2009年6月石油市场月报(2009)MOMR June 2009(2009)

今年5月，欧佩克（OPEC）一篮子参考原油价格上涨近14%，至平均56.98美元/桶，上涨6.78美元/桶，创下7个月来最高月度平均水平。市场的动力是经济实体的改善，为石油需求的复苏带来了希望。美国炼油厂的问题随着驾驶季节的开始而出现，同时隐含的每周需求达到了两年来的最高点。美元跌至五个月低点，股市持续反弹，也对市场产生影响。由于投资机构预测，随着美元走软，价格上涨将刺激资金流入能源期货，6月份该篮子继续走高。6月10日，该篮子达到70.87美元/桶。

2009年世界经济增长率小幅上调0.1%，下降1.3%。这种微小的变化主要是由于中国和印度的上调。最近，这些经济体的发展情况一直在改善，这为全年向上调整提供了理由。中国对2009年经济增长的预测从6.5%上升到7.0%，而印度则从5.0%上升到5.7%。经合组织成员国的预测仍保持在-3.8%不变，美国GDP预计下降2.8%，欧元区下降4.2%，日本经济仍然非常疲弱，预计收缩6.4%。虽然亚洲发展中国家看到了一些积极的势头，但经合组织成员国采取的措施是否能够产生可持续的复苏仍有待观察。

据估计，2008年世界石油需求下降了40万桶/日，此前的评估下调了10万桶/日。大部分修改发生在第四季度。2009年，世界石油需求预计将持续负增长160万桶/日，与上一份报告基本持平。从季度来看，今年上半年出现了下调，而预计年底需求将逐步复苏。经合组织预计将下降180万桶/日，而非经合组织则应看到约20万桶/日的小幅增长。

2008年非欧佩克石油供应量的估计数与上一次评估结果持平，下降了20万桶/日。2009年，非欧佩克石油供应量预计将比上一年增加20万桶/日，与上一次评估结果基本持平。预计2009年欧佩克天然气和非常规石油的平均日产量为470万桶，比上一年增加了40万桶。5月份，欧佩克原油产量平均为2827万桶/日，比上月增加135吨/日。

美国的汽油库存、较低的炼油厂运行和产品产量为产品市场提供了支持，提高了炼油利润率，特别是在大西洋盆地，由于馏分油市场持续看跌，加之市场预期汽油需求在驾驶季节将缺乏足够的动力，预计汽油市场近期的积极发展不会在未来几个月持续下去。欧佩克5月份的现货供应量较上月增长21%。来自欧佩克的航程几乎更高。5月份油轮市场反弹，阿芙拉型油轮表现良好。在全球经济危机和石油输出调整的影响下，超大型油轮行业继续遭受最大的损失。清洁现货运费平均上涨37%。在达到高位后，由于原油期货市场的期货结构收窄，海上储油量在接近月底时失去了动力。

5月份，美国商业石油库存继续保持上升趋势，增长1450万桶，达到1102万桶，主要是由于其他产品，原油和汽油库存分别下降1100万桶和900万桶。欧洲（欧盟15国加上挪威）石油库存在5月份增加了700万桶，达到五年平均水平的上限，这一盈余归因于石油产品。初步数据显示，日本商业石油库存4月份进一步下跌170万股，5月份上涨约700万股。

据估计，2008年欧佩克原油需求平均为3080万桶/日，较上年下降50万桶/日。2009年，对欧佩克原油的平均需求预计为2860万桶/日，较上年同期下降220万桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket surged almost 14% to average $56.98/b in May for a gain of $6.78/b,the highest monthly average in seven months. The market was driven by improving economicsentiment lending hope for a recovery in petroleum demand. Refinery problems in the US emergedwith the start of the driving season while implied weekly demand reached a two-year high. The fall ofthe US dollar to a five-month low and the continued rally in equities also impacted the market. TheBasket continued to move higher in June as investment institutions forecast higher prices inspiringinflows into energy futures as the dollar weakened. The Basket reached $70.87/b on 10 June. 

Growth for the world economy in 2009 has been revised up slightly by 0.1% to show a decline of1.3%. This minor change was due to upward revisions mainly in China and India. Developments inthese economies have been improving lately, justifying an upward revision for the full year. China’sgrowth forecast for 2009 was increased from 6.5% to 7.0% while India was revised up from 5.0% to5.7%. The forecast for the OECD countries remains unchanged at minus 3.8% with US GDPexpected to decline by 2.8%, the Euro-zone by 4.2%, and Japan remaining very weak with anexpected contraction of 6.4%. While developing Asia has seen some positive momentum, it remainsto be seen whether the measures taken by OECD countries are able to produce a sustainable recovery.

 World oil demand is estimated to have fallen by 0.4 mb/d in 2008 following a downwardrevision of 0.1 mb/d from the previous assessment. The bulk of the revision occurred in thefourth quarter. In 2009, world oil demand is expected to see continued negative growth of1.6 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous report. On a quarterly basis, the first half of theyear has seen a downward revision, while a gradual recovery in demand is expected by the end ofthe year. OECD is projected to fall by 1.8 mb/d, while non-OECD should see slight growth ofaround 0.2 mb/d. 

The estimate for non-OPEC oil supply in 2008 remains unchanged from the previous assessment,showing a decline of 0.2 mb/d. In 2009, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to increase by 0.2 mb/dfrom the previous year, broadly unchanged from the previous assessment. OPEC NGLs and nonconventionaloils are expected to average 4.7 mb/d in 2009, an increase of 0.4 mb/d over the previousyear. In May, OPEC crude oil production averaged 28.27 mb/d, an increase of 135 tb/d over theprevious month.

 A combination of the gasoline stock draws in the US, lower refinery runs and product outputs haveprovided support for product markets, lifting refining margins especially in the Atlantic Basin.However, due to persisting bearish momentum in the distillate market and expectations that gasolinedemand over the driving season will lack sufficient strength, the recent positive developments in thegasoline markets are not expected to persist over the coming months.OPEC spot fixtures rose in May by 21% compared to the previous month. Sailings from OPEC weremarginally higher. The tanker market rebounded in May with a good performance for the Aframaxsector. The VLCC sector continued to suffer the most from the global economic crisis and OPECoutput adjustments. Clean spot freight rates rose by 37% on average. After reaching a high level,storage at sea lost momentum towards the end of the month due to the narrowing of the contangostructure in the crude futures market. 

US commercial oil stocks continued their upward trend in May rising 14.5 mb to stand at 1,102 mb.The build was due mainly to other products, as crude and gasoline stocks fell by 11 mb and 9 mbrespectively. European (EU-15 plus Norway) oil stocks rose 7 mb in May to stand at the upper end ofthe five-year average, the surplus attributed to products. Japan’s commercial oil stocks fell a further1.7 mb in April before gaining around 7 mb in May, according to preliminary data. 

The demand for OPEC crude in 2008 is estimated to average 30.8 mb/d, a decline of 0.5 mb/d fromthe previous year. In 2009, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.6 mb/d, a drop of2.2 mb/d from a year earlier.