on increased crude oil imports whileproducts fell 2.6%. The OECD estimates showed an increase of around 3.5% for the total net oil imports in May settlingat around 25.6 mb/d. In China, net oil imports fell by 0.56 mb/d in May from the previous month to stand at 3.5 mb/d,mostly due to the decline in crude oil imports, indicating an annual loss of around 2.7%. India’s total net oil importsdropped almost 10% in May from the previous month on the back of lower crude oil imports and higher product exports. 

In June 2007, total commercial oil stocks rose a further 20 mb to stand at 1,027 mb, showing a deficit versus a year ago but an18 mb surplus compared to the last five-year average. With the 6.4 mb increase in gasoline stocks, the gap to the five-yearaverage narrowed to less than 7 mb. Total oil stocks in Eur-16 (EU-15 plus Norway) reversed the upward trend seen duringthe previous month falling by almost 16 mb due to a huge decline of 10.4mb in product stocks. However, inventories remainedat comfortable levels above the upper range of the last five-year average. At the end of May, commercial oil inventories inJapan witnessed a build of 2.8 mb, but remained 21 mb below last year and at the same level as the five-year average. 

Demand for OPEC crude in 2007 is expected to average 30.8 mb/d, at almost the same level experienced in 2006. On aquarterly basis, the demand for OPEC crude is estimated at 30.2 mb/d in the first quarter and forecast at 30.0 mb/d, 30.9 mb/dand 31.1 mb/d in the subsequent quarters. In 2008, demand for OPEC crude is projected to average 30.7 mb/d, close to theestimate for 2007.