2015年9月石油市场月报(2015)MOMR September 2015(2015)

原油价格变动8月份，欧佩克参考价格指数跌至50美元/桶以下，至平均45.46美元/桶，在持续供过于求和中国经济动荡的情况下，大部分被抛售。克鲁迪欧原油期货再次大幅下挫至多月低点，ICE布伦特原油期货收于48.21美元/桶，纽约商品交易所WTI原油期货收于42.89美元/桶。8月份，投机者继续看跌，石油期货和期权净多头头寸创下历史新低。8月份布伦特-WTI价差收窄约52美元至5.32美元/桶。世界经济世界经济增长率已下调至2015年度的3.1%和2016年度的3.4%。虽然经合组织2015年度的增长率保持在2%和2016年度的2.1%不变，但主要新兴经济体正日益面临挑战。2015年和2016年，中国和印度的增长预测分别下调了0.1个百分点，目前分别为6.8%和6.4%，印度为7.4%和7.6%。世界石油需求在2015年，世界石油需求增长预计约为146万桶/日，主要是为了反映经合组织地区好于预期的数据。2016年，世界石油需求预计在向下修正约50tb/d后将增加129mb/d。2015年，世界石油供应量预计将增加88mb/d，随后向下修正约72tb/d，原因是美国的产量低于预期。预计2016年，非运营成本供应量将小幅增加16万桶/日，较上一份报告下调110吨/日。预计2015年欧佩克天然气产量将增长19万桶/日，2016年将增长17万桶/日。据二级消息来源显示，8月份，欧佩克原油平均日产量为3154万桶，大西洋盆地的产品市场和炼油业务产品市场表现喜忧参半。在驾驶季节即将结束的推动下，看跌情绪导致美国炼油厂利润率下降，而在欧洲，利润率在桶中间部分复苏后保持健康。亚洲利润率显示，由于区域需求强劲，中间馏分油略有回升，部分缓解了对产品供过于求的担忧。8月份，油轮市场看跌情绪主导脏油轮市场，超大型油轮、苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮的运价较上月有所下降。运价下降，主要是由于吨位供应，而吨位需求仍然有限。清洁油轮平均运价下降，主要是由于苏伊士西部运价下降和市场活动。8月份，欧佩克的现货供应量上升至平均1220万桶/日，欧佩克的出海量上升至2411万桶/日。7月份，商业石油库存进一步上升，达到2925万桶。在这个水平上，它们比最近五年的平均水平高出202MB，原油和产品的asurplus分别约为163MB和39MB。就远期覆盖天数而言，经合组织商业库存为63.3天，比最近五年的平均水平高出4.8天。2015年，欧佩克原油供需平衡预计为2930万桶/日，比上一次评估高出10万桶/日，比上一年增加40万桶/日。2016年，预计所需石油产量为3030万桶/日，比上个月的估计高出20万桶/日，比今年的估计水平高出约100万桶/日。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket fell below $50/b in August to average $45.46/b, mostlyattributed to sell-offs amid enduring oversupply and Chinese economic turbulence. Crudeoil futures plunged sharply again to multi-month lows, with ICE Brent ending at $48.21/band Nymex WTI at $42.89/b. Speculators continued to be bearish in August with net-longpositions in oil futures and options at record lows. The Brent-WTI spread narrowed about52 to $5.32/b in August.World EconomyWorld economic growth has been revised down to 3.1% for 2015 and to 3.4% for 2016.While OECD growth remains unchanged at 2.0% for 2015 and 2.1% in 2016, majoremerging economies are increasingly facing challenges. China’s and India’s growthforecasts have been revised down by 0.1 percentage points to now stand at 6.8% and6.4% for China and at 7.4% and 7.6% for India in 2015 and 2016, respectively.World Oil DemandIn 2015, world oil demand growth is expected to be around 1.46 mb/d after an upwardrevision of around 84 tb/d, mainly to reflect better-than-expected data from OECD region.In 2016, world oil demand is anticipated to rise by 1.29 mb/d after a downward revision ofaround 50 tb/d.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 0.88 mb/d in 2015, following a downwardrevision of around 72 tb/d, due to lower-than-expected output in the US. In 2016, nonOPECoil supply is expected to increase slightly by 0.16 mb/d, a downward revision of110 tb/d from the previous report. OPEC NGLs are expected to grow by 0.19 mb/d in 2015and 0.17 mb/d in 2016. In August, OPEC crude production averaged 31.54 mb/d,according to secondary sources.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets in the Atlantic Basin showed a mixed performance. Bearish sentiment,fueled by the approaching end of the driving season, caused US refinery margins to drop,while in Europe, margins remained healthy on the back of some recovery in the middle ofthe barrel. Asian margins showed a slight recovery in middle distillates on strong regionaldemand amid some run cuts, partially easing concerns over product oversupply.Tanker MarketBearish sentiment dominated the dirty tanker market in August with freight rates forVLCCs, Suezmax and Aframax registering a drop from the previous month. Freight ratesdeclined, mainly as a result of tonnage availability while tonnage demand remains limited.Average clean tanker freight rates were down, mainly on the back of lower freight rates andmarket activity in west of Suez. In August, OPEC spot fixtures rose to average 12.20 mb/d,and OPEC sailings increased to stand at 24.11 mb/d.Stock MovementsOECD commercial oil stocks rose further in July to stand at 2,925 mb. At this level, theywere 202 mb higher than the latest five-year average, with crude and products indicating asurplus of around 163 mb and 39 mb, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover,OECD commercial stocks stood at 63.3 days, 4.8 days above the latest five-year average.Balance of Supply and DemandDemand for OPEC crude is estimated at 29.3 mb/d in 2015, 0.1 mb/d higher than theprevious assessment and up by 0.4 mb/d from the previous year. In 2016, required OPECcrude is projected at 30.3 mb/d, 0.2 mb/d higher than the previous month’s assessment,and around 1.0 mb/d above the estimated level of this year.