2007年5月石油市场月报(2007)MOMR May 2007(2007)

今年4月，欧佩克（OPEC）参考指标篮子飙升至8个月高点，因担忧夏季燃料供应，并担心地缘政治发展中可能出现的供应过度中断。4月份，该篮子指数上涨4.92美元或8.4%，至63.39美元/桶，是第三个月涨幅，比1月份上涨25%。5月上半月，由于部分亚洲炼油厂仍在进行季节性维修，市场预计需求将下降，因此该篮子石油价格恢复了下降趋势。然而，由于5月14日欧佩克的参考价格篮子降至63.68美元/桶，来自西非的更高需求预测和供应中断控制了价格。今年世界经济增长率预计为4.8%，比上一次预测高出0.1个百分点，原因是欧盟、日本、中国和巴西的经济增长率小幅上调，而巴西则因数据调整而上调，对美国的预测又下调了0.1个百分点，至2.2%，因为即将公布的数据继续显示，房地产行业的疲弱程度进一步加深，第一季度出口意外下降。日本的经济复苏仍在进行中，但消费需求仍然乏力，而在欧盟，对强劲经济复苏的可持续性普遍持乐观态度。对发展中国家而言，尽管有迹象显示美国需求放缓，政府也试图推动中国经济增长，但多数指标显示，2007年表现强劲。中国在第一季度实现了非常强劲的11.1%的增长，今年的预测被修正为9.9%，而印度的预测与上月的8.0%持平。4月份世界石油需求较上月有所下降，尽管北美的需求增长最为强劲。非经合组织国家的石油需求增长了，但没有经合组织国家那么多。据预测，2007年世界石油需求增长为130万桶/日，或1.5%，至8540万桶/日。经合组织（OECD）欧洲的消费量较上个月的评估略有下降。由于燃料油和汽油需求激增，北美第一季度的石油需求预计平均为2590万桶/日，同比增长70万桶/日。蓬勃发展的经济活动促进了中东和中国的石油需求，同比分别增长了30万桶/日和40万桶/日。2006年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应量平均为4950万桶/日，比2005年增加了50万桶/日，较上一次评估略有上升。2007年，非欧佩克国家的石油平均供应量预计为5070万桶/日，比上一年增加120万桶/日，比上一次评估下降7.1万桶/日。修订主要是由于第一季度的实际数据。4月份的初步数据显示，非欧佩克国家的石油供应量为5040万桶/日，与2007年第一季度持平。欧佩克4月份的总产量平均为3014万桶/日，比上月增加97100桶/日。美国对汽油的需求增加，加上大量的非计划炼油厂停产和维修计划延误，导致过去几周汽油库存出现异常减少。这一情况大大提高了全球炼油厂的利润率。随着大西洋盆地炼油厂维修计划接近尾声，未来几周成品油市场情绪可能略有减弱，但可能仍对原油价格构成支撑，因为美国炼油企业短期内可能无法大幅提高产能水平。4月份，欧佩克的现货租船量继续下降，下降了46万桶/日，至124万桶/日，为2007年迄今的最低水平。非石油输出国组织的租船量保持在700万桶/天的稳定水平。来自欧佩克地区的船运量增加了134万桶/天，达到2410万桶/天，中东的船运量下降了0.1万桶/天，达到1720万桶/天。超大型油轮的原油运价在所有航线上都有所下降，由于适逢亚洲炼油厂维修季节，充足的可用性下降了14%至27%，对运价进一步施加下行压力。受市场紧缩影响，苏伊士型油轮4月份的运价有所上升。产品运价涨跌不一，但由于活动有限，影响了运价。初步估计，经合组织3月份原油进口量为3060万桶/日，比上月增加0.85万桶/日，其中产品进口量在增加35.5万桶/日后达到1040万桶/日。然而，两者均出现了年度下降。美国4月份原油进口量增长18万桶/日，达到1015万桶/日，年增长率为3.6%。成品油进口继续保持增长势头，推动美国石油净进口达到1250万桶/日，创下今年以来的最高水平。相比之下，由于炼油厂维修，日本4月份原油进口量下降约18万桶/日。在中国，原油净进口量在上个月增加了12.5万桶/日，达到380万桶/日，表明在原油和产品进口量增加的支持下，年增长约17%。从月度和年度来看，印度的石油净进口总额保持稳定。4月份，美国商业股总量连续第二次增长，达到9.86亿股，比5年平均水平高出3%。原油库存为3.39亿桶，为2006年5月以来的最高水平，而受汽油推动，成品油库存下降了220万桶，至6.47亿桶。在截至5月4日的一周内，汽油库存扭转了过去12周的下降趋势，并上涨约40万桶/日，原因是进口量增加和炼油厂运行的温和复苏。在欧盟16国（15欧元加上挪威），石油库存上升31.5万桶/日至11.61亿桶，为2006年1月以来的最高水平。在日本，3月底，商业石油库存微跌50万桶，至185万桶，比一年前多出470万桶。原油库存自2006年11月以来首次增加，增加了25万桶/日，达到11 150万桶，而产品库存下降，出口大幅增加，进口下降。预计2007年欧佩克原油需求平均为3040万桶/日，较上年下降9万桶/日。以水资源为基础，预计欧佩克原油需求分别为3090万桶/日、2940万桶/日、3040万桶/日和3060万桶/日。2006年，欧佩克原油的平均需求量为3040万桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket surged to an eight-month high in April on concern over summer fuel supplies and worries overpotential supply disruptions amid geopolitical developments. The Basket rose $4.92 or 8.4% in April to stand at $63.39/b, thethird monthly rise and 25% higher than in January. In the first half of May, the Basket resumed the downward trend on theperception of lower demand amid some Asian refineries still on seasonal maintenance. However, higher demand forecasts andsupply disruptions from West Africa kept prices in check as the OPEC Reference Basket eased to $63.68/b on 14 May. World economic growth is now forecast at 4.8% for this year, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous forecastdue to small upward revisions for the EU, Japan, China and Brazil, the latter on account of data adjustments.Meanwhile, the forecast for the US has been revised down by another 0.1 percentage points to 2.2% as incoming datacontinue to show further and even deepening weakness in the housing sector and a surprising drop in exports during thefirst quarter. The economic recovery in Japan is still on course but consumer demand remains anemic, while in the EUoptimism prevails about the sustainability of the strong economic recovery. For Developing Countries, most indicatorspoint to a strong performance in 2007, despite signs of a slowdown in demand in the US and government attempts tocurb growth in China. China achieved a very strong 11.1% growth in the first quarter and the forecast for this year hasbeen revised up to 9.9% while India’s forecast is unchanged from last month’s at 8.0%. World oil demand was lower in April than in the previous month, although demand growth was the strongest in NorthAmerica. Non-OECD oil demand grew but not as much as in the OECD countries. World oil demand growth for 2007 isforecast at 1.3 mb/d or 1.5% to 85.4 mb/d. Consumption in OECD Europe was revised down slightly from last month’sassessment. First quarter oil demand in North America is estimated to average 25.9 mb/d, representing 0.7 mb/d growthy-o-y, due to surging demand for both fuel oil and gasoline. Booming economic activities helped boosted oil demand inboth the Middle East and China, with y-o-y increases of 0.3 mb/d and 0.4 mb/d respectively. In 2006, non-OPEC oil supply averaged 49.5 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.5 mb/d over 2005 and a slight upwardrevision from the last assessment. Non-OPEC supply is expected to average 50.7 mb/d in 2007, an increase of 1.2 mb/d overthe previous year and a downward revision of 71,000 b/d from the last assessment. The revision is due mainly to actual firstquarter data. Preliminary data for the month of April put non-OPEC supply at 50.4 mb/d, around the same level as in thefirst quarter of 2007. Total OPEC production in April averaged 30.14 mb/d, an increase of 97,100 b/d over the previousmonth. Higher demand for gasoline in the USA, combined with extensive unplanned refinery outages and maintenance scheduledelays, resulted in unusual gasoline stock-draws over the last couple of weeks. This situation lifted refinery marginssignificantly across the globe. With the approaching end of the refinery maintenance schedule in the Atlantic Basin,product market sentiment may soften slightly over the next weeks, but is likely to remain supportive to crude prices, as USrefiners might not be able to raise throughput level sharply in the short term. OPEC spot chartering continued to decline in April, falling 0.46 mb/d to 12.4 b/d, the lowest level so far in 2007. NonOPECspot chartering remained steady at 7.0 mb/d. Sailings from the OPEC area rose by 1.34 mb/d to 24.1 mb/d, withMiddle East sailing declining by 0.1 mb/d to stand at 17.2 mb/d. VLCC crude oil freight rates declined in all routes, losingbetween 14% and 27% on ample availability which coincided with the Asian refinery maintenance season, exerting furtherdownward pressure on freight rates. Suezmax rates increased in April on the back of market tightness. Product freight rateswere mixed but declined in the East as limited activities affected rates. Preliminary estimates put OECD crude oil imports for March at 30.6 mb/d, up 0.85 mb/d from the previous month, whileproduct imports reached 10.4 mb/d following a gain of 355,000 b/d. However, both experienced annual declines. US crudeoil imports rose 180,000 b/d to hit 10.15 mb/d in April, representing annual growth of 3.6%. Product imports remainedsteady, driving the US net oil imports to 12.5 mb/d, their highest level so far this year. In contrast, Japan’s crude oil importsfell around 180,000 b/d in April due to refinery maintenance. In China, net crude oil imports increased by 125,000 b/d inMarch to 3.8 mb/d, indicating annual growth of around 17%, supported by increased crude and product imports. India’sMarch total net oil imports remained steady in both monthly and yearly terms. Total US commercial stocks saw the second consecutive increase in April, reaching 986 mb or 3% above the five-yearaverage. Crude oil stocks stood at 339 mb, the highest level since May 2006, while product stocks fell 2.2 mb to 647 mb,driven by gasoline. In the week ending 4 May, gasoline stocks reversed the downward trend of the last 12 weeks and rosearound 0.4 mb/d due to increasing imports and a modest recovery in refinery runs. In EU-16 (Eur-15 plus Norway), oilstocks rose 315,000 b/d to 1,161 mb, the highest level since January 2006. In Japan, commercial oil stocks fell a marginal0.5 mb to stand at 185 mb at the end of March, representing a surplus of 4.7 mb above a year ago. Crude oil stocksincreased for the first time since November 2006, rising by 250,000 b/d to 111.5 mb whereas product stocks dropped asexports increased substantially and imports fell. Demand for OPEC crude in 2007 is expected to average 30.4 mb/d, down 90,000 b/d from the previous year. On aquarterly basis, the demand for OPEC crude is expected at 30.9 mb/d, 29.4 mb/d, 30.4 mb/d and 30.6 mb/d respectively. In2006, estimated demand for OPEC crude averaged 30.4 mb/d.