2018年3月石油市场月报(2018)MOMR March 2018(2018)

原油价格变动

2月份，ORB的平均市盈率下降了5%，六个月来首次下降，至63.48美元/桶，但仍高于两年多以来的水平。截至目前，全球原油期货价格为23.4%，或12.37美元，高于去年同期的65.25美元/桶。同样，布伦特原油期货价格下跌了397美元/桶，平均65.16美元/桶，而原油现货价格下跌了1.55美元/桶，平均62.15美元/桶。石油期货价格也下跌，但幅度不一。本月初原油期货开始抛售，油价下跌，美国股市大幅下跌，美元坚挺。ICE布伦特原油期货价格下跌3.35美元，至65.73美元/桶，跌幅4.8%；纽约商品交易所WTI原油期货价格较一个月前下跌1.48美元，至62.18美元/桶，跌幅2.3%。截至目前，ICE布伦特原油价格较上年同期上涨11.77美元，至67.48美元/桶，NYMEX WTI原油价格上涨9.93美元，至62.96美元/桶。截至本月底，俄克拉荷马州库欣（Cushing）的库存出现短暂下降，布伦特WTI原油价格价差大幅收窄，至3美元/桶左右。对冲基金将ICE Brentand NYMEX WTI的净多头头寸减至101万份。布伦特和迪拜的滞销有所缓解，而wt的滞销有所加强。除欧洲外，全球糖醋差距缩小。

世界经济

2017年和2018年的全球GDP增长预测仍为3.8%。在2017年增长2.3%之后，美国2018年的增长预计将保持在2.7%不变。预计2018年欧元区经济增长率将保持在2.2%，2017年增长率为2.5%。在2017年实际增长1.7%之后，日本的2018年增长预测下调至1.5%。印度2018年的GDP增长预测保持在7.2%不变，高于2017年6.4%的实际增长。在2017年增长6.9%后，预计2018年中国GDP增长将保持在6.5%。

世界石油需求

2017年，为反映最新数据，世界石油需求增长比2月份的评估值高23 tb/d。目前，2017年世界石油需求总量增长预计为162万桶/日，平均为9704万桶/日。目前，预测2018年石油需求增长约为160万桶/日，略高于2月份的计划，石油需求总量为9863万桶/日。经合组织地区的石油需求增长在2008年第一季度被调高，目前显示2018年增长为32万桶/日。在非经合组织地区，2008年第一季度的增长预测也增加了20 tb/d，现在显示2018年的增长为127 mb/d。

世界石油供应

2017年，非欧佩克石油供应量较2月份的评估略有增加0.01百万桶/日，主要原因是第四季度产量增长高于预期，同比增长0.87百万桶/日。2018年，非欧佩克石油供应量同比增长1.66百万桶/日，同比增长0.28百万桶/日，非欧佩克国家的总供应量为5953万桶/日。向上修正的主要原因是，经合组织（美洲和欧洲）、金融稳定联盟和中国在18年第一季度的产出比预期高出360吨/日。目前，预计欧佩克天然气产量在2018年将增长18万桶/日，上年同期为17万桶/日。根据第二来源，欧佩克原油产量在2018年2月下降了77 tb/d，平均为3219 mb/d。

产品市场和炼油业务

所有主要交易中心的产品市场上个月都显示出积极的结果，主要是受基本面改善的推动。在美国，尽管本月大部分时间都出现亏损，但由于受到汽油和柴油库存的强劲支撑，炼油厂利润率显示出季节性同比增长，在本月最后一周，由于炼油厂的维护，汽油和柴油库存分别下降了80万桶/日和60万桶/日。在欧洲，由于汽油需求增加和燃料油出口机会改善，产品市场走强。同样，除柴油市场外，亚洲产品市场全线上涨。支持来自更高的产品需求，符合季节性趋势，以及由于东北亚的寒冷天气，在强劲的航空燃料需求下，更高的取暖要求。

油轮市场

油轮市场现货运价继续下降，如前几个月所见。二月份脏油轮的平均即期运费进一步下降了6%。尽管天气和港口出现延误，但由于管理需求有限和长吨位清单阻止了几个地区的运价上涨，所有报告的脏舱运价都有所下降。2月份清洁油轮市场基本平静，现货运价普遍疲软，原因是尽管天气寒冷，偶尔会出现延误，但假期和活动不足。

股票变动

1月份的初步数据显示，经合组织商业库存总量增加1370万股，达到286500万股，比最近五年的平均水平高出5000万股。原油库存显示有7400万桶的盈余，而产品库存则出现2400万桶的季节性赤字。从远期覆盖天数来看，经合组织商业股1月份小幅下跌，至60天，比过去5年的平均水平低0.6天。

供需平衡

2017年，预计欧佩克原油需求将保持不变，达到3290万桶/日，比2016年的水平高出60万桶/日。2018年，预计欧佩克原油需求为3260万桶/日，较上一次评估下降20万桶/日，较上年同期下降20万桶/日

Crude Oil Price Movements 

In February, the ORB dropped 5% m-o-m, lower for the first time in six months, to average $63.48/b, butremains above levels seen in more than two years. Year-to-date, the ORB was 23.4%, or $12.37, higherthan seen in the same period a year earlier, at $65.25/b. Similarly, Dated Brent dropped by $3.97 m-o-m toaverage $65.16/b and spot WTI declined by $1.55 to average $62.15/b. Oil futures also ended lower, but byvarying amounts. The sell-off in crude oil futures started early in the month with oil prices pulled lower, asmajor US stock markets declined sharply and the dollar firmed. The ICE Brent was $3.35, or 4.8%, lower, at$65.73/b, while NYMEX WTI slipped $1.48, or 2.3%, to $62.18/b compared to a month earlier. Year-to-date,ICE Brent was $11.77 higher than the same period a year earlier at $67.48/b, while NYMEX WTI rose by$9.93 to $62.96/b. The Brent-WTI spread narrowed significantly to around $3/b by the end of the month, onsteep declines in inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma. Hedge funds reduced net long positions in ICE Brentand NYMEX WTI to 1.01 million contracts. Brent and Dubai backwardation eased, while that of WTIstrengthened. The sweet-sour differentials narrowed globally, except in Europe. 

World Economy 

The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for both 2017 and 2018. US growth is expected to standunchanged at 2.7% in 2018, after growth of 2.3% in 2017. Growth in the Euro-zone is expected to remain at2.2% in 2018, following growth of 2.5% in 2017. Japan’s 2018 growth forecast is revised down to 1.5%, afteractual growth of 1.7% in 2017. India’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 7.2% in 2018, higher thanactual growth for 2017 at 6.4%. China’s GDP growth is projected to remain at 6.5% in 2018, after reportedgrowth of 6.9% in 2017. 

World Oil Demand 

In 2017, world oil demand growth is revised higher by 23 tb/d from February’s assessment to reflect thelatest data. Total world oil demand growth for 2017 is now pegged at 1.62 mb/d, averaging 97.04 mb/d. For2018, oil demand growth is now forecasted at around 1.60 mb/d, marginally higher than February’sprojections, with total oil demand at 98.63 mb/d. Oil demand growth in the OECD region was revised higherin 1Q18, now showing growth of 0.32 mb/d for 2018. In the non-OECD region, growth projections were alsoadjusted higher by 20 tb/d in 1Q18, now showing growth of 1.27 mb/d in 2018. 

World Oil Supply 

For 2017, non-OPEC supply is revised up slightly by 0.01 mb/d from February’s assessment, mainly due tohigher-than-expected output growth in 4Q17, representing growth of 0.87 mb/d y-o-y. For 2018,non-OPEC supply is revised up by 0.28 mb/d, representing y-o-y growth of 1.66 mb/d, with totalnon-OPEC supply reading 59.53 mb/d. The upward revision is mainly due to higher-than-expected output in1Q18 by 360 tb/d in OECD (Americas and Europe), FSU and China. OPEC NGLs are now expected to growby 0.18 mb/d in 2018, following 0.17 mb/d a year earlier. According to secondary sources, OPEC crudeproduction decreased by 77 tb/d in February 2018, averaging 32.19 mb/d. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Product markets in all main trading hubs showed positive results last month, mainly driven by improvedfundamentals. In the US, and despite losses seen through most of the month, refinery margins showedoutstanding seasonal y-o-y growth on strong support from gasoline and diesel stocks, which fell by 0.8 mb/dand 0.6 mb/d, respectively, in the last week of the month, due to refinery maintenance. In Europe, productmarkets strengthened, supported by higher gasoline demand and improved fuel oil export opportunities.Similarly, product markets in Asia recorded gains all across the barrel, except in the diesel complex. Supportcame from higher product demand, in line with seasonal trends, and higher heating requirements due tocolder weather in northeast Asia, amid firm jet fuel demand. 

Tanker Market 

Tanker market spot freight rates continued to drop as seen in the previous months. Average dirty tanker spotfreight rates declined further by 6% in February. Lower rates were seen in all reported dirty classes as limitedtonnage demand and lengthy tonnage lists prevented rates from rising in several regions, despite someweather and ports delays. The clean tanker market was mostly quiet in February and spot freight rates weregenerally weak, due to holidays and insufficient activity despite cold weather and occasional delays.

Stock Movements 

Preliminary data for January showed that total OECD commercial stocks rose by 13.7 mb m-o-m to standat 2,865 mb, which is 50 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude stocks indicated a surplus of 74 mb,while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 24 mb to the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover,OECD commercial stocks fell slightly in January to stand at 60 days, which is 0.6 days lower than the lastfive-year average. 

Balance of Supply and Demand 

In 2017, demand for OPEC crude is estimated to remain unchanged to stand at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d higherthan the 2016 level. In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.6 mb/d, down by 0.2 mb/d from theprevious assessment and 0.2 m/d lower than a year earlier