2006年9月石油市场月报(2006)MOMR September 2006(2006)

在上半年的强劲表现之后，2006年的国内生产总值增长估计数已作了修订。能源价格的下降和消费者收入的稳定增长应能缓和预期的放缓。据预测，2006年欧元区的国内生产总值将增长2.2%，高于2%，而美国的国内生产总值也略有增长，达到3.4%。企业投资有望保持日本经济的增长势头，因为产能过剩和稳定的利润将维持企业的现金流。尽管消费支出有所下降，但GDP增长率仍应为2.8%。中国经济继续表现良好，无视减速预期。2006年，中国预计将增长10.2%。这些对经合组织和发展中经济体预测的上调，将2006年世界经济增长预期从4.8%上调至5%。今年强劲的经济势头对2007年的增长预测没有太大影响。事实上，高水平的经济活动加剧了通胀上升和利率进一步上升的变化。2007年，美国经济增长预计将降至2.6%，尽管欧元区和日本的表现最近有所改善，如果美国进口增长放缓，这些地区明年不太可能实现强劲增长；此外，美元走软将降低出口竞争力。随着财政政策收紧和日本可能只实现1.9%的增长，欧元区预计在2007年仅增长1.5%。预计2007年发展中国家的经济增长率也将下降，降至5.4%，中国也可能适度减速至9%。世界经济预计明年将增长4.3%。这些增长率表明，2003年开始的扩张将以健康的速度继续下去。无论如何，重大风险的数量都不会影响前景。美国住房市场放缓的影响是不可预测的，随着闲置产能的边际被削弱，近期单位劳动力成本的飙升可能预示着未来通胀率的上升。货币当局在遇到挫折时几乎没有调整政策的余地，而降低预算赤字的需要减少了财政刺激，尤其是在经合组织国家。全球失衡仍然是汇率稳定和贸易继续自由化的威胁。在全球制造业增长放缓的环境下，发展中国家明年可能还将面临商品价格的下降。欧佩克的参考篮子在8月份出现了波动，其间的发展情况喜忧参半。俄罗斯安达拉斯卡（andAlaska）的输油管道中断将油价推高至创纪录高位，8月8日，该篮子原油价格最高达到72.67美元/桶。不过，地缘政治局势的缓和缓和了市场情绪，使篮子在本月底前跌破63美元的水平。不，该篮子平均价格为68.81美元/桶。下跌趋势背后的其他因素是，亚洲炼油厂的开工率下降，原因是利润率下降、美国驾驶季节结束以及冬季前充足的冬季蒸馏油供应。9月的头几周，篮子价格进一步下跌，9月14日跌至59.22美元/桶，自上个月的峰值以来，下跌了近14美元/桶，再次显示了市场的波动程度。由于需求放缓、产量增加和夏季驾车季结束，产品市场继续失去早先的强劲势头。因此，全球各地的产品市场情绪发生了重大变化，给炼油厂利润率带来下行压力。9月份，汽油和燃料油市场的持续看跌势头可能对炼油厂利润率造成进一步的下行压力。尽管库存水平良好，但中间馏分油市场仍相对强劲，这将导致未来几个月利润率保持健康。此外，欧洲秋季炼油厂维护工作较以往更深入，美国零售水平向超低硫柴油（ULSD）过渡（从10月15日起生效），也可能为未来的产品和原油价格提供支撑。8月份，欧佩克的现货供应量下降了60万桶/日，平均为130万桶/日，主要原因是中东/亚洲地区的现货供应量下降。不过，与一年前相比，欧佩克的现货供应量仍高出50万桶/日。有限的可用吨位继续支撑原油油轮市场，运价高于历史平均水平，特别是在超大型油轮和苏伊士型油轮领域。从中东向东和向西移动的超大型油轮的费率比一年前分别高出90%和50%。同样，西非和美国墨西哥湾沿岸之间的苏伊士型油轮交易以及那些从事跨大西洋业务的公司的价格同比增长了66%。清洁油轮呈现出混合模式，东、西市场的走势通常相反。苏伊士以东的运价猛增了38%左右，而苏伊士以西的大部分航线则出现了疲软。2006年世界石油需求增长率自上一个月环比下降了10万桶/日，降至120万桶/日，因为最近的数据显示，今年上半年的需求低于预期。美国最新数据显示，尽管汽油价格稳定，但苏联汽油需求仅增长0.7%，远低于1.6%的年平均水平。这导致北美第二季度和第三季度石油需求分别下调了0.2 mb/d和0.1 mb/d。占世界石油需求增长92%的发展中国家，预计今年的增量需求为60万桶/日。中国经济增速继续超过预期，到年底石油需求增速可能达到8.3%。2007年世界石油需求增长预测仍维持在130万桶/日或1.5%。与今年一样，2007年石油需求增长的最大份额将来自发展中国家。2006年，非欧佩克国家的石油平均供应量预计为5110万桶/日，比上一年增加110万桶/日，与上一次评估基本持平。由于普拉德霍湾可能比先前设想的更早重新启动，美国的估计可能会有轻微的上调。7月和8月的初步数据显示，非欧佩克国家的总供应量分别约为5090万桶/日和5080万桶/日，同比分别增长110万桶/日和90万桶/日。明年，非欧佩克国家的石油平均供应量预计为5300万桶/日，比2006年增加180万桶/日。2007年的增长预测保持不变。8月份，欧佩克的产量为2980万桶/日，比上个月修正后的产量增加了10万桶/日。经合组织原油进口连续第五个月增长，达到3200万桶/日的10个月高点，较上月和上年同期增加10万桶/日。美国和日本的原油进口分别增长9万桶/日和20万桶/日，达到平均1040万桶/日和420万桶/日。中国的原油进口下降36.3万桶/日，是今年以来最大的下降，7月份达到平均250万桶/日。尽管有所下降，2006年1-7月期间，中国原油进口量平均为290万桶/日，同比增长13%。相比之下，印度原油进口量增长6.4万桶/日，接近220万桶/日，比上月增长3%。8月份，美国商业石油库存总量为1030万桶，或30万桶/日，与上月相比达到106670万桶。目前库存比去年和五年平均水平分别高出4.3%和7.2%。尽管有250万桶原油被抽走，但原油库存无论从成交量还是远期覆盖率上都保持在令人满意的水平。汽油价格本月进一步下跌，但仍远高于去年同期水平和五年平均水平。8月份，16欧元（欧盟15国加上挪威）的商业石油总库存较前一个月减少840万欧元，但仍与去年同期持平，比五年平均水平高出6%。抽签集中在中间馏分油和原油库存上。相比之下，日本7月份的商业库存总量略增100万件，达到18390万件，但仍低于去年水平和5年平均水平。中间馏分油库存的增加和原油库存的恢复抵消了汽油和剩余燃料油库存的损失。预计2006年欧佩克原油需求平均为2890万桶/日，较上月下降20万桶/日。2007年，欧佩克原油的平均需求预计为2810万桶/日，与2006年相比，阿德克林原油的需求量为80万桶/日。该预测显示，按季度计算，欧佩克原油的需求预计在第一季度为2920万桶/日，第二季度为2700万桶/日，第三季度为2800万桶/日，第四季度为2840万桶/日。

Estimates of GDP growth for 2006 have been revised up following the strong performance of the first half of theyear. Lower energy prices and steady growth in consumer incomes should moderate the expected slowdown. TheGDP of the Euro-zone is forecast to grow by 2.2% in 2006, up from 2%, and the estimate for the USA has also beenraised slightly to 3.4%. Business investment is expected to maintain the momentum of the Japanese economy as areduction in excess capacity and solid profits should maintain corporate cash flows. GDP growth should be 2.8%despite some weakening in consumer spending. The Chinese economy continues to perform well, defyingexpectations of deceleration. In 2006 China is expected to grow by 10.2%. These upward revisions to forecasts forboth OECD and developing economies have raised the 2006 forecast for world growth to 5% from 4.8%. The strong economic momentum of this year has not had much impact on growth forecasts for 2007. In fact thedangers of higher inflation and further increases in interest rates have been intensified by the high level of activity.US economic growth is forecast to fall to 2.6% in 2007 and despite the recent improvement of the performance of theEuro-zone and Japan, it is unlikely that these regions will be able to grow strongly next year if US import growthsoftens; moreover a weaker dollar will reduce export competitiveness. The Euro-zone is expected to grow by only1.5% in 2007 as fiscal policy tightens and Japan may only achieve 1.9%. Growth in developing countries is alsoexpected to be lower in 2007, falling to 5.4% and China may also see modest deceleration to 9%. The world economyis forecast to grow by 4.3% next year. These growth rates suggest that the expansion which began in 2003 is set to continue at a healthy pace. Neverthelessa number of significant risks cloud the outlook. The impact of the housing slowdown in the USA is unpredictable andthe recent jump in unit labour costs may foreshadow higher inflation ahead as margins of spare capacity are eroded.Monetary authorities have little scope to adjust policy in case of setbacks and the need to reduce budget deficitsimplies less fiscal stimulus, especially in OECD countries. Global imbalances remain a threat to the stability ofexchange rates and the continued liberalisation of trade. Developing Countries may also face declines in commodityprices next year in a climate of slower growth in world manufacturing. The OPEC Reference Basket was volatile in August amid mixed developments. Pipeline outages in Russia andAlaska pushed prices to record-highs with the Basket peaking at $72.67/b on 8 August. However, easing geopoliticaldevelopments calmed market sentiment, allowing the Basket to drop below the $63 level by the end of the month. InAugust, the Basket averaged $68.81/b. Other factors behind the down trend were lower refinery run rates in Asia dueto weaker margins, the end of the US driving season and ample winter distillate supplies ahead of winter. The Basketfell further in the first weeks of September, dropping to $59.22/b on 14 September, a loss of almost $14/b since theprevious month’s peak, demonstrating yet again the degree of volatility in the market. Product markets continued to lose their earlier strength on slowing demand, higher production and the end of thesummer driving season. As a result, product market sentiment changed significantly across the globe, puttingdownward pressure on refinery margins. In September, the continuation of the bearish momentum in the gasoline andfuel oil markets may exert further downward pressure on refinery margins. Despite healthy stock levels, the marketfor middle distillates has remained relatively strong, which should result in healthy margins over the next fewmonths. Moreover, deeper-than-usual refinery maintenance in Europe in autumn and the transition to ultra-lowsulphur diesel (ULSD) at retail level in the USA (effective from 15 October onwards) could also provide support toproduct and crude prices in the future. OPEC spot fixtures fell 0.6 mb/d to average 13.0 mb/d in August, mainly as a result of the drop in Middle East/Asiafixtures. Compared to a year earlier, however, OPEC spot fixtures remained 0.5 mb/d higher. Limited tonnageavailability continued to support the crude oil tanker market with freight rates higher than historical averages,particularly in the VLCC and Suezmax sectors. Rates for VLCCs moving from the Middle East eastbound andwestbound were 90% and 50% higher than a year earlier. Similarly, Suezmaxes trading between West Africa and theUS Gulf Coast and those doing trans-Atlantic business saw rates displaying 66% growth y-o-y. Clean tankers sawmixed patterns with East and West markets generally moving in opposite directions. Rates for East of Suez jumpedby around 38% while most of the West of Suez routes softened. World oil demand growth in 2006 has been revised down by 0.1 mb/d since the last MOMR to stand at 1.2 mb/d, asrecent data shows weaker-than-expected demand in the first half of the year. The latest US data revealed that USsummer gasoline demand grew by only 0.7%, well below the annual average of 1.6% despite the stabilization ofgasoline prices. This has led to downward revisions of 0.2 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d to second- and third-quarter oil demandfigures for North America. Developing Countries, which account for 92% of world oil demand growth, are expectedto see incremental demand of 0.6 mb/d for the year. China’s accelerating economy continues to exceed expectationsand oil demand growth could reach 8.3% by year-end. World oil demand growth forecast for the year 2007 remainsunchanged at 1.3 mb/d or 1.5%. As in the current year, the lion’s share of oil demand growth in 2007 will come fromDeveloping Countries. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2006 is expected to average 51.1 mb/d, representing an increase of 1.1 mb/d over theprevious year and broadly unchanged from the last assessment. The estimate for the USA may be subject to a slightupward revision now that Prudhoe Bay may restart earlier than previously assumed. Preliminary data for the month ofJuly and August puts total non-OPEC supply at around 50.9 mb/d and 50.8 mb/d, representing y-o-y growth of1.1 mb/d and 0.9 mb/d respectively. Next year, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 53 mb/d, representing anincrease of 1.8 mb/d versus 2006. The 2007 growth forecast remains unchanged. In August, OPEC production stoodat 29.8 mb/d, an increase of 0.1 mb/d from the revised previous month. OECD crude oil imports continued to increase for the fifth consecutive month to hit a 10-month high of 32.0 mb inAugust, a rise of 100,000 b/d from the previous month and a year earlier. US and Japan’s crude oil imports sawrespective gains of 90,000 b/d and 200,000 b/d to average 10.4 mb/d and 4.2 mb/d. China’s crude oil imports fell363,000 b/d, the steepest decline so far this year, to average 2.5 mb/d in July. Despite the drop, for the periodJanuary-July 2006 China’s crude oil imports averaged 2.9 mb/d, which represents a 13% increase y-o-y. In contrast,India’s crude oil imports rose 64,000 b/d to nearly 2.2 mb/d, a gain of 3% above the previous month. US total commercial oil inventories saw a build of 10.3 mb or 0.3 mb/d to stand at 1,066.7 mb in August versus theprevious month. Inventories now stand 4.3% and 7.2% above the year-ago level and the five-year average. Despite a2.5 mb draw, crude oil stocks remained at comfortable levels both in terms of volume and forward cover. Gasolinestocks saw a further decline this month but were still well above the year-ago level and the five-year average. Totalcommercial oil stocks in Eur-16 (Eu-15 plus Norway) experienced a draw of 8.4 mb in August from the previous monthbut remained on par with the y-o-y level and 6% higher than the five-year average. The draw concentrated on middledistillate and crude oil inventories. In contrast, total commercial inventories in Japan rose a slight 1 mb to stand at183.9 mb in July, but remained at a deficit to last year’s level and the five-year average. A build in middle distillatestocks and a recovery in crude oil inventories offset the loss in gasoline and residual fuel oil stocks. The demand for OPEC crude in 2006 is expected to average 28.9 mb/d, representing a downward revision of0.2 mb/d versus last month. In 2007, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.1 mb/d, representing adecline of 0.8 mb/d versus 2006. On a quarterly basis, the forecast shows that demand for OPEC crude is expected at29.2 mb/d in the first, 27 mb/d in the second, 28 mb/d in the third and 28.4 mb/d in the fourth quarter.