2015年5月石油市场月报(2015)MOMR May 2015(2015)

原油价格变动4月份，在各种看涨因素的支撑下，欧佩克的参考篮子升至今年最高值。篮子价格上涨4.84美元，至57.30美元/桶，尽管同比涨幅明显下降。ICE布伦特原油期货合约上涨4.20美元，至61.14美元/桶，纽约商品交易所（Nymex）原油期货价格上涨6.77美元，至54.63美元/桶。2015年世界经济增长率已从之前的3.4%下调至3.3%，与去年的增长一致。这主要归功于美国，继2015年第一季度增长乏力之后，美国经济增长率从2.9%调整为2.6%。欧元区和日本的汇率分别为1.3%和0.8%。在新兴市场，中国从7.0%降至6.9%，巴西从0.2%降至-0.4%。俄罗斯和印度的石油需求分别保持在-3.2%和7.5%的水平。2015年世界石油需求预计将略高于118万桶/日，而上一年的增长为96万桶/日。对2015年增长率的小幅上调主要反映了对经合组织（OECD）美国石油需求上升的预期。2015年，世界石油供应国欧佩克石油供应增长预计为68万桶/日，而上一年为217万桶/日。欧佩克天然气产量继去年增长18万桶/日后，预计2015年将增长19万桶/日。据第二方消息人士称，4月份，欧佩克原油产量微增18 tb/d，平均为3084 mb/d，4月份大西洋盆地的产品市场和炼油业务产品市场喜忧参半。美国驾车季前强劲的汽油需求为打破油价顶部的价差提供了支撑；然而，随着来自欧洲的资金流入不断增加，美国海湾沿岸炼油厂的增加给中间馏分油带来了压力。在亚洲，由于供应的增加超过了强劲的区域需求，利润率下降，原因是整个油轮市场的基本面疲软。油轮市场脏船现货运价下降，主要是由于苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮市场的吨位需求有限，而超大型油轮运价较上个月上涨了17%。欧佩克和全球现货供应量分别下降4.2%和2.9%，原因是东部和西部目的地的现货供应量下降。4月份，欧佩克的现货供应量平均为1113万桶/日，欧佩克的出海量平均为2335万桶/日。3月份，商业石油库存增加了160万桶，达到2745万桶。在这一水平上，库存比五年平均水平高出9800万桶。原油过剩9900万桶，而成品油库存几乎与五年平均水平持平。就前期覆盖天数而言，经合组织商业库存为61.0天，比五年平均水平高出2.8天。2015年欧佩克原油供需平衡预计为2930万桶/日。此前，欧佩克原油的供需平衡较上月略有上升，较2014年2900万桶/日的预计增长了30万桶/日。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket rose in April to its highest value this year supported byvarious bullish factors. The Basket increased $4.84 to $57.30/b, although remainedconsiderably lower y-o-y. ICE Brent contract rose $4.20 to $61.14/b and Nymex WTIjumped $6.77 to $54.63/b.World EconomyWorld economic growth for 2015 has been revised down to 3.3% from 3.4% previously, inline with last year’s growth. This is mainly due to the US, where growth has been revised to2.6% from 2.9%, following sluggish growth in 1Q15. Euro-zone and Japan remainunchanged at 1.3% and 0.8%, respectively. In the emerging markets, China has beenrevised to 6.9% from 7.0% and Brazil to -0.4% from 0.2%. Russia and India remainunchanged at -3.2% and 7.5%, respectively.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand in 2015 is now projected to rise at a slightly higher 1.18 mb/d, comparedto growth of 0.96 mb/d in the previous year. The slight upward revision to the 2015 growthfigure mainly reflects expectations of uptick in oil requirements in the OECD America.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply growth in 2015 is expected to grow by 0.68 mb/d, compared to anincrease of 2.17 mb/d in the previous year. OPEC NGLs are expected to grow by0.19 mb/d in 2015, following growth of 0.18 mb/d last year. In April, OPEC crude oilproduction increased by a marginal 18 tb/d to average 30.84 mb/d, according to secondarysources.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets in the Atlantic Basin were mixed in April. Strong gasoline demand aheadof the US driving season lent support to crack spreads at the top of the barrel; however,middle distillates were pressured by higher refinery runs in the US Gulf Coast amidincreasing inflows from Europe. In Asia, margins fell due to weakening marketfundamentals across the barrel, as increasing supplies outweighed strong regionaldemand.Tanker MarketDirty vessel spot freight rates dropped m-o-m as a result of limited tonnage demand mainlyin the Suezmax and Aframax markets, while VLCC rates rose 17% compared to theprevious month. Both OPEC and global spot fixtures declined by 4.2% and 2.9%,respectively, on the back of lower fixtures for eastern and western destinations. In April,OPEC spot fixtures averaged 11.13 mb/d and OPEC sailings averaged 23.35 mb/d.Stock MovementsOECD commercial oil stocks rose by 16.0 mb in March to stand at 2,745 mb. At this level,inventories were 98 mb higher than the five-year average. Crude saw a surplus of 99 mb,while product stocks remained almost in line with the five-year average. In terms of days offorward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 61.0 days, 2.8 days higher than the fiveyearaverage.Balance of Supply and DemandDemand for OPEC crude in 2015 is expected at 29.3 mb/d. This follows a slight upwardadjustment from the previous month and represents a gain of 0.3 mb/d over the estimatefor 2014 of 29.0 mb/d.