2013年11月石油市场月报(2013)MOMR November 2013(2013)

在连续四个月上涨后，10月份欧佩克参考篮子下跌2.04美元，至106.69美元/桶。所有篮子组件的值都降低了，但幅度不同。由于炼油厂进入秋季季节性周转期，炼油利润率仍然较低，大部分组成部分受到原油库存高企的影响。10月大西洋两岸原油期货价格走低，冰布伦特原油期货价格下跌1.81美元，至109.44美元/桶，纽约商品交易所（Nymex）原油期货价格下跌5.68美元，至100.55美元/桶，布伦特原油期货价格价差扩大至8.90美元/桶。由于美国原油库存急剧攀升，美国期货价格面临下行压力，即使在美国政府关门后，美联储（Federal Reserve）仍保持其经济刺激计划的完整性。地缘政治紧张局势的缓和也继续降低市场的风险溢价。2013年和2014年世界经济增长预测保持不变，分别为2.9%和3.5%。经合组织的预测继续假定大多数经济体复苏，导致2014年增长1.9%，而本年为1.2%，与上一份报告持平。印度最近受到投资和资本外流减速的影响，需要对其增长数据进行向下修正，2013年的增长率为4.7%，而此前为5.0%，2014年为5.6%，高于5.8%。中国最近的刺激措施和不断增长的出口导致今年经济增长率从7.6%上升到7.8%，明年从7.7%上升到7.8%。尽管全球经济继续好转，但增长空间仍然不振，近期的发展需要密切监测。2013年世界石油需求增长比上个月的报告略有增长34 tb/d。这一修订是基于上半年的实际和初步数据，通常来自经合组织所有区域以及一些非经合组织国家，特别是非洲国家。今年世界石油需求增长目前为90万桶/日。2014年，世界石油需求增长预测保持不变，为104万桶/日。预计2013年非欧佩克石油供应将增加120万桶/日，较上一份报告略有上升。2014年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应预计将增长120万桶/日，也比上个月的报告高出很多。预计美国、加拿大、巴西、南苏丹、苏丹、哈萨克斯坦和哥伦比亚将成为明年经济增长的主要贡献者，而挪威、英国、叙利亚和墨西哥预计将出现最大跌幅。2014年，欧佩克天然气和非常规石油的平均产量为590万桶/日，比今年增长了10万桶/日。据二级消息人士透露，10月份，欧佩克原油平均日产量为2989万桶，与上月持平，10月份成品油市场表现喜忧参半。尽管石脑油出现了一些积极的迹象，但油价的季节性走弱仍在继续，而中间馏分油和燃料油在全球范围内反弹，原因是在一些地区暂时紧缩的情况下，需求略有回升。加上原油价格下跌，这有助于产品利润率回升。在油轮市场，10月份脏货现货运价涨跌互现。超大型油轮现货运价在所有报告航线上均较上月有所上涨。平均而言，超大型油轮的即期运价比一个月前高出6%。增长的主要原因是冬季季节性需求和从中东到亚洲的货运量增加。在清洁油轮市场，由于吨位需求有限，bothSuezmax和Aframax的运价下降，与上月相比，苏伊士以东和以西的油价分别下跌了3%和11%。9月份的初步数据显示，经合组织商业石油库存总量增加了750万桶。库存继续出现赤字，五年平均水平（目前为3300万桶）分为增量和产品。就远期覆盖率而言，经合组织9月份商业石油库存约为58天，比5年平均水平高出0.1天。初步数据显示，10月份美国商业石油库存总量下降了900万桶，与过去两个月的增长速度相反，但仍显示出3400万桶的盈余，为五年平均水平。增长主要集中在原油方面，原油盈余为4000万桶，而成品油则出现700万桶的赤字。2013年，欧佩克原油的平均需求量估计为2990万桶/日，与上一份报告持平，比去年下降了60万桶/日。对明年的预测也有所变化，为2960万桶/日，比今年下降了30万桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket declined by $2.04 to $106.69/b in October after four consecutivemonths of gains. All Basket component values moved lower, but by varying degrees. Mostcomponents were affected by high crude oil inventories, as refineries entered into autumn seasonalturnaround and refining margins remained low. Crude oil futures prices on both sides of the Atlanticmoved lower in October with ICE Brent down $1.81 to $109.44/b and Nymex WTI declining by $5.68to $100.55/b, which widened the Brent-WTI spread to $8.90/b. Downside pressure came on USfutures due to the sharp climb in US crude inventories, even as the Federal Reserve left itseconomic stimulus intact following the US government shutdown. Easing geopolitical tensions alsocontinued to deflate the risk premium in the market. World economic growth forecasts for 2013 and 2014 remain unchanged at a moderate level of2.9% and 3.5%, respectively. The forecast for the OECD continues to assume a recovery in mostmajor economies, leading to growth of 1.9% in 2014, compared to 1.2% in the current year,unchanged from the previous report. India has been impacted by decelerating investment andcapital outflows recently, necessitating a downward revision in its growth figures, which now stand at4.7% in 2013, compared to 5.0% previously, and 5.6% in 2014 from 5.8%. China’s recent stimulusefforts and rising exports have led to upwardly revised growth of 7.8% this year, from 7.6%previously, and 7.8% next year, from 7.7%. Although the global economy continues to improve, thepace of growth remains sluggish and near-term developments will need close monitoring. World oil demand growth in 2013 has been revised up slightly by 34 tb/d from last month’s report.This revision is based on actual and preliminary data for the first half of the year, generally comingfrom all OECD regions as well as some non-OECD countries, particularly in Africa. World oildemand growth for this year currently stands at 0.9 mb/d. For 2014, the forecast for world oildemand growth remains unchanged at 1.04 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2013 is estimated to increase by 1.2 mb/d, representing a minor upwardrevision from the previous report. In 2014, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to grow by 1.2 mb/d, alsoslightly higher than last month’s report. The US, Canada, Brazil, South Sudan & Sudan, Kazakhstanand Colombia are expected to be the main contributors to next year’s growth, while Norway, the UK,Syria, and Mexico are anticipated to see the largest declines. OPEC NGLs and nonconventional oilsare seen averaging 5.9 mb/d in 2014, indicating growth of 0.1 mb/d over the current year. InOctober, OPEC crude oil production averaged 29.89 mb/d, almost unchanged over the previousmonth, according to secondary sources.Product markets exhibited a mixed performance in October. The top of the barrel continued itsseasonal weakening, despite some positive signs for naphtha, while middle distillates and fuel oilrebounded worldwide on the back of a slight recovery in demand amid temporary tightening in someregions. Together with the fall in crude oil prices, this helped product margins to recover. In the tanker market, dirty spot freight rates saw mixed movements in October. VLCC spot freightrates exhibited gains on all reported routes from the previous month. On average, VLCC spot freightrates were 6% higher than a month ago. The increase was mainly driven by winter seasonaldemand and increased shipments from Middle East to Asia. In the clean tanker market, bothSuezmax and Aframax freight rates dropped as result of limited tonnage demand, with both Eastand West of Suez rates falling 3% and 11% compared to the previous month.Preliminary data for September shows total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 7.5 mb.Inventories continued to show a deficit with the five-year average, now at 33 mb, divided betweencrude and products. In term of forward cover, OECD commercial oil stocks stood at around 58 daysin September, 0.1 day more than the five year average. Preliminary data shows that total UScommercial oil stocks fell by 9 mb in October, reversing the build of last two months, but still showeda surplus of 34 mb with the five-year average. The gain was concentrated in crude, which indicateda surplus of 40 mb, while products showed a deficit of 7 mb.Demand for OPEC crude in 2013 is estimated to average 29.9 mb/d, unchanged from the previousreport, representing a decline of 0.6 mb/d from last year. The forecast for next year was alsounchanged at 29.6 mb/d, representing a decline of 0.3 mb/d compared to the current year.