2005年3月石油市场月报(2005)MOMR March 2005(2005)

自2004年夏天以来，日本和欧洲似乎首次开始参与世界经济的增长。日本的前景尤其令人鼓舞，因为国内和企业的需求似乎已经在2005年取得了良好的开端。欧洲的迹象较为温和，但德国的早期数据至少表明，改善投资需求和消费支出应能在第一季度产生有意义的GDP增长。

然而，世界经济的主要增长引擎仍然是美国和中国。美国2月份消费和投资支出继续强劲增长，第一季度可能增长约4%。中国的数据证实，1月和2月零售额增速略有放缓，但工业生产增速加快，同比增长至16.9%。

2005年世界经济增长的可持续性存在风险。中国当局可能采取直接行动，以防止经济过热，美国经济可能面临通胀上升和利率上升。3月份油价进一步上涨，消费者和企业消化此类上涨的能力是进一步的不确定性。今年3月，美国的年度贸易逆差扩大至580亿美元，美元再次面临压力。

尽管2005年开局合理，但考虑到今年晚些时候的不确定性，日本和欧元区的经济增长预测略有下调。2005年，日本和欧元区的GDP预计将增长1.4%，低于此前预测的1.6%。美国对2005年经济增长的预测保持在3.4%不变，而中国对2005年经济增长率的预测则略有上升，达到8.2%。根据这些调整，2005年世界经济的预期增长率下降了0.1%至4.1%。

欧佩克2月份的参考价格平均为41.68美元/桶，比上个月上涨1.44美元或3.5%。本月头两周，美国原油库存增加，预计北半球天气将转暖，第二周该篮子指数跌至平均40.12美元/桶。然而，北部晚些时候的寒流触发了aturnaround，该篮子在第四周经历了上涨，平均价格达到43.95美元/桶。3月份，该篮子在第一周大幅飙升至平均46.59美元/桶，随后在第二周继续上涨，在3月16日创下50.78美元/桶的新高。

大西洋两岸的冰冻天气推高了中间馏分油产品的现货和期货价格，巩固了2005年需求增加预期引发的原油价格新趋势。同样，亚洲地区对轻量化产品的强劲需求，以及中国为补充产品库存而购买的预期复苏，都推高了产品价格和炼油厂利润率。一旦北半球的冰冻天气结束，考虑到美国汽油库存的绝对和相对水平，预计炼油厂利润将失去近期的大幅上涨，并对原油市场造成一定压力。不过，由于炼油厂产能收紧，一旦发生严重的炼油厂停产，产品市场的人气可能迅速改变。

2月份，欧佩克地区现货租船量增加了30万桶/日，达到1580万桶/日。这一增长的主要驱动力与欧佩克产量的增长一致，是中东国家。来自欧佩克国家的船运量也增加了30万桶/日，达到246万桶/日。超大型油轮行业的原油运价从1月份的低点大幅飙升，特别是在中东航线上，由于中国租船人在农历新年庆典结束后的回归，原油运价翻了一番多。其他部门表现出混合模式，特别是阿芙拉型油轮，由于即将进行的季节性炼油维护，该油轮在地中海地区受到严重影响。由于寒冷天气持续的健康活动，地中海地区所有航线的产品运价均下降，但地中海地区除外。

由于2004年的全部初步数据首次可用，尽管仍需作一些小的调整，但世界石油总需求增长率略有上调，从0.07百万桶/日上调至2.62百万桶/日。这使得2004年世界石油需求估计为82.12百万桶/日。尽管经济增长率略有下调至4.1%，经合组织几个国家和中国的强劲消费再次导致了全球石油需求增长的向上调整。据估计，2005年世界石油总需求增长率为186万桶/日，同比增长2.26%，导致本年度全球平均需求为8398万桶/日。

根据第二来源，欧佩克2月份的原油产量估计为2956万桶/日，比1月份的修订数字增加了24万桶/日。非欧佩克国家2004年的石油供应量估计为4974万桶/日，比2003年的4863万桶/日高出11万桶/日。2005年非欧佩克石油供应预计将达到5080万桶/日，比2004年的估计增加106万桶/日。2004年FSU的净出口量估计为729万桶/日，预计2005年将增至782万桶/日。

1月28日至2月25日期间，美国商业石油库存呈季节性下降趋势，下降670万桶，或0.24万桶/日，至951万桶。尽管3月11日的最新每周数据显示了类似的趋势，但仍比去年高出402万桶。16欧元（欧盟加挪威）原油和汽油库存的石油库存已登记建造，而其他主要产品则经历了平仓。16欧元石油库存为107710万欧元，较一个月前的水平下降540万欧元或0.19万欧元/日。日本商业石油库存总量连续第二个月出现季节性下降，下降510万桶或0.16万桶/日，达到18480万桶。

For the first time since the summer of 2004, Japan and Europe appear to have begun to share in the growth of the worldeconomy. The outlook for Japan is particularly encouraging as both domestic and corporate demand look to have made agood start to 2005. The indications for Europe are more modest but early data for Germany, at least, suggest that improvinginvestment demand and consumer spending should produce meaningful GDP growth in the first quarter.

  Nevertheless the main growth engines of the world economy remain the USA and China. US consumer and investmentspending continued to grow strongly in February and the first quarter may see growth of about 4%. Data for China confirmsa slight slowdown in the growth rates for retail sales in January and February but industrial production growth accelerated,rising to 16.9% year-on-year. 

There are risks on the sustainability of world economic growth in 2005. Chinese authorities may take direct action toprevent overheating and the US economy may face rising inflation and higher interest rates. Oil prices rose further in Marchand the capacity of consumers and companies to absorb such increases is a further uncertainty. The US trade deficit inJanuary widened to $58 bn and the dollar came under renewed pressure in March. 

Despite the reasonable start to 2005, growth forecasts for Japan and the Euro-zone have been reduced slightly to takeaccount of uncertainties later in the year. GDP is expected to grow by 1.4% in Japan and the Euro-zone in 2005, down fromthe earlier forecast of 1.6% for both. The US growth forecast for 2005 is unchanged at 3.4%, while the 2005 growth rateforecast for China has been increased slightly to 8.2%. Reflecting these adjustments, the forecast growth rate for the worldeconomy in 2005 has fallen by 0.1% to 4.1%. 

The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $41.68/b in February, an increase of $1.44 or 3.5% over the pervious month. For thefirst two weeks of the month, the Basket dropped to average $40.12/b in the second week, as US crude oil stocks saw buildsand warmer weather was forecast for the Northern Hemisphere. However, a late cold snap in the north triggered aturnaround as the Basket experienced gains in the fourth week to average $43.95/b. In March, the Basket saw a hefty jumpto average $46.59/b in the first week before continuing to rise further in the second to stand at a new record high of$50.78/b on 16 March. 

Icy weather on both sides of the Atlantic lifted physical and futures prices of middle distillate products and consolidated thenew trend in crude prices triggered by the expectation of higher demand in 2005. Similarly, strong regional demand forlight products and the expectation of a revival in Chinese buying to replenish product stocks have boosted product pricesand refinery margins in Asia. Once the wave of freezing temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere comes to an end andgiven the comfortable level of US gasoline stocks in both absolute and relative terms, it is expected that refinery marginswill lose their recent sharp gains and put some pressure on the crude market. However, due to tightening refinery capacity,sentiment in the product market could change rapidly in the event of a serious refinery outage.

  OPEC area spot chartering rose by 0.3 mb/d to 15.8 mb/d in February. The main driver behind this growth, in line with theincrease in OPEC’s output, was Middle Eastern countries. Sailings from OPEC countries also increased by 0.3 mb/d to24.6 mb/d. Crude oil freight rates in the VLCC sector surged sharply from the lows seen in January, especially on theMiddle East/East route where they more than doubled, driven by the return of Chinese charterers following the end of theLunar New Year celebration. Other sectors showed mixed patterns, especially the Aframax which was heavily affected inthe Mediterranean region due to the upcoming seasonal refining maintenance. Product freight rates declined on all routesexcept in the Mediterranean region as a result of healthy activity sustained by the cold weather. 

With full preliminary data for 2004 available for the first time — although still subject to minor adjustments — total worldoil demand growth for the year has been slightly revised upwards by 0.07 mb/d to 2.62 mb/d. This leaves estimated worldoil demand for 2004 at 82.12 mb/d. Although economic growth has been revised slightly down to 4.1%, solid consumptionin several OECD countries and China has led once again to upward adjustment in global oil demand growth. Total worldoil demand growth for 2005 is now estimated at 1.86 mb/d which translates into y-o-y growth of 2.26 % resulting inaverage global demand of 83.98 mb/d for the current year. 

OPEC crude oil production in February, based on secondary sources, is estimated at 29.56 mb/d, an increase of 0.24 mb/dfrom the revised January figure. Non-OPEC oil supply for 2004 is estimated at 49.74 mb/d, which is 1.11 mb/d over the48.63 mb/d estimated 2003 figure. Non-OPEC supply in 2005 is expected to reach 50.80 mb/d, an increase of 1.06 mb/dover the 2004 estimate. Net FSU exports for 2004 are estimated at 7.29 mb/d and are expected to rise to 7.82 mb/d in 2005. 

US commercial oil stocks showed a seasonal draw pattern decreasing by 6.7 mb or 0.24 mb/d to 951 mb during the period28 January-25 February. Although the latest weekly data of March 11 indicates similar trend, it is still 40.2 mb above lastyear’s level. Oil stocks in Eur-16 (EU plus Norway) for crude oil and gasoline inventories registered builds while othermain products experienced draws. Eur-16 oil stocks stood at 1,077.1 mb, a decline of 5.4 mb or 0.19 mb/d from the levelobserved a month ago. Total commercial oil stocks in Japan continued to see seasonal draws for the second consecutivemonth, losing 5.1 mb or 0.16 mb/d to stand at 184.8 mb.