2009年7月石油市场月报(2009)MOMR July 2009(2009)

石油市场亮点

今年6月，欧佩克的一篮子参考原油价格上涨11.38美元，至68.36美元，涨幅近20%，创下10月以来的最高月度平均水平。对世界经济前景、美元波动和股市上涨的相当乐观，帮助这家篮子公司股价突破70美元/桶，市场进一步进入驱动季。然而，疲软的需求和持续增长的固定产品限制了看涨情绪。7月份，随着就业率的不断提高，市场上一些更为乐观的情绪发生逆转，这一篮子货币失去了更多的阵地。7月13日，篮子下移至59.66/b。

继今年经济萎缩1.4%后，预计2010年世界经济将以2.3%的增速反弹。经合组织预计增长0.7%，高于今年的-3.9%。美国预计增长1.2%，而2009年下降2.7%；日本预计增长0.9%，而今年为6.4%。经合组织的主要担忧仍然是欧元区，预计欧元区在今年萎缩4.6%后将进一步下跌0.4%。尽管经济合作与发展组织（OECD）出现了一些令人鼓舞的迹象，但由于失业率预计将进一步增长，消费者信心依然受到抑制，许多不确定性因素依然存在。发展中的亚洲仍然是增长的主要来源，特别是中国（7.5%）和印度（6.5%）。政府刺激措施的持续性和有效性对于2009年和2010年的经济增长预期至关重要。

预计2010年世界石油需求将转好。经过连续两年的负增长，预计明年全球需求将温和增长50万桶/日。非OEC国家将占增长的大部分，增长80万桶/日。中国预计将增长30万桶/日，高于今年仅有的小幅增长。经合组织（OECD）预计，继今年下降180万桶/日后，该地区将继续收缩30万桶/日。美国消费预计将在今年急剧下降70万桶/日后反弹20万桶/日。全球经济复苏的步伐仍然是明年前景的主要风险。今年，世界石油需求增长预测保持不变，为-160万桶/日。

据预测，2010年非欧佩克石油供应将增加30万桶/日，达到5090万桶/日。巴西、美国、阿塞拜疆、哈萨克斯坦、加拿大、中国和印度被认为是nextyear增长的主要贡献者。墨西哥、英国、挪威和俄罗斯预计将经历最大的衰退。欧佩克NGLs和非传统石油预计将在2010达到5.3 Mb/d，这表明在本年度约0.5 Mb/d的大幅增长。据估计，2009年非欧佩克原油供应量将增加20万桶/日，较上一次评估略有上升；6月份，欧佩克原油平均产量为2840万桶/日，较上月增加39吨/日。

美国的汽油库存增加，加上大西洋盆地炼油厂的运营增加，抑制了产品市场的人气，对炼油利润率造成压力，尤其是在美国。在汽油需求在淡季出现不确定性、中间馏分油库存反常高企的情况下，这些情况的持续可能加深当前的看跌趋势。这可能会鼓励炼油企业提高维修计划，这将对原油基本面产生负面影响。

6月份，欧佩克的现货供应量比上月增加了8%。6月份原油油轮市场的运价比5月份上涨了32%，超大型油轮板块的月度涨幅最高。随着原油期货市场期货结构的收窄，6月份海上储油继续失去动力。在苏伊士以西市场疲软的情况下，清洁现货运费平均下降了7%。

美国商业石油库存在6月份又增加了1100万桶，连续第九次增加至近11.13亿桶。这意味着有近1亿桶的石油过剩，其中原油仅占25%，而1月份为70%。今年以来，原油库存首次降至3.5亿桶以下，下降了1600万桶，而6月份，成品油库存大幅增加2700万桶。在欧洲（EU-15 plusNorway），创纪录的高馏分油库存推动商业石油总库存升至五年期区间的上限以上。

据估计，2009年欧佩克原油需求平均为2850万桶/日，较上年下降230万桶/日。2010年，对欧佩克原油的平均需求预计为2810万桶/日，比今年下降了40万桶/日。

Oil Market Highlights 

The OPEC Reference Basket surged $11.38/b or almost 20% to average $68.36/b in June, thehighest monthly average since October. Considerable optimism over prospects for the worldeconomy, US dollar fluctuations and rising equity markets helped the Basket firm to over $70/b, asthe market moved further into the driving season. However, weak demand and continuing builds inrefined products capped the bullish sentiment. In July, the Basket lost more ground as deepeningunemployment rates reversed some of the more hopeful sentiments in the market. The Basketmoved lower to stand at 59.66/b on 13 July. 

Following a 1.4% contraction this year, the world economy is expected to rebound in 2010 withgrowth of 2.3%. The OECD is forecast to grow at 0.7%, up from -3.9% this year. The US is expectedto grow at 1.2% compared to a decline of 2.7% in 2009 and Japan is seen growing at 0.9% from acontraction of 6.4% this year. The main concern in the OECD continues to be the Euro-zone, whichis expected to decline a further 0.4% after this year’s contraction of 4.6%. Despite someencouraging signs in the OECD, many uncertainties prevail as unemployment is expected to growfurther and consumer sentiment remains restrained. Developing Asia continues to be the mainsource of growth, particularly China (7.5%) and India (6.5%). The continuity and the effectiveness ofgovernment stimulus efforts will be crucial for economic growth expectations in 2009 and 2010.

  World oil demand is expected to turn positive in 2010. After two consecutive years of negativegrowth, global demand next year is projected to show a moderate increase of 0.5 mb/d. Non-OECDcountries are seen making up the bulk of the increase, growing by 0.8 mb/d. China is projected toincrease by 0.3 mb/d, up from only minor growth this year. The OECD region is forecast to see acontinued contraction of 0.3 mb/d, following a decline of 1.8 mb/d this year. The US consumption isexpected to rebound by 0.2 mb/d after a sharp decline of 0.7 mb/d this year. The pace of the globaleconomic recovery continues to be the main risk for the outlook for next year. For the current year,the world oil demand growth forecast remains unchanged at -1.6 mb/d. 

Non-OPEC supply is forecast to increase by 0.3 mb/d in 2010 to reach 50.9 mb/d. Brazil, USA,Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Canada, China, and India are seen to be the main contributors to nextyear’s growth. Mexico, UK, Norway, and Russia are expected to experience the largest declines.OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are projected to reach 5.3 mb/d in 2010, indicating asignificant increase of around 0.5 mb/d over the current year. In 2009, non-OPEC supply isestimated to increase by 0.2 mb/d, representing a minor upward revision from the last assessment.In June, OPEC crude production averaged 28.4 mb/d, up 39 tb/d from the previous month. 

The gasoline stock build in the US along with higher refinery runs in the Atlantic Basin havedampened sentiment in the product markets, exerting pressure on refining margins, especially inthe US. The continuation of these circumstances amid uncertainty about gasoline demand over thedriving season and unseasonably high stocks for middle distillates could deepen the current bearishtrend. This might encourage refiners to move up maintenance schedules, which would negativelyimpact crude oil fundamentals.

  OPEC spot fixtures increased in June by 8% compared to the previous month. Freight rates in thecrude oil tanker market increased in June by 32% compared to May with the VLCC sector showingthe highest monthly gain. Storing at sea continued to lose momentum in June with the narrowing ofthe contango structure in the crude oil futures market. Clean spot freight rates declined by 7% onaverage with a much weaker market to the West of Suez.

  US commercial oil inventories increased a further 11 mb in June, the ninth build in a row to hitnearly 1,113 mb. This implies an overhang of nearly 100 mb with crude oil accounting for just 25%,compared to 70% in January. Crude oil inventories fell 16 mb to stand below 350 mb for the firsttime so far this year, while product inventories rose a massive 27 mb in June. In Europe (EU-15 plusNorway), record-high distillate stocks pushed total commercial oil stocks to move above the upperendof the five-year range. 

The demand of OPEC crude in 2009 is estimated to average 28.5 mb/d, a decline of 2.3 mb/d fromthe previous year. In 2010, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.1 mb/d,representing a drop of 0.4 mb/d from the current year.