2003年11月石油市场月报(2003)MOMR November 2003(2003)

据预测，2003年世界国内生产总值将增长3.5%，比上个月的估计增长0.3%。这一增长反映了美国经济复苏的基础不断扩大，并已扩展到东南亚和日本。受10月和9月更好的就业数据支持，美国第三季度GDP年增长率高于预期，为7.2%。日本第三季度数据也超出预期，GDP年增长率为2.2%。然而，欧元区继续落后于其他发达经济体，同期增长1.6%。亚洲的增长预期变化最大。第三季度，中国经济增长约9%，2003年全年GDP增长预期提高到8.5%。印度受益于一个非常平静的季风季节，预计今年的经济增长率将达到6.8%。2003年对亚太地区的估计也从3.6%上升到3.9%。对拉丁美洲和非洲的预测没有明显变化，因为2003年对发展中国家整体增长的估计上升了0.1%至3.6%。考虑到第三季度全球经济表现好于预期，对北美和日本2004年的预测有所增加。2004年对欧洲的预测没有变化，但亚洲地区增长了0.1%。据预测，2004年全球经济将增长4.1%，这是自1990年以来仅有的一次缓慢的年增长率。继9月份的暴跌之后，欧佩克的一篮子参考原油价格上涨了2.32美元/桶或8.43%，至10月份的平均28.54美元/桶。过去一个月的强劲复苏推动今年迄今的平均水平接近价格区间机制的上限，为27.91美元/桶，而9月底为27.84美元/桶。继11月第一周小幅下跌1.73%后，该篮子指数持续反弹，在11月13日的周末平均为28.61美元/桶，11月19日接近30美元/桶大关，收盘价为29.79美元/桶。10月，产品价格上涨通常跟踪三个市场的原油涨幅，每种产品的增量增长都要考虑到地区基础。美国海湾和新加坡的炼油利润率不错，但鹿特丹的炼油利润率则跌至负值。10月份原油运价波动较大，特别是超大型油轮运价，上半月超大型油轮的高吨位运价将中东两条长距离航线的运价都压低至近WS-60，在本月的最后一周，帮助利率升至非常高的水平。石油输出国组织（OPEC）的地区租船业务恢复了前两个月的大部分亏损，10月份增加了380万桶/日，至1543万桶/日，这是2000年6月以来的最高水平。鉴于2003年和2004年经济增长前景较好，世界石油需求预测分别上调15万桶/日和31万桶/日，至78.33万桶/日和79.56万桶/日。2003年，中国的实际需求预计将增长44万桶/日，增长8.76%，这使中国在世界石油需求增长中处于前列。尽管中国在世界消费中的份额为7%，但今年中国在世界需求增长中的份额应达到33%。按第二来源计算，欧佩克10月份原油产量估计为2741万桶/日，比9月份的数字增加了25万桶。据预测，2003年非欧佩克国家石油供应量为4864万桶/日，比2002年的4776万桶/日多出88万桶/日。预计2004年非欧佩克石油供应将达到4989万桶/日，比2003年的预测增加124万桶/日。2002年和2003年FSU的净出口量估计分别为556万桶/日和634万桶/日，预计2004年将增至685万桶/日。10月3日至31日期间，美国商业地产和石油库存几乎保持不变，而原油库存继续上升，增加了630万桶。在16欧元区，由于原油库存增加了150万桶，石油库存总量减少了630万桶，主要是由于中间馏分油中含有阿德克林。9月份，日本的商业石油库存显示为230万桶，主要是由于煤油的增加。第三季度末，经合组织商业石油库存较上季度强劲增长7100万桶，目前较去年同期增长2300万桶。

World GDP is forecast to grow by 3.5% in 2003, a rise of 0.3% over last month’s estimate. This increase reflects thewidening base of the economic recovery that began in the USA and has spread to South East Asia and Japan. TheGDP of the US grew at higher than expected annual rate of 7.2% in the third quarter, supported by betteremployment data for October and September. Third quarter data for Japan also surpassed expectations with GDPrising by 2.2% at an annual rate. However, the Euro-zone continued to lag other advanced economies, growing by ameager 1.6% in the same period. Asia saw the largest changes in growth estimates. The Chinese economy grew by about 9% in the third quarter whilethe GDP growth forecast for 2003 as a whole was raised to 8.5%. India, which benefited from a very peacefulmonsoon season, is expected to see economic growth of 6.8% this year. The 2003 estimate for the Asia Pacificregion also increased to 3.9% from 3.6%. Projections for Latin America and Africa did not changed significantly asthe 2003 growth estimate for developing countries as a whole rose 0.1% to 3.6%. Forecasts for North America and Japan for 2004 were increased to take account of the better than expectedperformance the global economy in the third quarter. The forecast for Europe in 2004 was unchanged but the AsiaPacific region showed an increase of 0.1%. The world economy as a whole is forecast to grow by 4.1% in 2004, arapid annual pace that has been seen only once since 1990. Following the slump in September, the OPEC Reference Basket surged by $2.32/b or 8.43% to average $28.54/b inOctober. The strong recovery of the past month pushed the year-to-date average to approach the upper limit of theprice band mechanism at $27.91/b, compared to $27.84/b at the end of September. Following a small decline of1.73% in the first week of November, the Basket has made a sustained comeback, averaging $28.61/b for the weekending 13 November and approaching the $30/b mark on 19 November when it closed at $29.79/b. Product price increases generally tracked crude gains in all three markets in October, with regional fundamentalsfactored in the incremental rise of each product. Refining margins were good in the US Gulf and Singapore, butplunged into negative territory in Rotterdam. Crude freight rates fluctuated considerably in October, especially the VLCC rates where high tonnage availabilityduring the first half of the month depressed rates to nearly WS 60s on both long-haul routes out of the Middle East.Increasing oil supply, together with tight vessel availability, in the last week of the month helped rates to move up tovery high levels. OPEC area spot chartering regained most of the losses of the previous two month, increasing by3.8 mb/d to 15.43 mb/d in October, a level not seen since June 2000. Given higher prospects for economic growth in 2003 and 2004, world oil demand forecasts for these years have beenrevised up by 0.15 mb/d and 0.31 mb/d to 78.33 mb/d and 79.56 mb/d respectively. China’s expected rise in apparentdemand of 0.44 mb/d or 8.76% in 2003 places the country at the forefront of world oil demand growth. Despite amere 7% share of world consumption, China’s share of the world demand increase should reach 33% in the currentyear. OPEC crude oil production in October, based on secondary sources, is estimated at 27.41 mb/d, an increase of 0.25mb over the September figure. Non-OPEC oil supply for 2003 is forecast at 48.64 mb/d, which is 0.88 mb/d morethan the 47.76 mb/d estimated for 2002. Non-OPEC supply in 2004 is expected to reach 49.89 mb/d, an increase of1.24 mb/d over the 2003 forecast. Net FSU exports for 2002 and 2003 are estimated at 5.56 mb/d and 6.34 mb/drespectively, and expected to rise to 6.85 mb/d in 2004. US commercial onland oil stocks remained almost unchanged during the period of 3-31 October, while crude stockscontinued their upward trend, increasing 6.3 mb. In Eur-16, total oil stocks decreased by 6.3 mb, mainly due to adecline in middle distillates, as crude oil stocks rose 1.5 mb. In September, Japan’s commercial oil stocks displayed aslight build of 2.3 mb, mainly due to an increase in kerosene. At the end of the third quarter, OECD commercial oilstocks registered a strong 71 mb build over the previous quarter to now stand 23 mb above the same period last year.