2018年5月石油市场月报(2018)MOMR May 2018(2018)

原油价格变动4月份，欧佩克参考篮子（ORB）环比上涨4.67美元，涨幅7.3%，至平均68.43美元/桶，布伦特原油和迪拜原油价格分别上涨近9%，而WTI原油现货价格上涨6%。截至今年（y-t-d），or b的价值为13.85美元，或26.7%，高于去年同期的65.67美元/桶。地缘政治担忧、产品库存收紧和强劲需求为油价提供了支撑。在原油期货方面，4月份，ICE布伦特原油期货上涨5.04美元，涨幅7.6%，至71.76美元/桶，NYMEX布伦特原油期货上涨3.55美元，涨幅5.7%，至66.33美元/桶。Y-t-d、ICE布伦特原油期货上涨13.96美元，涨幅25.7%，至68.36美元/桶，而YMEX WTI原油期货上涨12.15美元，同比增长23.5%，至63.77美元/桶。受看跌的基本面影响，4月份布伦特/纽约商品交易所（TheICE Brent/NYMEX）的WTI价差大幅扩大至5.44美元/桶，为今年以来最大价差。尽管原油期货价格飙升，但投机性净多头仓位收低，不过，洲际布伦特原油的多空比进一步上升，创下历史新高。布伦特和迪拜市场结构都在强劲的即期价格和健康的现货市场的推动下进一步进入了滞销状态，而纽约商品交易所（NYMEX）的WTI在滞销状态下仍保持在同一水平。欧洲和亚洲的糖醋差距进一步扩大，而美国墨西哥湾沿岸地区的糖醋差距进一步缩小。世界经济全球GDP增长预测在2017年增长3.8%之后，2018年仍为3.8%。预计2018年美国经济增长率与上月持平，为2.7%，2017年增长2.3%。欧元区的增长率在2017年增长2.5%之后，于2018年下调至2.2%。日本2018年的增长预测仍为1.5%，2017年增长1.7%。2018年，发展中国家的GPD增长率似乎没有变化，为4.4%，上年同期增长率为4.0%。尽管印度2018年的GDP增长率在2017年达到6.3%之后小幅上调至7.3%，但中国2018年的GDP增长率在2017年达到6.9%之后仍保持在6.5%不变。巴西和俄罗斯在2017年分别增长1%和1.5%后，2018年国内生产总值增长预测分别为2.1%和1.8%。尽管对经合组织和非经合组织地区进行了一些相互抵消的调整，但2017年世界石油需求增长与上个月的评估持平。据估计，世界石油需求在2017年增长了165万桶/日，达到平均9720万桶/日。预计2018年石油需求增长将增加约165万桶/日，达到平均9885万桶/日。与上个月的评估相比，增长被调高了25 tb/日。这主要是为了说明经合组织在2008年第一季度的数据。非经合组织地区的石油需求增长也向上修正，主要是由于印度和拉丁美洲等其他亚洲地区的数据好于预期。预计2018年中国将引领石油需求增长，紧随其后的是其他亚洲国家和经合组织美洲国家。欧佩克2017年世界石油供应量略微下降0.01百万桶/日，目前显示增长0.87百万桶/日，年平均增长57.89百万桶/日。这一修正是在对历史非常规生产数据进行审查后作出的，这些数据导致了向下调整，主要是巴西的调整，以及向上调整，尤其是对于经合组织欧洲。此外，在2018，对美国、阿根廷、哥伦比亚和中国的预测，在1Q18向上修正被部分地抵消了加拿大、墨西哥、挪威、英国和巴西尔的向下调整。这导致对2018年非欧佩克石油供应量的上调，为0.01百万桶/日。与上月的评估相比，目前估计为1.72百万桶/日，平均为59.62百万桶/日。在2017年进行了一次向下修正后，预计2018年欧佩克天然气和非常规液体产量将同比增长18万桶/日，达到平均649万桶/日。根据第二来源，欧佩克原油产量在2018年4月增加了12 tb/日，达到平均3193万桶/日。大西洋盆地的产品市场和炼油业务产品市场4月份强劲上涨。在美国，炼油利润率在桶的顶部和中部都有所提高。由于计划内和计划外的炼油厂停产，炼油厂产品产量减少，加上汽油出口量破纪录，柴油库存大幅减少，美国4月份利润率创下三年来新高。在欧洲，尽管所有其他产品都出现了亏损，但在汽油和柴油联合企业的支持下，产品市场出现了复苏。与此同时，由于地区汽油市场供应量高，在桶顶出现压力，inAsia的产品市场走弱。4月份阿曼原油价格上涨，尽管春季炼油厂开始维护，但进一步加剧了亚洲市场的低迷。油轮市场脏油轮现货运价在4月份大多下降或保持在此前的低水平。超大型油轮的平均即期运价与上月相比几乎持平，苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮的运价分别下降了6%和3%-

Crude Oil Price MovementsIn April, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) rose by $4.67, or 7.3%, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average$68.43/b, with Dated Brent and Dubai rising by nearly 9% each, while spot WTI increased by 6%. Year-todate(y-t-d), the ORB value was $13.85, or 26.7%, higher at $65.67/b, compared with the same period a yearearlier. Geopolitical concerns, tightening product inventories and robust demand provided support for prices.With regard to crude oil futures, in April, ICE Brent was up $5.04, or 7.6%, at $71.76/b, while NYMEX WTIgained $3.55, or 5.7%, to stand at $66.33/b. Y-t-d, ICE Brent is $13.96, or 25.7%, higher at $68.36/b, whileNYMEX WTI has risen by $12.15, or 23.5%, to $63.77/b, compared with the same period a year earlier. TheICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread widened significantly to $5.44/b in April – the widest this year – on bearishUS fundamentals. Despite the surge in crude oil futures prices, speculative net long positions ended lower,however, long-to-short ratios in ICE Brent increased further to record highs. Both Brent and Dubai marketstructures moved deeper into backwardation on strong prompt month prices and healthy physical crudemarkets, while NYMEX WTI remained at the same level, in backwardation. The sweet/sour differentialswidened further in Europe and Asia, while in the US Gulf Coast (USGC), the spread narrowed more.World EconomyThe global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018, following growth of 3.8% in 2017. Expected USgrowth in 2018 is unchanged from the previous month at 2.7%, after growth of 2.3% in 2017. Growth in theEuro-zone was revised down to 2.2% in 2018, following growth of 2.5% in 2017. Japan’s 2018 growthforecast remains at 1.5%, after growth of 1.7% in 2017. For 2018, Developing Countries’ GPD growth is seenunchanged at 4.4%, following growth of 4.0% a year earlier. While India’s 2018 forecast was revised upslightly to 7.3%, following 2017 GDP growth of 6.3%, China’s 2018 GDP growth forecast remains unchangedat 6.5%, after 2017 growth of 6.9%. Brazil and Russia also saw an unchanged GDP growth forecast at 2.1%and 1.8% in 2018, respectively, following growth of 1% and 1.5% in 2017.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand growth for 2017 was kept unchanged from last month’s assessment, despite someadjustments to both OECD and non-OECD regions, which offset each other. World oil demand is estimatedto have grown by 1.65 mb/d in 2017 to average 97.20 mb/d. For 2018, oil demand growth is forecast toincrease by around 1.65 mb/d to average 98.85 mb/d. Growth was revised higher by 25 tb/d compared withlast month’s assessment. This is mainly to account for firm OECD data in 1Q18. Oil demand growth in thenon-OECD region was also revised upward, primarily on the back of better-than-expected data from OtherAsia, including India, and Latin America. China is anticipated to lead oil demand growth in 2018, followed byOther Asia and OECD Americas.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC supply for 2017 was revised down slightly by 0.01 mb/d to now show growth of 0.87 mb/d y-o-yand average 57.89 mb/d. The revision came on the back of a review of historical non-conventionalproduction data leading to downward adjustments, mostly for Brazil, as well as upward revisions, notably forOECD Europe. Furthermore, in 2018, upward revisions in 1Q18 to the forecasts of the US, Argentina,Colombia and China were partially offset by downward adjustments to Canada, Mexico, Norway, UK, andBrazil. This has led to an upward revision to 2018 non-OPEC supply of 0.01 mb/d. It is now estimated togrow by 1.72 mb/d y-o-y to average 59.62 mb/d, compared to last month’s assessment. Following adownward revision in 2017, OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production in 2018 are forecast togrow by 0.18 mb/d y-o-y, to average 6.49 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in April 2018 increased by12 tb/d, to average 31.93 mb/d, according to secondary sources.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets in the Atlantic Basin saw strong gains in April. In the US, refining margins strengthenedacross the top and middle of the barrel. Reduced refinery product output caused by planned and unplannedrefinery outages, along with record-breaking gasoline export levels and strong diesel inventory drawdownsdrove US margins to a record three-year high in April. In Europe, product markets saw a recovery, supportedby the gasoline and diesel complexes, despite losses in all other products. Meanwhile, product markets inAsia weakened due to pressure seen at the top of the barrel, attributed to high supply in the regionalgasoline market. Higher Oman crude prices in April, despite the onset of spring refinery maintenanceseason, further exacerbated the downturn seen in the Asian market.Tanker MarketDirty tanker spot freight rates mostly declined in April or remained at previously low levels. VLCC averagespot freight rates stayed almost flat compared with the previous month, while Suezmax and Aframax ratesdropped by 6% and 3% m-o-m, respectively. The decline in rates was attributed to limited inquiries,continuing tonnage oversupply, as well as reduced port and transit delays. Similarly, the clean tanker marketsaw lower monthly freight rates on most reported routes due to the same circumstances.Stock MovementsPreliminary data for March 2018 shows that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.7 mb to stand at2,829 mb, which is 9 mb above the latest five-year average. However, this current level of OECD stocks stillremains 258 mb above January 2014. Within the components, crude stocks in March 2018 indicated asurplus of 12 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 3 mb against the latest five-year average. Interms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in March to stand at 59.9 days, which is1.6 days lower than the latest five-year average.Balance of Supply and DemandIn 2017, demand for OPEC crude is estimated to stand at 33.0 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d higher than a year earlier. In2018, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.7 mb/d, 0.3 mb/d lower than the 2017 level