2015年6月石油市场月报(2015)MOMR June 2015(2015)

原油价格变动

在上月看涨因素延续的情况下，欧佩克5月份参考篮子价格再度上扬，创下年内新高。本月该篮子指数平均为62.16美元/桶，涨幅为4.86美元/桶。原油需求增加、精炼产品市场坚挺和库存减少是支撑市场的关键因素。

世界经济

2015年全球经济增长预期保持不变，为3.3%，与2014年的增长一致。经合组织预计2015年的增长率为2.1%，高于去年的1.8%。由于第一季度的增长低于预期，美国2015年的增长率已下调至2.4%。欧元区2015年的增长率修正为1.4%，日本的增长率也调整为1.0%。中国和印度对2015年的预期分别保持在6.9%和7.5%不变。

世界石油需求

2015年，全球石油需求增长为118万桶/日，高于去年96万桶/日的增长，与上月的报告持平。预计2015年下半年石油消费总量将加快步伐，2015年石油需求总量将达到9250万桶/日。

世界石油供应

2015年非欧佩克石油供应预计将增长68万桶/日，与之前的预测一致，低于去年217万桶/日的强劲增长。欧佩克天然气产量预计将增长19万桶/日，至2015年平均620万桶/日，2014年增长18万桶/日。二级消息人士称，在去年，欧佩克的产量上升至3098万桶/日，上升了0.02万桶/日。

产品市场和炼油业务

5月份，大西洋盆地的产品市场发展喜忧参半。美国驾驶季节的开始推高了汽油需求，达到了五年来的最低水平。这为桶顶的裂缝扩展提供了强有力的支撑，抵消了桶底的疲软。在亚洲市场，由于维修季节的紧张，炼油厂利润率在区域需求增加的背景下有所上升。

油轮市场

受高吨位需求和活动增加的影响，5月份脏油轮市场对所有报告级别船舶的信心普遍改善。清洁油轮运价平均下降，主要是因为苏伊士西部的运价疲软。今年5月，欧佩克和中东的出航量逐月上升，除远东地区外，其他地区的出航量均有所改善。

股票变动

经合组织（OECD）4月份商业石油库存进一步上升，达到27760万桶。在这一水平上，库存比五年平均水平高1.05亿桶，其中原油和产品的盈余分别约为8900万桶和1600万桶。从远期覆盖天数来看，4月份经合组织商业股为61.3天，比五年平均水平高出3.0天。

供需平衡

预计2015年欧佩克原油需求为2930万桶/日，与上一份报告持平，比去年增加30万桶/日。欧佩克2014年原油需求量预计仍保持在2900万桶/日不变。

Crude Oil Price Movements 

Amid a continuation of the previous month’s bullish factors, the OPEC Reference Basketmoved up again in May to a new high for the year. The Basket averaged $62.16/b for themonth, representing a gain of $4.86/b. An increase in crude oil demand, firm refinedproduct markets and inventories drawdowns were key elements supporting the market. 

World Economy 

Expectations for global economic growth remain unchanged at 3.3% for 2015, in line withgrowth in 2014. The OECD is seen growing at 2.1% in 2015, up from 1.8% last year. USgrowth for 2015 has been revised down to 2.4%, due to the lower-than-expected growth inthe first quarter. Growth in the Euro-zone has been revised up to 1.4% for 2015 andJapan’s growth has also been adjusted higher to 1.0%. Expectations for China and India in2015 remain unchanged at 6.9% and 7.5%, respectively. 

World Oil Demand 

Global oil demand is seen growing at 1.18 mb/d in 2015, higher than in the previousyear’s growth of 0.96 mb/d and unchanged from last month’s report. Total oilconsumption is expected to pick up pace in 2H15, leading to a total oil demand of92.50 mb/d for 2015. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2015 is projected to grow by 0.68 mb/d, in line with the previousforecast and below last year’s strong growth of 2.17 mb/d. OPEC NGLs are forecast togrow by 0.19 mb/d to average 6.02 mb/d in 2015, following growth of 0.18 mb/d in 2014. InMay, OPEC production rose to 30.98 mb/d, up by 0.02 mb/d, according to secondarysources. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Product market developments in the Atlantic Basin were mixed during May. The start ofthe US driving season pushed up gasoline demand, hitting levels not seen in more thanfive years. This provided strong support to crack spreads on the top of the barrel andoffset the weakness seen at the bottom of the barrel. In the Asian market, refinerymargins strengthened on the back of higher regional demand amid tighteningsentiment due to the maintenance season. 

Tanker Market 

The dirty tanker market enjoyed a general improving sentiment in May for vessels in allreported classes on the back of high tonnage demand and increased activities. Cleantanker freight rates declined on average, mainly as freight rates reported on the West ofSuez were weak. In May, OPEC and Middle East sailings were higher month-on-month, asarrivals in all regions improved, except in the Far East. 

Stock Movements 

OECD commercial oil stocks rose further in April to stand at 2,776 mb. At this level,inventories are 105 mb higher than the five-year average, with crude and productsindicating surpluses of around 89 mb and 16 mb, respectively. In terms of days of forwardcover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 61.3 days in April, 3.0 days higher than the fiveyearaverage. 

Balance of Supply and Demand 

Demand for OPEC crude in 2015 is projected at 29.3 mb/d, unchanged from the previousreport and representing a gain of 0.3 mb/d over last year. The estimate for demand forOPEC crude in 2014 remains unchanged at 29.0 mb/d.