2008年5月石油市场月报(2008)MOMR May 2008(2008)

今年4月，欧佩克的参考价格篮子创下历史新高，较上月上涨6.13美元或近7%，至105.20美元/桶。中东地缘政治发展和西非和欧洲供应中断导致价格上涨。美元走软和经济不确定性加剧了市场波动，同时需求预测大幅下调，中国需求健康迹象抵消了下调的影响。5月份，对地缘政治趋势和罢工相关干扰的看涨势头持续。今年5月，该篮子价格升至略低于120美元/桶，随后在5月14日跌至118.78美元/桶。2008年世界经济增长率预计为3.9%，与上个月持平，有迹象表明信贷危机可能正在缓解。日本的预测略有上升，而欧元区的预测略有下降。美国的预测不变，为1.1%。从狭义的技术意义上讲，美国还没有陷入衰退——第一季度美国国内生产总值（GDP）的预增数据仍然显示出正增长，尽管年增长率仅为0.6%，主要原因是出口持续走强和库存增加。美国4月份的就业人数连续第四个月下降，但2万个就业岗位的减少比2008年第一季度平均每月8万个岗位的减少幅度要小得多。PMI服务业指数也意外上扬，三个月来首次升至50以上。总体而言，好于预期的数据和美联储晕船周期即将结束的迹象，帮助美元从对欧元和日元的低点回升。通胀继续困扰着中国、印度和其他新兴市场，可能会抑制未来几个月的增长。4月份，世界石油需求增长主要是在非经合组织地区，正如预期的那样。经合组织的石油需求非常疲软，尽管整个欧洲冬季的产品需求有所改善。美国石油消费大幅下降，原因是经济增长缓慢，冬季天气温暖。预计第二季度石油需求增长将经历典型的季节性低消费。此外，由于预计美国的汽油需求将减弱，今年的夏季驾车季节不太可能显示出正常的年增长率。2008年世界石油需求年增长率预计为120万桶/日，平均为8695万桶/日，较上月略有下降。预计非经合组织国家（主要是中国、中东、印度和拉丁美洲）将占需求增长的全部。预计美国北部的需求将持平，而其他经合组织地区的石油需求预计将下降，原因是第二季度运输燃料需求减弱。预计2008年非欧佩克国家的供应量平均增长70万桶/日，较上月略有下降。对墨西哥、挪威、英国、丹麦、澳大利亚、新西兰、巴西和俄国的向下修正，部分被印度、叙利亚和乍得的上调所抵消。2007年和2008年，欧佩克天然气和非常规石油的增长分别为34万桶/日和54万桶/日。今年4月，欧佩克原油平均日产量3170万桶，较上月减少393吨，因尼日利亚和伊拉克的原油生产出现中断。美国的汽油库存以及欧洲和亚洲紧张的馏出油市场支撑了产品市场，提升了全球炼油利润率。当前成品油市场的情绪可能会进一步加剧，随着驾驶季节的临近，为原油价格提供支撑。不过，由于汽油石（尤其是美国）相对舒适，预计未来几个月炼油利润率不会大幅提升。同时，由于下游的技术限制阻碍了炼油厂模式向有利于中间馏分油生产的任何重大转变，目前桶体中间部件的紧绷状况可能会持续下去，在未来几个月内支撑市场。4月份，欧佩克的现货供应量增加了0.58百万桶/日，平均为1350百万桶/日。受吨位需求改善的影响，中东东部的现货供应量和全球供应量都有所增加，而中东西部的现货供应量则有所下降。4月份，欧佩克航线保持稳定，只有小幅下降，尽管月底租船活动增加，推高了即期运价，表明未来一个月全球航线可能增加。由于吨位需求不断增长，4月份所有报告航线的原油油轮市场都有所增长。超大型油轮现货运价较上月平均上涨7%，创下1月份以来的最高水平。美国商业石油总库存4月份进一步增加260万桶，至9.73亿桶，略高于5年平均水平。原油库存连续第四个月上涨，增加740万桶，达到3.25亿桶，为去年7月以来的最高水平，而成品油库存则连续第三个月下降。尽管有1360万桶的汽油库存，但仍处于季节性区间的上端。在欧盟16国（15欧元加上挪威），石油库存总量下降200万桶，至11.11亿桶，与年初以来的五年平均水平保持一致。今年3月，日本商业库存从2月份的大幅下降中恢复，自去年10月以来首次上升。尽管经济复苏，库存仍然低于季节平均水平，特别是原油库存，创下了历史新低。4月份的初步数据显示，股市与上月相比几乎没有变化。据估计，2007年欧佩克原油需求量平均为3200万桶/日，比上年增加280吨/日；2008年欧佩克原油需求量平均为3180万桶/日，比上年减少120吨/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket reached a record high in April, increasing $6.13 or almost 7% over the previous month toaverage $105.20/b. Prices rose on geopolitical developments in the Middle East and supply disruptions in West Africaand Europe. The weakening US dollar and economic uncertainty added to market volatility, along with sharp downwardrevisions to demand forecasts which were offset by signs of healthy demand in China. The bullish momentum continuedin May on geopolitical trends and strike-related disruptions. In May, the Basket rose to just under $120/b beforedeclining to stand at $118.78/b on 14 May. World economic growth is forecast at 3.9% in 2008, unchanged from the previous month amid signs that the credit crisismay be easing. Forecasts for Japan were revised slightly up while those for the Euro-zone slightly down. The forecastfor the US is unchanged at 1.1%. In the narrow technical sense, the US is not yet in recession — advance figures for USGDP in the first quarter still indicate positive growth, albeit at a meager 0.6% yearly rate, mainly on continued strengthin exports and a rise in inventories. US payrolls in April fell for the fourth month, but the loss of 20,000 jobs was muchsmaller than the average of 80,000/month in the first quarter of 2008. The PMI services index also surprised on theupside, rising above 50 for the first time in three months. Overall, the better-than-expected data and signs that the Fed’seasing cycle was at an end, helped lift the dollar from its lows versus the euro and yen. Inflation continued to troubleChina, India and other emerging markets and could dampen growth in the months ahead. World oil demand in April grew mostly in the non-OECD regions as was expected. OECD oil demand was very weak,although winter product demand improved across Europe. US oil consumption declined sharply, due to both the slowingeconomy and warm winter weather. Oil demand growth is expected to experience the typical seasonal low consumptionin the second quarter. Moreover, this year’s summer driving season is not likely to show its normal annual growth due tothe anticipated weaker gasoline demand in the USA. World oil demand growth in 2008 is forecast at 1.2 mb/d y-o-y toaverage 86.95 mb/d, representing a slight downward revision from the previous month. Non-OECD countries — mainlyChina, the Middle East, India and Latin America — are expected to account for all of the demand growth. Demand inNorth America is forecast to be flat while oil demand in other OECD regions are expected to decline due to weakeningtransport fuel demand in the second quarter. Non-OPEC supply growth in 2008 is expected to average 0.7 mb/d, representing a slight downward revision from theprevious month. Downward revisions made to Mexico, Norway, UK, Denmark, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil andRussia were partially offset by upward adjustments to India, Syria and Chad. Growth in OPEC NGLs and nonconventionaloils for 2007 and 2008 now stand at 0.34 mb/d and 0.54 mb/d respectively. In April, OPEC crude oilproduction averaged 31.70 mb/d, a decline of 393 tb/d from the previous month as production in Nigeria and Iraqwitnessed disruptions. Gasoline stock-draws in the US along with the tight distillate markets in Europe and Asia supported the product market,lifting refining margins across the globe. The current sentiment of the product market may be compounded further,providing support for crude prices as the driving season approaches. However, due to relatively comfortable gasolinestocks, particularly in the US, refining margins are not expected to boost sharply over the next months. Meanwhile, withtechnical restrictions in the downstream hindering any significant switch in the refinery mode to favour middle distillateproduction, the current tightness in middle of the barrel components might persist, supporting the market over thecoming months. OPEC spot fixtures increased 0.58 mb/d to average 13.5 mb/d in April. Middle East spot fixtures to the East increased aswell as global fixtures on the back of improving tonnage demand, while Middle East to West fixtures declined. OPECsailings remained steady in April with only a minor decline, although increased chartering activities at the end of themonth, which pushed up spot freight rates, point to a possible rise in global sailings in the coming month. As a result ofthe growing tonnage demand, the tanker market for crude oil increased in April on all reported routes. VLCC spotfreight rates rose 7% on average from the previous month, marking the highest level since January. US total commercial oil stocks rose a further 2.6 mb in April to 973 mb to remain slightly above the five-year average.Crude oil stocks rose for the fourth consecutive month, adding 7.4 mb to hit 325 mb, their highest level since last July,while product stocks fell for the third consecutive month. Despite a draw of 13.6 mb, gasoline stocks remained at theupper end of their seasonal range. In EU-16 (Eur-15 plus Norway), total oil stocks fell 2 mb to stand at 1,111 mb inApril, remaining in line with the five-year average since the beginning of the year. In March, Japan’s commercial stocksrecovered from a huge decline of February, rising for the first time since last October. Despite this recovery, stocksremained below the seasonal average, particularly crude oil inventories, which hit a new record low. Preliminary datafor April indicate almost no change in stocks from the previous month. The demand for OPEC crude in 2007 is estimated to average 32.0 mb/d, an increase of 280 tb/d over the previous year.In 2008, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 31.8 mb/d, or 120 tb/d lower than in the previous year.