2008年7月石油市场月报(2008)MOMR July 2008(2008)

尽管欧佩克产量增加，出口增加，但6月份欧佩克参考价格达到创纪录的128.34美元/桶，同比增长8.94美元/桶或7.5%。价格上涨主要是由于地缘政治紧张局势升级，金融市场投机加剧了这种紧张局势。由于墨西哥湾的风暴威胁，持续的美国美元波动和供应担忧也推高了价格。在7月的第一周，中东地区地缘政治紧张局势的升级又增加了10.13美元/桶的价格，7月14日的平均价格为139.81美元/桶。

2009年世界经济预测为3.9%，略低于2008年4.0%的修正预测。经合组织地区预计今年将增长1.8%对1.9%，而发展中国家的增长可能从5.9%下降到5.6%，主要原因是拉丁美洲增长放缓。预计中国经济将实现9.2%的增长，比2008年下降0.7%，而印度的增长率几乎保持在7.5%不变。继第一季度的最终数据稍高，第二季度的预期表现有所好转之后，2008年美国经济增长率修正为1.5%，增幅为0.3个百分点。然而，随着劳动力市场的疲软、消费者信心的下降以及金融市场系统性风险的重现，今年下半年的前景已经恶化。第二季度，即使在德国，欧元区经济活动的减速已经变得明显，但欧洲央行并没有阻止将利率提高到4.25%。在日本，对经济衰退的担忧正在上升，预计第二季度的经济增长将为负。在许多正在合并的经济体中，为控制不断上升的通货膨胀而采取的更为紧缩的货币政策可能会抑制今年剩余时间乃至2009年的经济增长。

据预测，2009年世界石油需求将增长90万桶/日，比2008年的预计增长率下降了10万桶/日。非经合组织的石油需求预计为120万桶/日，占明年需求增长的全部，经合组织的经济放缓和高油价一直在影响石油需求，并将在明年继续影响石油需求。预计2009年交通运输将成为关键增长部门。今年，世界石油需求量修正了10万桶/日，达到86.81万桶/日，增长了10万桶/日。由于经济活动放缓和油价上涨，第二季度经合组织的石油产品消费量预计将进一步下降，而油价自最初预测以来已经翻了一番。经合组织（OECD）特别是美国的运输燃料需求出现了强劲下降。

2009年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应预计将增长90万桶/日，达到5100万桶/日。巴西、美国、俄罗斯、阿塞拜疆、哈萨克斯坦、加拿大和澳大利亚预计将是明年增长的主要贡献者。墨西哥、英国和诺威预计将经历最大跌幅。预计2009年欧佩克天然气和非常规石油产量将达到550万桶/日，比今年大幅增长约70万桶/日。2008，非欧佩克供应量预计将增加0.6 Mb/d，这意味着从上次评估中大约112吨T/D的向下修正，主要是由于巴西、俄罗斯和墨西哥的产量较低。6月份，欧佩克原油平均日产量为3230万桶，略高于上月。

尤其是在美国，汽油需求的放缓，加上蒸馏油市场的宽松和昂贵的原油价格，给全球炼油经济带来了压力。这些趋势的持续可能会鼓励炼油厂减产或比平时更早开始季节性维修，这将削减原油需求。这可能导致未来几个月原油库存增加，对今年下半年的原油价格构成压力。如果未来几个月欧佩克或非欧佩克产油国出现供应中断，这种看法可能会改变。在不久的将来，由于美国墨西哥湾沿岸可能出现的活跃飓风季节，产品市场的主要不确定因素是炼油厂可能停工。

欧佩克6月份的现货供应量比上个月增加了10%，达到平均1450万桶/日，原因是炼油厂从维修中恢复，中东地区的原油进入市场。据估计，石油输出国组织（OPEC）的出海量已增至平均233万桶/日。随着进口的增加，上个月抵达美国的人数有所增加。超大型油轮市场保持稳定，因为超大型油轮的产量止跌。6月份清洁油轮运价强劲，所有报告航线的运价都有所上升。

截至6月底，美国商业石油总库存增长了660万桶，达到97500万桶。成品油库存保持稳定，特别是运输燃料，而原油库存进一步下降900万桶。今年上半年，美国商业股仅增长了1000万日元，而今年这个时候，美国商业股的典型规模为2800万英镑。建造速度放缓的主要原因是原油进口下降，这是由于非欧佩克国家的航行量下降，尽管同期欧佩克的产量强劲增长。相比之下，欧盟15国加上挪威的石油库存总量下降了860万桶，但仍处于五年期的上限。5月份，日本商业石油库存继续上升，超过900万桶，自去年10月以来首次突破17800万桶。这座建筑是由于原油价格上涨了800万英镑。

据估计，2008年欧佩克原油需求量平均为3200万桶/日，比上一年下降了90吨/日。2009年，对欧佩克原油的需求预计平均为3120万桶/日，比上一年减少710吨/日。

Despite increased OPEC production and higher exports, the OPEC Reference Basket reached a record high of $128.34/bin June, representing an increase of $8.94/b or 7.5%. The jump in prices was mainly due to an escalation in geopoliticaltensions which has been exacerbated by financial market speculation. The continued US dollar fluctuations and supplyconcerns due to a storm threat in the Gulf of Mexico have also boosted prices. In the first week of July, the escalation ofgeopolitical tensions in the Mideast added another $10.13/b. The Basket averaged $139.81/b on 14 July. 

World economy in 2009 is forecast at 3.9%, slightly lower than the revised 4.0% estimate for 2008. The OECD region isforecast to grow at 1.8% versus 1.9% this year, while developing countries growth may fall to 5.6% from 5.9%, mainlydue to slower Latin American growth. China is seen to achieve 9.2% growth, a drop of 0.7 % below 2008, while India’sgrowth is almost unchanged at 7.5%. Following slightly higher final figures for the first quarter and signs of a betterthan-expectedperformance in the second, US growth in 2008 was revised up by 0.3 points to 1.5%. However, theoutlook for the second half of this year has worsened amidst weakening labour markets, falling consumer confidenceand remerging systemic risks in the financial markets. Decelerating economic activity was already becoming noticeablein the Euro-zone in the second quarter, even in Germany, but the ECB was not deterred from raising interest rates to4.25%. In Japan, fears of recession are rising and growth in the second quarter is expected to be negative. In manyemerging economies, tighter monetary policies introduced to reign in rising inflation may dampen growth for the rest ofthe year and into 2009. 

World oil demand in 2009 is forecast to grow by 0.9 mb/d, which represents a decline of 0.1 mb/d from estimatedgrowth in 2008. Oil demand in the non-OECD is expected at 1.2 mb/d, accounting for all of next year’s demand growth.The economic slowdown and high pump prices in OECD have been impacting oil demand and will continue to do sonext year. Transport is expected to be the key growth sector in 2009. For this year, world oil demand has been reviseddown by 0.1 mb/d to stand at 86.81 mb/d, representing growth of 1.0 mb/d. Consumption of petroleum productsexperienced further declines in OECD in the second quarter due to slower economic activity and higher oil prices, whichhave doubled since the initial forecast. Transport fuel demand in the OECD and particularly the US has showed a strongdecline. 

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2009 is expected to grow by 0.9 mb/d to reach 51.0 mb/d. Brazil, USA, Russia, Azerbaijan,Kazakhstan, Canada, and Australia are expected to be the main contributors to next year’s growth. Mexico, UK, andNorway are expected to experience the largest declines. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are expected to reach5.5 mb/d in 2009, indicating a significant increase of around 0.7 mb/d over the current year. In 2008, non-OPEC supplyis expected to increase by 0.6 mb/d, which represents a downward revision of around 112 tb/d from the last assessment,primarily due to lower output from Brazil, Russia, and Mexico. In June, OPEC crude output averaged 32.3 mb/d,slightly higher than in the previous month.

  Slowing demand for gasoline particularly in the US, combined with an easing in the distillate markets and costly crudehave exerted pressure on refining economics across the world. The continuation of these trends may encourage refinersto cut throughputs or begin seasonal maintenance earlier than usual, which would trim crude demand. This could lead tofurther crude stock-builds in the coming months, putting pressure on crude prices in the latter part of the year. Theseperceptions may change if supply disruptions occur either in OPEC or non-OPEC producers over the next months. Themain wild card for the product market in the near future would be possible refinery outages due to a potential activehurricane season in the US Gulf Coast. 

OPEC spot fixtures increased by 10% in June from the previous month to average 14.5 mb/d as refineries returned frommaintenance and extra Middle East barrels came onto the market. OPEC sailings are estimated to have increased toaverage 23.33 mb/d. Arrivals in the US rose last month as imports increased. The VLCC market remained steady as theextra barrels halted the decline. Clean tanker freight rates were robust in June with rates increasing on all reportedroutes. 

US total commercial oil stocks rose 6.6 mb to stand at 975 mb at end-June. Product stocks remained comfortable,particularly transport fuels, while crude oil inventories fell a further 9 mb. US commercial stocks increased by only10 mb in the first half of this year, compared to a typical build of 28 mb during this time of year. The slower build wasprimarily due to the decline in crude imports, resulting from lower non-OPEC sailings despite a strong increase inOPEC production over the same period. In contrast, EU-15 plus Norway total oil inventories fell 8.6 mb but stayedwithin the upper end of the five-year range. Japan’s commercial oil stocks continued their upward trend in May, addingover 9 mb to move above 178 mb for the first time since last October. The build was attributed to crude oil whichjumped 8 mb.

  The demand for OPEC crude in 2008 is estimated to average 32.0 mb/d, a decline of 90 tb/d over the previous year. In2009, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 31.2 mb/d or 710 tb/d lower than in the previous year.