2015年3月石油市场月报(2015)MOMR March 2015(2015)

原油价格变动

欧佩克2月份的参考价格篮子平均为54.06美元/桶，上涨9.68美元或近22%，原因是欧洲和亚洲需求迅速回升，市场对油价可能已触底持乐观态度。ICE布伦特原油价格上涨9.04美元，至58.80美元/桶，纽约商品交易所（Nymex）上涨3.40美元，至50.72美元/桶。布伦特原油/桶价差扩大至8美元/桶以上。

世界经济

2014年世界经济增长率目前为3.3%，高于上一份报告中的3.2%。2015年全球经济增长率保持在3.4%不变。OECD2014年和2015年的增长率分别为1.8%和2.2%。中国2014年和2015年的增长预期分别为7.4%和7.0%。印度统计局对2014年和2015年的经济增长预测进行了大幅修订，分别上调至7.2%和7.5%。俄罗斯目前预计2015年将收缩3.2%，而上一份报告则收缩2.4%。巴西2015年的增长率也从之前的0.7%下调至0.2%。

世界石油需求

2014年世界石油需求增长的估计值与上一份报告基本一致，为96万桶/日。2015年，全球石油需求平均增长为117万桶/日，与上个月相比相对不变。预计2015年石油需求增长的近一半来自中国和中东。

世界石油供应

2014年非欧佩克国家石油供应增长预计为204万桶/日，较上一份报告上调了0.05万桶/日，主要原因是2014年第四季度增长强于预期。2015年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应预计将增长85万桶/日，与之前的评估结果持平。据预测，2015年欧佩克天然气产量将增长19万桶/日。此外，据次要消息来源，欧佩克原油产量下降14万桶/日，至30.02万桶/日。

产品市场和炼油业务

2月份，大西洋流域的产品市场继续走强。在寒冷天气提振取暖燃料需求之际，美国的大型维修季节和一些停电事件助长了市场更加乐观的情绪。与此同时，在强劲的轻质馏出油需求的支撑下，亚洲市场维持了上个月的大部分复苏，这使得利润率保持健康。

油轮市场

二月份脏油轮的即期运价涨跌互现。超大型油轮和苏伊士型油轮运价逆势下跌，主要是受东部活动量低和假期的影响，而莱芙拉型油轮运价上涨，部分原因是仓位清单收紧、天气状况和港口延误。所有报告航线的运费仍高于一年前的同一个月。

股票变动

经合组织（OECD）1月份商业石油库存下降500万桶，至26.95亿桶。在这个水平上，库存比五年平均水平高出2200万件。原油出现5400万桶的盈余，而成品油库存仍低于5年平均水平3200万桶。就远期覆盖天数而言，经合组织商业股为59.3天，比第五年平均水平高出1.5天。

供需平衡

据估计，2014年欧佩克原油需求为2910万桶/日，与之前的评估基本持平。2015年，欧佩克原油需求量预计为2920万桶/日，较上个月有所变化。

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $54.06/b in February, representing a gain of $9.68or nearly 22% amid a pickup in prompt demand from Europe and Asia and optimism thatoil prices may have reached bottom. ICE Brent rose $9.04 to $58.80/b, while Nymex WTIgained $3.40 to stand at $50.72/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to above $8/b inFebruary. 

World Economy 

World economic growth for 2014 is now seen at 3.3%, up from growth of 3.2% in theprevious report. Global economic growth in 2015 remains unchanged at 3.4%. The OECDgrowth estimate is unchanged at 1.8% for 2014 and 2.2% in 2015. China’s growth forecastremains at 7.4% for 2014 and 7.0% for 2015. The growth forecasts for India in 2014 and2015 have been revised higher to 7.2% and 7.5%, respectively, following large revisions bythe country’s statistical office. Russia is now expected to see a contraction of 3.2% in 2015,compared to a contraction of 2.4% in the previous report. Brazil’s growth in 2015 has alsobeen revised lower to 0.2%, from 0.7% previously. 

World Oil Demand 

The estimate for world oil demand growth in 2014 remains broadly in line with the previousreport at 0.96 mb/d. For 2015, global oil demand growth is expected to average 1.17 mb/d,relatively unchanged from the previous month. Almost half of 2015 oil demand growth isprojected to come from China and the Middle East. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2014 is now expected at 2.04 mb/d, following an upwardrevision of 0.05 mb/d from the last report, mostly due to stronger-than-expected growth in4Q14. In 2015, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to grow by 0.85 mb/d, unchanged fromthe previous assessment. OPEC NGLs in 2015 are forecast to grow by 0.19 mb/d. InFebruary, OPEC crude production declined by 0.14 mb/d to 30.02 mb/d, according tosecondary sources. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Product markets continued strengthening in the Atlantic Basin in February. The morebullish sentiment was fuelled by the heavy maintenance season and some outages in theUS, at a time when colder weather boosted demand for heating fuels. Meanwhile, theAsian market maintained most of the previous month’s recovery with support from strongerlight distillate demand, which allowed margins to remain healthy. 

Tanker Market 

Dirty tanker spot freight rates were mixed in February. VLCC and Suezmax ratesencountered declines, mainly on the back of low activity and holidays in the east, whileAframax freight rates increased partially as a result of a tightening positions list, weatherconditions and port delays. Freight rates on all reported routes remain higher than thesame month a year ago. 

Stock Movements 

OECD commercial oil stocks fell in January by 5.0 mb to stand at 2,695 mb. At this level,inventories are 22 mb higher than the five-year average. Crude showed a surplus of54 mb, while product stocks remained 32 mb below the five-year average. In terms of daysof forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 59.3 days, 1.5 days higher than thefive-year average. 

Balance of Supply and Demand 

Demand for OPEC crude is estimated at 29.1 mb/d in 2014, broadly unchanged from theprevious assessment. In 2015, required OPEC crude is projected at 29.2 mb/d, alsounchanged from a month earlier.