2006年5月石油市场月报(2006)MOMR May 2006(2006)

2006年第一季度，全球经济保持了最近的增长模式，美国和中国都表现强劲。在去年最后一个季度飓风相关的疲软之后，美国经济增长了4.8%。中国经济几乎没有减速的迹象，因为快速增长的出口和投资将第一季度的增长推高至10.2%。由于出口和商业支出的增加，欧元区经济增长率显著提高，达到2.4%。一些亚洲经济体今年第一季度电子行业的出口需求和生产活动有所放缓，但非洲和拉丁美洲的大宗商品生产商受益于这一时期金属价格的显著上涨。到目前为止，2006年铜价上涨了80%以上。

预计2006年美国经济将增长3.4%。欧元区的商业信心正在明显改善，2006年的经济增长预期已增至1.9%。2006年对日本的预测也被修正到2.7%，对中国的预测也被提高到9.3%。这些升级是将2006年世界gdp增长预测提高到4.7%的主要原因。

欧佩克参考篮子的发展继续以地缘政治问题和美国汽油市场的发展为主导。在美国汽油库存减少的情况下，市场仍担心可能出现供应短缺。布伦特/迪拜原油的持续宽幅价差有助于增加中东原油的需求。炼油利润率的提高和季节性转变的结束支撑了市场情绪。然而，市场认为需求增长可能弱于预期，并在本月底前缓解了对美国汽油供应的担忧，这使得市场受到抑制。今年4月，西奥佩克创下64.44美元/桶的月度新高，较上月上涨6.57美元或11.35%。在5月的前两周，该篮子曾短暂触及68.37美元/桶的新纪录高位，5月16日跌至63.83美元/桶，因市场供应充足，需求预期减弱。

美国和亚洲的大型炼油厂维修计划，加上美国汽油库存持续减少，以及担心驾驶季节供应短缺，支撑了全球产品市场的看涨情绪，并提振了4月份不同市场的产品价格和炼油厂利润率。在美国总统最近就放宽汽油规格和提高乙醇进口关税发表声明后，实物和期货产品市场失去了部分先前的强劲势头。此外，随着美国春季炼油厂转型的完成，全球范围内的汽油产量上升可能加剧近期产品价格的下降趋势，导致炼油利润进一步走软。不过，鉴于炼油闲置产能紧张，加之驾驶季需求不断上升，任何意外的炼油厂停产都可能对成品油和原油价格构成支撑。

4月份，欧佩克的现货供应量连续第二个月增长，平均为1350万桶/日，这是受生产复苏和预订量增加的支撑。非欧佩克国家和欧佩克国家的原油现货供应量都出现了50万桶/日的增长。欧佩克国家的原油现货供应量较上月回升了30万桶/日，达到2410万桶/日。原油运输的现货供应量继续呈下降趋势，特别是在超大型油轮领域，由于供应充足和持续的炼油维护需求放缓，超大型油轮价格创下了10个月来的新低WS60。到本月底，运价有所改善，但与2005年的水平相比仍然疲软。相比之下，产品运价扭转了大多数航线的下降趋势，特别是新加坡/日本航线，在第四周至第一周期间，产品运价增长了60%。尽管有所恢复，但产品运价仍低于上一年。

据预测，2006年世界石油需求增长为140万桶/日，占总需求8460万桶/日的1.7%。这意味着，与上一个MOMR的增长预测相比，全球石油需求将略微下降6万桶/日，主要归因于第一季度，因为现在已经有了完整的数据。高油价导致主要是发达国家的增量需求放缓，特别是那些减少了产品补贴的国家。从地区来看，北美的石油需求增长预计将放缓20万桶/日。预计世界石油需求增长的主要份额将主要来自中国，增长50万桶/日。由于高油价继续支持该地区的经济增长，中东地区今年的石油需求增长预计也将达到30万桶/日。

2006年，非欧佩克国家的石油平均供应量预计为5150万桶/日，比去年增加130万桶/日，但较上一次评估的水平下降了92000桶/日。这一调整反映了一些国家第一季度的实际数据，但主要低于加拿大、安哥拉和苏丹下半年的预期产量增长。这种风险的供应影响，如飓风在美国墨西哥湾的恢复，以及主要国家在美国、巴西和苏丹等主要项目的潜在延误，现在已经充分反映在这一预测中。非欧佩克成员国的经济增长预计将从6月份开始迅速加速，与此前的估计一致。据第二位消息人士透露，欧佩克原油平均产量为2980万桶/日，较上月增加16.4万桶/日，主要来自伊拉克。

初步数据显示，4月份经合组织原油平均进口3170万桶/日，较上月增加1.8万桶/日，产品进口稳定在1100万桶/日。美国原油进口下降14万桶/日，至980万桶/日，日本进口增加3.5万桶/日。3月份，中国原油净进口继续下降，至270万桶/日，上个月约10万桶/日下降，原因是进口增长8.5万桶/日，而出口增长18.7万桶/日。然而，它显示的16万桶/日比一年前高。印度3月份的原油进口量为220万桶/日，净产品出口量为40万桶/日，贸易没有出现任何重大变化。

4月份美国商业石油库存微跌80万桶，至10.068亿桶。总体水平比去年和五年平均水平分别高出2%和6%。原油库存增加360万桶/日，而总产量继续下降，下降了440万桶。4月份，16欧元（欧盟15国加上挪威）的商业石油库存总量增加了360万欧元，至11.622亿欧元，原因是总产品盈余增加了580万欧元，超过了原油库存的小幅减少。这使得商业库存总量比去年增加了3.5%，比五年平均水平增加了9%左右。在印度，商业石油库存总量激增590万桶，比2月份的水平翻了两番，而且原油库存大幅增长1030万桶。

预计2006年欧佩克原油需求平均为2860万桶/日，较上月增加10万桶/日。按季度计算，第一季度为29.7，而新预测预计，第二季度欧佩克原油需求为2820万桶/日，第三季度为2820万桶/日，第四季度为2840万桶/日。值得注意的是，4月份的运营成本约为2980万桶/日，而总产能超过3250万桶/日。

     The recent pattern of global growth rates was maintained in the first quarter of 2006 with a strong performance from both theUSA and China. The US economy grew by 4.8% following hurricane-related weakness in the final quarter of last year. TheChinese economy showed little sign of deceleration as fast growing exports and investment pushed first quarter growth to10.2%. Growth in the Euro-zone showed a considerable improvement at 2.4%, thanks to exports and increases in businessspending. Some Asian economies have seen a slowdown in export demand and production activity in the electronics sector inthe first quarter, but commodity producers in Africa and Latin America benefited from the remarkable rise in metal prices inthis period. Thus far in 2006 copper prices have risen by over 80%.

  The US economy is expected to grow by 3.4% in 2006. The Euro-zone is experiencing a clear improvement in businesssentiment and the growth forecast for 2006 has been increased to 1.9%. The 2006 forecast for Japan has also been revised upto 2.7% and the forecast for China has been raised to 9.3%. These upgrades are the main reason why the forecast of worldGDP growth for 2006 has been raised to 4.7%. 

Developments in the OPEC Reference Basket continued to be dominated by geopolitical issues and developments in the USgasoline markets. The market remained concerned over a possible supply shortfall amid gasoline stock draws in the USA. Thecontinued wide Brent/Dubai spread helped increase demand for Mideast crude. Improved refining margins and the end ofseasonal turnarounds supported the market sentiment. However, the perception that demand growth might be weaker thananticipated and easing concern over US gasoline supplies towards the end of the month kept the market in check. In April, theOPEC Basket set a record monthly high of $64.44/b, representing a gain of $6.57 or 11.35% over the previous month. Overthe first two weeks of May, the Basket briefly touched a new record high of $68.37/b before declining to $63.83/b on 16 Mayin response to weaker demand expectation amid a well supplied market. 

Heavy refinery maintenance schedules in the USA and Asia, along with continued gasoline stock-draws in the USA and fearof a supply shortage during the driving season, have supported the bullish product market sentiment across the world and liftedproduct prices and refinery margins in different markets in April. Physical and futures product markets lost part of theirprevious strength following the recent statement of the US President regarding the relaxation of gasoline specifications and thelifting of the ethanol import tariffs. Additionally, with the completion of spring refinery turnarounds in the USA, risinggasoline production across the globe may compound the recent downtrend in product prices causing refining margins to softenfurther. However, given tight spare refining capacity and rising demand over the driving season, any unplanned refineryoutages could lend support to both product and crude prices. 

OPEC spot fixtures increased for the second consecutive month in April to average 13.5 mb/d, supported by the recovery inproduction and higher bookings. Both non-OPEC and OPEC spot fixtures showed the same growth of 0.5 mb/d. OPECsailings recovered from the previous month by 0.3 mb/d to stand at 24.1 mb/d. Spot rates for shipping crude oil continued theirdownward trend, especially for the VLCC sector where they hit a 10-month low of WS60 due to plentiful supply and sluggishdemand on the back of ongoing refining maintenance. Freight rates saw some improvement by the end of the month, butremained weak compared to 2005 levels. In contrast, product freight rates reversed the downward trend on most routes,particularly on the Singapore/Japan route where they enjoyed a growth of 60% between the fourth and first week. Despite therecovery, product freight rates remained lower than the previous year. 

World oil demand growth in 2006 is forecast at 1.4 mb/d or 1.7% to total 84.6 mb/d. This represents a marginal downwardrevision of 60,000 b/d to the growth forecast in the last MOMR, mainly attributed to the first quarter as complete data has nowbecome available. High oil prices have contributed to a slowing of incremental demand mainly in the Developed Countries,especially for those countries where product subsidies have been reduced. On a regional basis, oil demand growth in NorthAmerica is expected to ease by 0.2 mb/d. The major share of world oil demand growth is expected to come mainly fromChina, increasing by 0.5 mb/d. Middle East is also expected contribute 0.3 mb/d for the year as high oil prices continue tosupport economic growth in the region. 

Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 51.5 mb/d in 2006, representing an increase of 1.3 mb/d over last year, but adownward revision of 92,000 b/d versus the last assessment. The adjustment reflects actual data for several countries for firstquarter, but primarily lower than expected production growth from Canada, Angola, and Sudan in the second half. The supplyimpact of known risks, such as post-hurricane recovery in the US Gulf of Mexico as well as potential delays of major projectsin key countries such as the USA, Brazil and Sudan, are now fully reflected in this forecast. Non-OPEC growth is expected toaccelerate rapidly from June onwards, consistent with previous estimates. OPEC crude oil production averaged 29.8 mb/d inApril, according to secondary sources, representing an increase of 164,000 b/d from last month, mainly coming from Iraq. 

Preliminary data shows that OECD crude oil imports averaged 31.7 mb/d in April, an increase of 18,000 b/d over the previousmonth while product imports remained stable at 11 mb/d. US crude imports fell 140,000 b/d to 9.8 mb/d, while Japan’s importsedged up 35,000 b/d. Net crude oil imports for China continued to decline to hit 2.7 mb/d in March, around 100,000 b/d lowerthan the previous month, resulting from the 85,000 b/d growth in imports versus an 187,000 b/d increase in exports. However itshows 160,000 b/d higher than a year ago. India’s trade did not see any significant changes with crude imports at 2.2 mb/d and netproduct exports at 0.4 mb/d in March.

     US commercial oil stocks in April saw a slight decline of 0.8 mb to stand at 1,006.8 mb. The overall level remained around2% and 6% above last year and the five-year average. Crude oil inventories increased by 3.6 mb/d, while total productscontinued to decline, falling 4.4 mb. Total commercial oil stocks in Eur-16 (EU-15 plus Norway) inched up by 3.6 mb to1,146.2 mb in April as a result of a surplus in total products which rose by 5.8 mb, more than offsetting the small draw oncrude oil stocks. This left total commercial inventories 3.5% above last year and around 9% over the five-year average. InJapan, total commercial oil stocks experienced a surge of 5.9 mb, which tripled the level seen in February and was entirelydriven by a considerable 10.3 mb increase in crude oil stocks.

  Demand for OPEC crude in 2006 is expected to average 28.6 mb/d, representing an upward revision of 0.1 mb/d versus theprevious month. On a quarterly basis, the first quarter stood at 29.7, while the new forecast expects demand for OPEC crude at28.2 mb/d in the second quarter, 28.2 mb/d in the third and 28.4 mb/d in the fourth quarter. It is worth noting that OPECproduced at around 29.8 mb/d in April compared to total capacity of more than 32.5 mb/d.