2011年3月石油市场月报(2011)MOMR March 2011(2011)

2月份，欧佩克的参考价格进一步上涨，自2008年9月以来首次在2月21日突破100美元/桶。由于对供应的担忧和投机活动的加剧，期货市场的强劲表现支撑了篮子的上涨。3月10日，该篮子价格为110.71美元/桶。

世界经济增长依然强劲，持续改善导致2011年增长预期提高，2011年增长预期调整为4.0%，增幅为0.1%。向上修正的主要原因是发展中国家的健康增长。中国的预测从8.8%上升到9.0%，印度从8.0%上升到8.1%。经济合作与发展组织（OECD）的预测再次上升至2.3%，美国为2.9%，欧元区和日本均为1.5%。通货膨胀开始对经合组织和发展中国家的决策者构成挑战，就经合组织而言，这可能导致利率上升，从而增加偿还主权债务的成本，而对发展中国家来说，针对经济过热的财政和货币工具的引入可能导致经济增长水平的下降幅度超过预期。

2010年世界石油需求增长估计为180万桶/日，2011年预计为140万桶/日，仅比上一份报告略有上升。今年第一季度的石油需求受到北半球冬季寒冷天气的提振。在非经合组织，预计第二季度石油需求将保持健康水平，实现与第一季度相似的增长。虽然比正常情况更冷的冬天使石油需求增加，但如果目前的价格水平持续一段时间，高油价可能会抑制未来几个月的消费。经合组织国家和非经合组织国家都会感受到这种影响。

非欧佩克国家的石油供应预计在2011年将增加50万桶/日，前一年的增长率为110万桶/日。2011年的数字比上一次评估上升了10万桶/日，主要是由于对历史数据的修订以及一些国家供应情况的变化。预计2011年欧佩克天然气和非常规石油的平均日产量为530万桶，比上年增加50万桶。二级来源显示，2月份，欧佩克原油总产量增加了110 tb/d，平均为300万桶/d。

中等馏分油市场的持续势头得到了工业部门的进一步支持，推动了全球范围内更强劲的柴油需求。这抵消了桶顶的看跌情绪，并保持了产品市场的健康。由于季节性维护导致炼油厂运行减少，强劲的中间馏分油需求可能在未来几个月继续支持炼油厂利润率。

油轮市场人气增强，大多数航线的即期运价都在上升。油价上涨受到远东假期和天气状况等因素的支撑，尽管燃料价格上涨，炼油厂也进行了一些维修，但仍有上涨。石油输出国组织的固定装置增加了960 tb/d，平均为1190万桶/d，几乎相当于全球固定装置的三分之二。据初步估计，欧佩克的出海量增加了208tb/d，达到2400万b/d。

美国2月份的商业库存减少了约2380万件，与上月的库存量相反。库存减少的原因是产品大幅下降，下降了2700万桶，而原油库存增加了320万桶。2月美国商业石油库存仍高于历史正常水平，为105110万桶。在日本，最新数据显示，1月份商业石油库存减少了240万桶，其中原油库存减少了260万桶，而产品库存则略有增加，为30万桶。2月份的初步迹象显示，日本商业石油库存进一步下降820万桶。

预计2010年欧佩克原油需求为2930万桶/日，与上一份报告持平，比上一年增加约30万桶/日。2011年，对欧佩克原油的需求预计将达到平均2980万桶/日，与之前的评估持平，比去年增加约50万桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket increased further in February, moving above $100/b on21 February for the first time since September 2008. The upward movement in the Basket wassupported by the strong performance of the futures market, which surged on supply fears andincreased speculative activities. The Basket stood at $110.71/b on 10 March. 

 World economic growth remains robust and continuing improvements have led to improvedgrowth expectations for 2011, which have been adjusted 0.1% higher to 4.0%. The main reasonfor the upward revision is healthy growth in the developing countries. China’s forecast has beenincreased from 8.8% to 9.0% and India from 8.0% to 8.1%. The forecast for the OECD remainsunchanged at 2.3%, with the US at 2.9% and both the Euro-zone and Japan at 1.5%. Inflation isbeginning to pose a challenge for policy makers in both the OECD and the developing countries.In the case of the OECD, this might lead to higher interest rates, which could increase the costof servicing sovereign debt, while for developing countries the introduction of fiscal andmonetary tools targeting overheating could result in a larger-than-expected decline in growthlevels. 

 World oil demand growth is estimated at 1.8 mb/d in 2010 and forecast at 1.4 mb/d in 2011,representing only minor upward adjustments from the previous report. Oil demand in the firstquarter of this year was boosted by cold winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere. In thenon-OECD, second quarter oil demand is expected to maintain its healthy level, achievingsimilar growth to that of the first quarter. While the colder-than-normal winter has strengthenedoil demand, high oil prices could dampen consumption over the coming months if current pricelevels persist for an extended period. This effect would be felt both in the OECD and non-OECDcountries. 

 Non-OPEC oil supply is projected to increase by 0.5 mb/d in 2011, following growth of 1.1 mb/din the previous year. The 2011 figure represents an upward adjustment of 0.1 mb/d from theprevious assessment, mainly due to revisions to historical data as well as changes in the supplyprofile of some countries. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are expected to average5.3 mb/d in 2011, an increase of 0.5 mb/d over the previous year. In February, total OPEC crudeoil production, according to secondary sources, increased by 110 tb/d to average 30.0 mb/d. 

 The sustained momentum in the middle distillates market received further support from theindustrial sector, contributing to stronger diesel demand across the globe. This offset the bearishsentiment in the top of the barrel and kept product markets healthy. Strong middle distillatedemand, amid reduced refinery runs due to seasonal maintenance, is likely to continue tosupport refinery margins over the coming months. 

 Tanker market sentiment strengthened, with spot freight rates increasing on most routes. Thegains were backed by factors such as holidays in the Far East and weather conditions, andoccurred despite higher bunker fuel prices and some refinery maintenance. OPEC fixturesdecreased by 960 tb/d to average 11.9 mb/d, which corresponds to almost two thirds of globalfixtures. OPEC sailings increased by 208 tb/d to 24.0 mb/d, according to preliminary estimates. 

 US commercial inventories fell by around 23.8 mb in February, reversing the build seen lastmonth. The stock draw was driven by the substantial drop in products, which declined by27.0 mb, while crude inventories saw a build of 3.2 mb. US commercial oil stocks in Februaryremained above the historical norm at 1051.1 mb. In Japan, the most recent data shows thatcommercial oil inventories declined by 2.4 mb in January, with crude seeing a draw of 2.6 mbwhile products experienced a slight build of 0.3 mb. Preliminary indications for February showthat Japanese commercial oil stocks fell a further 8.2 mb. 

 The demand for OPEC crude in 2010 is estimated at 29.3 mb/d, unchanged from the previousreport and about 0.3 mb/d higher than the year before. In 2011, the demand for OPEC crude isexpected to average 29.8 mb/d, unchanged from the previous assessment and an increase ofaround 0.5 mb/d over last year.