2006年7月石油市场月报(2006)MOMR July 2006(2006)

最近几周，各国央行对通胀风险的看法发生了重大变化。经过三年普遍的扩张性政策，重点已从维持增长转向抑制通胀。针对通胀预期上升的危险，美国、欧洲和亚洲都提高了利率。因此，物价上涨仍在可控范围内，但货币当局已采取行动，以防止能源和大宗商品成本上升导致工资结算，并导致核心通胀率上升。市场尤其担心，在2006年剩余时间内，美国利率可能继续升至高于此前预期的水平，黄金、大宗商品和股票的价格因此不断下跌。

紧缩政策的影响可能要到明年才能感受到，2006年多数地区的GDP预测已经上调，反映出一季度以来强劲的持续势头。预计第二季度欧元区经济将继续好转，2006年经济增长预期已升至2.0%。2006年对日本的预测也被修正为3.0%，对中国的预测被提高到9.5%。然而，以美国经济为例，高利率和高能源成本预计将影响今年的消费支出，2006年的增长预期已从3.4%下调至3.3%。在某些情况下，对暴露于商品价格的经济体的预测也有所降低。总的来说，这些不同的调整抵消了对2006年世界GDP增长的预测，保持在4.7%不变。

由于担心可能出现供应短缺，地缘政治紧张局势继续主导市场情绪，欧佩克5月初参考价格篮子达到68.37美元/桶的历史高点。然而，随着本月的进展，在供应充足的情况下，健康原油库存水平缓解了市场的担忧，使一揽子原油价格跌至62.51美元/桶，然后在本月底再次回升。因此，5月份该篮子平均价格为65.11美元/桶，较上月微增67美元或超过1%。6月，该篮子继续经历波动性波动，月初升至66.48美元/桶，6月16日则有下降趋势，至63.02美元/桶。

过去几周，由于国内产量和进口增加，美国汽油库存增加，缓和了美国产品市场的看涨情绪，并给炼油利润率带来压力，特别是重质原油。近期，欧洲现货和期货产品市场也受到美国汽油库存看跌走势的影响，但总体而言，5月份的产品价格已超过其相应的基准布伦特原油精炼厂利润率，飙升2.08美元，达到创纪录的5.80美元/桶，随着美国和欧洲炼油厂从维修中恢复过来，如果当前需求增长的低速度继续下去，这些地区的炼油厂利润率可能会进一步下降。在亚洲，持续的大规模维修计划可能会支撑6月份的产品价格和炼油利润率，但随着炼油厂从7月份开始恢复生产，它们可能会失去部分实力。

欧佩克5月份现货供应量大幅飙升，平均为1440万桶/日，较上月增长240万桶/日或20%，较上年同期增长170万桶/日。上升趋势是由于炼油厂开始从季节性维修中恢复，预订量居高不下。非欧佩克的现货供应量也有所增加，增加了40万桶/日，达到780万桶/日。然而，来自欧佩克的航运量下降了140万桶/日，至229万桶/日，部分原因是上个月欧佩克的现货供应量下降。预订量的增加导致油轮市场紧张，几乎所有航线的运价都大幅增长，扭转了2006年2月以来的持续下降趋势。在超大型油轮行业，从中东向东运输原油的运费平均增长了20%，而向西运输的油轮的运费则增加了三分之一。在类似的趋势下，成品油船市场进一步走强，特别是在东部地区，现货运价平均上涨了100多点或50%左右。

据预测，2006年世界石油需求将增长140万桶/日或1.6%，至平均8460万桶/日，与上月的预测基本持平。尽管世界石油需求增长的最大份额主要在发展中国家，但有迹象表明，石油需求有所缓解，部分原因是高油价。与上一季度相比，美国第二季度的石油需求与3.4%的高经济增长保持同步，显示该季度石油需求同比增长20万桶/日。中东地区石油需求量小幅增长3万桶/日，达到610万桶/日，同比增长30万桶/日。上半年，中国强劲的经济增长带动了石油需求的增长，全年石油需求量上调2万桶/日。目前，中国的石油需求预计将增长近50万桶/日，到2006年达到平均700万桶/日。

2006年，非欧佩克国家的石油平均供应量预计为5140万桶/日，比2005年增加120万桶/日，但较上一次评估的水平向下修正了84000桶/日。这一调整反映出加拿大、澳大利亚、安哥拉和毛里塔尼亚的产量增长低于预期，原因是一些关键项目的启动或生产受到意外技术问题的影响。然而，这些调整被其他国家，特别是阿根廷、俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦的上调部分抵消。与之前的估计一致，预计经济增长将从6月份开始迅速加速。2006年4月的初步数据显示，非欧佩克国家的总供应量为5050万桶/日。从5月的数据来看，初步估计，非欧佩克国家的供应量超过5100万桶/日，这是该集团的一项记录。5月份，欧佩克原油总产量平均为2950万桶/日，较上月下降10万桶/日。

初步数据显示，5月份经合组织原油进口量为3170万桶/日，增长5.1万桶/日，产品进口量为1100万桶/日，较上月增加3.7万桶/日。美国原油进口量大幅增长24.3万桶/日，达到1000万桶/日，为今年以来的最高水平。同样，受混合成分的推动，产品进口量激增约61万桶/日，增幅达20%。与一年前相比，原油净进口（减去出口）下降了15万桶/日，而产品净进口增加了近69万桶/日。相比之下，由于需求下降，日本原油净进口和产品净进口分别下降了23.5万桶/日和12.8万桶/日。在中国，4月份原油净进口量增加了8万桶/日，达到280万桶/日，但仍比上年同期增长3%。产品净进口量也增加了5.1万桶/日，达到平均50万桶/日。印度4月份的原油和产品净进口总量为190万桶/日，比上年同期增加了5.3万桶/日，增幅为3%。

5月份，美国商业石油库存大幅增长2200万桶，达到102880万桶。总体水平比去年和五年平均水平分别高出2%和5%。5月份，原油库存较上月减少了30万桶，而汽油库存有所增加，增加了108万桶，仍低于一年期和五年期平均水平21020万桶。16欧元（EU-15 plusNorway）的商业石油库存下降了13000桶/日，至114820万桶，这是由于原油和中间馏分油的库存吸引所致，而汽油库存则略有上升。尽管如此，今年这个时候的总体库存水平仍高于平均区间的上限3.7%，高于五年平均水平8.4%。日本商业石油库存总量以较温和的速度增长，达到17160万桶，但仍保持在舒适的水平，分别比去年和五年平均水平高出12.2%和1.4%。由于成品油库存总量小幅下降至5810万桶，该项目的建设完全依赖于原油库存。预计2006年欧佩克原油需求平均为2870万桶/日，较上月增加10万桶/日。新的预测显示，按季度计算，欧佩克原油需求预计第一季度为2980万桶/日，第二季度为2820万桶/日，第三季度为2830万桶/日，第四季度为2860万桶/日。

Recent weeks have seen a significant change in the central banks’ perception of inflation risks. Following three yearsof generally expansionary policies, the emphasis has shifted from sustaining growth to restraining inflation. Interestrates have been raised in the USA, Europe and Asia in response to the danger of rising inflation expectations. Thusfar, price increases remain under control but monetary authorities have acted to forestall any acceleration in case risesin energy and commodity costs should feed through into wage settlements and lead to increases in core rates ofinflation. Markets are particularly concerned that US interest rates may continue to increase to higher levels thanpreviously anticipated through the remainder of 2006 and prices of gold, commodities and equities have fallensharply as a result.

  The impact of the tighter policies may not be felt until next year and the 2006 GDP forecasts for most regions havebeen raised, reflecting the strong ongoing momentum from the first quarter. The Euro-zone is expected to see acontinued improvement in the second quarter and the growth forecast for 2006 has been increased to 2.0%. The 2006forecast for Japan has also been revised up to 3.0% and the forecast for China has been raised to 9.5%. In the case ofthe US economy, however, higher interest rates and high energy costs are expected to affect consumer spending thisyear and the growth forecast for 2006 has been cut to 3.3% from 3.4%. Projections for economies exposed tocommodity prices have also been reduced in some cases. Overall, these various adjustments cancel out and theforecast for world GDP growth in 2006 is unchanged at 4.7%. 

The OPEC Reference Basket early in May peaked at an all-time high of $68.37/b as geopolitical tensions continuedto dominate market sentiment amid fears of a possible supply shortfall. However, as the month progressed, healthycrude oil stock levels amid ample supplies eased market concern, sending the Basket as low as $62.51/b beforepicking up again at the end of the month. As a result, the Basket average $65.11/b in May, a marginal increase of 67or over 1% from the previous month. In June, the Basket continued to experience volatile movement rising to$66.48/b early in the month before trending downward to stand at $ 63.02/b on 16 June. 

US gasoline stock-builds over the last couple of weeks as a result of higher domestic production and imports havesoftened the bullish sentiment in the US product market and put pressure on refining margins, especially heavy crudeoil. European spot and futures product markets have also been affected recently by the bearish movement in USgasoline stocks, but generally product prices in May have overtaken their corresponding benchmark Brent crudeallowing refinery margins to surge by $2.08 to record $5.80/b. Looking ahead, with the return of refineries frommaintenance in the USA and Europe, refinery margins in these areas may soften further if the current low pace ofdemand growth continues. In Asia, the ongoing heavy maintenance schedule could support product prices andrefinery margins in June, but they may lose part of their strength as refineries come back onstream from July onward. 

OPEC spot fixtures surged sharply in May to average 14.4 mb/d, up 2.4 mb/d or 20% from the previous month and1.7 mb/d higher than a year earlier. The uptrend was a result of high bookings as refineries began to return fromseasonal maintenance. Non-OPEC spot fixtures also increased, rising 0.4 mb/d to stand at 7.8 mb/d. However,sailings from OPEC moved down 1.4 mb/d to 22.9 mb/d due partly to the decline in OPEC fixtures during theprevious month. The increase in bookings translated into a tight tanker market where almost all routes saw significantgrowth in freight rates and reversed the continuous downward trend displayed since February 2006. In the VLCCsector, freight rates for shipping crude oil from the Middle East to the east increased on average by 20% andincreased by one-third for tankers moving to the west. Following a similar trend, the product tanker marketstrengthened further, especially in the east where spot freight rates increased by more than 100 points or around 50%on average.

  World oil demand in 2006 is forecast to grow 1.4 mb/d or 1.6% to average 84.6 mb/d, broadly unchanged from lastmonth’s estimate. Even though the largest share of the increase in world oil demand growth is mainly in theDeveloping Countries, signs indicate an easing in oil demand, partly due to the high oil prices. In contrast to theprevious quarter, US oil demand in the second quarter is keeping up with the high 3.4% economic growth, displayinga y-o-y increase of 0.2 mb/d in that quarter. In the Middle East, oil demand has been revised up a slight 30,000 b/d tostand at 6.1 mb/d, representing a y-o-y increase of 0.3 mb/d. China’s strong economic boom has increased oil demandin the first half, resulting in an upward revision of 20,000 b/d for the entire year. Chinese oil demand is now expectedto grow by almost 0.5 mb/d to average 7 mb/d in 2006. 

In 2006, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 51.4 mb/d, representing an increase of 1.2 mb/d over 2005, but adownward revision of 84,000 b/d versus the previous assessment. The adjustment reflects lower-than-expectedproduction growth from Canada, Australia, Angola, and Mauritania due to unexpected technical issues affecting thestart-up or production of some key projects. However, these adjustments have been partly offset by upward revisions inother countries, particularly Argentina, Russia, and Kazakhstan. Growth is expected to accelerate rapidly from Juneonwards, consistent with previous estimates. Preliminary data for April 2006 puts total non-OPEC supply at 50.5 mb/d.Looking at May, preliminary estimates indicate that non-OPEC supply exceeded 51 mb/d, which is a record for thegroup. Total OPEC crude oil production averaged 29.5 mb/d in May, a drop of 100,000 b/d from last month.

Preliminary data puts OECD crude oil imports for May at 31.7 mb/d, up 51,000 b/d, and product imports at11.0 mb/d, a gain of 37,000 b/d over the previous month. US crude oil imports showed a significant growth of243,000 b/d to hit 10.0 mb/d, their highest level so far this year. Similarly, product imports surged by around 610,000b/d or 20%, driven by blending components. Compared to a year earlier, net crude oil imports (minus exports)declined by 150,000 b/d, while net product imports increased nearly 690,000 b/d. In contrast, Japan’s net crude oiland product imports fell 235,000 b/d and 128,000 b/d respectively, due to lower demand. In China, net crude oilimports in April increased by 80,000 b/d to 2.8 mb/d, but remained 3% higher than a year earlier. Net productimports also increased by 51,000 b/d to average 0.5 mb/d. India’s total net crude oil and product imports in Aprilaveraged 1.9 mb/d, an increase of 53,000 b/d or 3% compared to a year earlier. 

US commercial oil stocks experienced a substantial build of 22 mb to stand at 1,028.8 mb in May. The overall levelwas 2% and 5% higher than the year-ago level and the five-year average. Crude oil stocks declined by 0.3 mb in Mayfrom the previous month while gasoline inventories experienced a build, rising by 10.8 mb leaving the level at210.2 mb, which is still below the one-year and the five-year average. Commercial oil stocks in Eur-16 (EU-15 plusNorway) fell by 13,000 b/d to 1,148.2 mb which stemmed from stock-draws on both crude oil and middle distillates,while gasoline inventories experienced a modest rise. Nevertheless, the overall inventory level remained at 3.7%above the upper end of the average range for this time of year and 8.4% above the five-year average. Totalcommercial oil inventories in Japan rose at a more moderate rate to reach 171.6 mb, but remains at comfortable levelsof 12.2% and 1.4% above last year and the five-year average, respectively. The build relied entirely on crude oilstocks as total product inventories inched down to 58.1 mb. The estimated demand for OPEC crude in 2006 is expected to average 28.7 mb/d, representing an upward revision of0.1 mb/d versus last month. On a quarterly basis, the new forecast shows that demand for OPEC crude is expected at29.8 mb/d in the first quarter, 28.2 mb/d in the second, 28.3 mb/d in the third and 28.6 mb/d in the fourth.