2007年6月石油市场月报(2007)MOMR June 2007(2007)

欧佩克5月份的参考价格平均为64.36美元/桶，比上月高出97美元。美国健康的原油库存被主要在美国的一系列炼油厂故障所平衡，当时人们担心在合并的驾驶季节需求上升。对西非供应的持续关注保持了警觉。今年6月，该篮子依然不稳定，随着“贡努”气旋威胁到中东的石油基础设施和航运业，加上新的地缘政治发展，价格推高至67美元/桶，随后回落至略高于65美元/桶。6月13日，该篮子为65.56美元/桶。

据预测，2007年世界经济增长率为4.9%，略高于上个月，欧盟、中国、印度和俄罗斯的经济增长率将上调。继一季度经济增长大幅下调后，美国的经济预测又下调了0.1个百分点，至2.1%。不过，最近的数据显示，尽管房地产业持续疲软，但第二季度的增长应该会更高。自相矛盾的是，最近强劲的报告引发了债券市场的抛售，因为担心强劲的增长会引发通货膨胀并导致更高的利率。这在世界其他地区产生了连锁反应。日本经济在第一季度以3.3%的年增长率强劲增长，超过了欧盟和美国。随着就业的进一步改善，欧盟的积极经济环境将继续下去。对于发展中的国家，这一预测没有改变，但印度的经济增长被修正了0.2%至8.2%，而中国的经济增长预计为10.2%，比上个月的预测高出0.3%。

2007年世界石油需求增长预计为130万桶/日或1.5%，与之前的预测基本持平。今年迄今，美国石油需求增长了2.3%或0.47百万桶/日，推动健康的汽油消费。在中东地区，整个地区的建筑和石化行业是石油需求强劲增长的主要原因，而印度的经济活动却使4月份的石油需求上升了7.1%，即18.9万桶/日，4月份表观需求同比增长9.8%或70万桶/日，达到平均790万桶/日。中国第二季度的蓝宝石石油需求预计将增长50万桶/日，达到平均780万桶/日。2006年，由于发展中国家的历史修正，世界石油需求预测比上个月的预测增加了15万桶/日。据估计，2006年世界石油需求增长率为100万桶/日，平均为8430万桶/日，增长率为1.1%。

2007年非欧佩克石油供应预计将达到5060万桶/日，比上一年增加110万桶/日，较上一次评估下调57000桶/日。此次调整是由于美国、苏丹和俄罗斯的表现弱于预期，部分被英国和德国非常规石油的上涨所抵消。2006年，非经营性供应量平均为4950万桶/日，比2005年增加了50万桶/日，比上一次评估略有上升。今年5月，欧佩克原油总产量平均为303万桶/日，较上月下降8.27万桶/日。

炼油厂停产的持续加剧了产品市场的看涨情绪，帮助炼油厂利润率在全球范围内飙升。过去几周，美国汽油库存增加，有助于缓解产品市场的情绪。如果这一趋势继续下去，市场可能受产品方面的发展影响较小。不过，由于美国下游行业的结构性紧缩，市场可能仍面临炼油厂故障的风险，这可能会支撑未来几个月的原油价格。

欧佩克5月份的现货供应量平均为1210万桶/日，较上月增加28万桶/日，但较上年同期减少210万桶/日。根据初步数据，欧佩克的出海量下降了140万桶/日，至2310万桶/日，同比下降了80万桶/日。原油油轮市场仍然喜忧参半，中东部超大型油轮的运价在吨位需求增加的支撑下不断上涨。东部目的地在本月初支撑了利率，而西部目的地则有助于维持上涨。

初步数据显示，经合组织4月份石油净进口总量增加23万桶/日，达到平均2580万桶/日，其中大部分是由产品净进口推动的，较上月增长约15%。5月份，美国夏季原油进口增加28万桶/日，产品进口增加37万桶/日，达到390万桶/日。5月份，日本石油净进口下降25万桶/日，大部分损失来自炼油厂维护高峰期的原油。4月份，中国原油进口量增长34万桶/日，达到平均360万桶/日，产品进口量增长24%。中国原油和产品进口年增长超过18%。印度4月份原油进口量猛增31万桶/日，平均为250万桶/日，出口年增长率约为90%。

今年5月，美国商业库存总量增长了近2200万股，达到10.07亿股，创下去年9月以来的最大增幅，显示美国商业库存比5年平均水平高出1000万股。汽油库存增长490万桶，扭转了2月份以来的下降趋势。这些增长是由于进口的大幅增加而非炼油厂的产量，因为由于季节性维护和停产，产量仍低于90%。在欧盟16国（15欧元加上挪威），商业石油库存总量创下11.69亿欧元的纪录，意味着超过5年平均水平的660亿欧元盈余。4月份，日本商业石油库存下降930万桶，但初步数据显示，由于持续的大规模维修，5月份经济出现复苏。

预计2007年欧佩克原油需求平均为3060万桶/日，较上年略有下降20万桶/日。按季度计算，第一季度欧佩克原油需求量估计为3111万桶/日，随后几个季度预计分别为2950万桶/日、3060万桶/日和3100万桶/日。2006年，欧佩克原油需求量平均为3080万桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $64.36/b in May or 97 higher than in the previous month. Healthy crude oil stocks inthe USA were balanced by a series of refinery glitches mainly in the USA at a time of concern over rising demand amid theemerging driving season. Sustained concern over West African supply kept alertness in place. In June, the Basket remainedvolatile, moving higher as Cyclone Gonu threatened petroleum infrastructure and shipping in the Middle East along with newgeopolitical developments pushed prices over $67/b before dropping back down to just over $65/b. The Basket stood at$65.56/b on 13 June. 

World economic growth is forecast at 4.9% for 2007, slightly higher than last month, on upward revisions for the EU,China, India and Russia. The forecast for the US has been revised down by another 0.1 percentage points to 2.1%,following a substantial downward revision in Q1 growth. However, recent data indicate growth in Q2 should be higher,despite persistent housing sector weakness. Paradoxically, the recent stronger reports have sparked a sell-off in the bondmarket on fears that stronger growth would spark inflation and lead to higher interest rates. This has had ripple effects inother parts of the world. The Japanese economy grew briskly in Q1 at a 3.3% annual rate, outpacing both the EU and theUSA. The positive economic environment in the EU is set to continue, with further improvements in employment. ForDeveloping Countries, the forecast is unchanged, but Indian growth is revised up by 0.2% to 8.2% and China is seen togrow at 10.2%, 0.3% higher than last month’s forecast. 

World oil demand growth for 2007 is forecast at 1.3 mb/d or 1.5%, broadly unchanged from the previous forecast. Year-todate,US oil demand grew 2.3% or 0.47 mb/d, boosted by healthy gasoline consumption. In the Middle East, theconstruction and petrochemical sectors across the region were the main reason behind the strong oil demand growth, whilerobust economic activities in India pushed oil demand upward in April by 7.1% or 189,000 b/d. Due to the high summerseasonality in China, April apparent demand rose by a stunning 9.8% or 0.7 mb/d y-o-y to average 7.9 mb/d. China’sapparent oil demand in the second quarter is expected to grow by 0.5 mb/d to average 7.8 mb/d. For 2006, the world oildemand estimate was revised up by 0.15 mb/d from our last month’s estimate due to historical revisions in the DevelopingCountries. World oil demand growth for 2006 is now estimated at 1.0 mb/d or 1.1% to average at 84.3 mb/d. 

Non-OPEC supply in 2007 is expected to reach 50.6 mb/d, an increase of 1.1 mb/d over the previous year and a downwardrevision of 57,000 b/d from the last assessment. The revision was due to weaker-than-expected performance in the USA,Sudan and Russia, which were partially offset by gains in the UK and non-conventional oils in Germany. In 2006, non-OPECsupply averaged 49.5 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.5 mb/d over 2005 and a slight upward revision over the lastassessment. Total OPEC crude production averaged 30.03 mb/d in May, down 82,700 b/d from the previous month.

  The continuation of refinery outages compounded the bullish sentiment of product markets, helping refinery margins tosurge across the globe. Gasoline stock-builds in the USA over the last few weeks have helped to ease the sentiment in theproduct market. If this trend continues, the market may be less affected by developments on the product side. However,due to the structural tightness of the US downstream sector, the market is likely to remain exposed to refinery glitches,which could support crude prices in the coming months. 

OPEC spot fixtures averaged 12.1 mb/d in May, which corresponds to a 280,000 b/d increase from the previous month buta decrease of 2.1 mb/d over a year ago. According to preliminary data, sailings from OPEC fell 1.4 mb/d to 23.1 mb/d,showing a y-o-y drop of 0.8 mb/d. The crude oil tanker market remained mixed with rates increasing for VLCCs from theMiddle East supported by the increased demand for tonnage. Eastern destinations supported rates at the beginning of themonth while Western destinations helped sustain the gains.

  Preliminary data show that OECD total net oil imports increased 230,000 b/d to average 25.8 mb/d in April, mostly drivenby net product imports which increased around 15% from previous month. US crude imports increased 280,000 b/d inpreparation for the summer season in May and product imports rose 370,000 b/d to 3.9 mb/d. In May, Japan’s net oilimports dropped 250,000 b/d with most of the losses coming from crude on the back of the peak refinery maintenanceseason. China’s crude oil imports showed a rise of 340,000 b/d in April to average 3.6 mb/d and product imports increased24%. China’s crude oil and product imports rose by more than 18% on an annual basis. India’s crude oil imports increasedsharply by 310,000 b/d in April averaging 2.5 mb/d with exports increasing around 90% on an annual basis. 

Total US commercial stocks rose by almost 22 mb in May, the largest increase since last September, to stand at 1,007 mb,indicating a surplus of 10 mb above the five-year average. Gasoline stocks rose 4.9 mb, reversing the downward trenddisplayed since February. These gains were driven by a significant jump in imports rather than production from refineries asthroughputs remained below 90% due to seasonal maintenance and outages. In EU-16 (Eur-15 plus Norway), totalcommercial oil stocks hit a record of 1,169 mb, implying a surplus of 66 mb above the five-year average. Japan’s commercialoil stocks fell 9.3 mb in April but preliminary data indicate a recovery in May due to the ongoing heavy maintenance. 

 Demand for OPEC crude in 2007 is expected to average 30.6 mb/d, representing a slight decline of 0.2 mb/d from the previousyear. On a quarterly basis, the demand for OPEC crude is estimated at 31.11 mb/d in the first quarter and forecast at29.5 mb/d, 30.6 mb/d and 31.0 mb/d in the subsequent quarters. In 2006, demand for OPEC crude averaged 30.8 mb/d.