2009年10月石油市场月报(2009)MOMR October 2009(2009)

石油输出国组织（OPEC）9月份参考价格下跌4.18美元或5.9%，至67.17美元/桶。9月初股市的熊市走势对全球原油价格构成下行压力，产品库存增加了这一压力。然而，由于经济复苏，美元贬值、股票价格上涨和需求预测改善，市场情绪转向，原油价格上涨。这些因素继续推动市场进入10月，截至10月9日的一周内，该篮子从前一周的65.75美元/桶升至67.63美元/桶。有关2009年第三季度美国企业盈利的积极报告可能会进一步支持未来几周的市场情绪和价格。在财政和货币政策的支持下，世界经济出现了复苏的迹象，但私人支出仍然疲软，特别是在发达国家。2010年的经济增长预期增长了0.2个百分点，达到2.7%，而2009年的经济增长预期仍保持在负1.2%的水平。中国国内生产总值增长预测作了重大调整，预计2009年和2010年分别增长8.0%和8.5%。这突出表明，2010年预测对非经合组织国家的依赖性相对较高，这可能构成今后的额外挑战。非经合组织国家目前预计将占2010年世界经济增长的2.2个百分点，经合组织仅贡献0.5%。随着美国石油需求从历史急剧下降中反弹，2009年世界石油需求增长预测已经修正了20万桶/日，现在显示出140万桶/日的萎缩。考虑到世界经济的逐步改善，2010年全球石油需求增长已经修正了20万桶/日至70万桶/日。明年需求增长的大部分将发生在非经合组织国家，主要是中国、中东、印度和拉丁美洲。大部分需求将来自工业、运输和石化部门。2009年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应量预计将增加410 tb/d，主要原因是美国、俄罗斯和里海地区的石油供应量高于预期。2010年，在巴西、阿塞拜疆、加拿大和哈萨克斯坦的预期增长的支持下，非运营成本供应预计将增长350 tb/d。据预测，2010年欧佩克天然气和非常规石油产量将增加50万桶/日，达到平均530万桶/日。9月份，欧佩克原油总产量平均2890万桶/日，比上个月略有增加43 tb/d。由于汽油裂缝蔓延范围的缩小和全球蒸馏油库存的持续增加，9月份产品市场进一步下跌。尽管有关经济复苏和需求增长积极影响的报告令人乐观，但产品市场依然疲弱，迫使炼油企业削减运营水平。大西洋盆地的早期寒流可能为未来的产品和原油价格提供一定的支撑，但充足的馏出油库存可能限制这些积极的发展。欧佩克9月份的现货供应量比上月增长了12%。来自欧佩克的航行相对稳定。9月份，原油油轮市场的运价增长了5%，超大型油轮板块下跌了7%，苏伊士型油轮上涨了16%。随着原油期货合约结构的收窄，油轮上储存的原油减少了约10兆桶，但中间馏分油增加了约15兆桶。在苏伊士以东市场更加坚挺的情况下，清洁现货运费平均上涨了5%。美国商业石油库存恢复上升趋势，9月份增加1040万桶，达到11090万桶，意味着有近9000万桶的库存过剩。原油库存连续第五个月下降，但仍高于五年平均水平3200万桶。在欧洲，石油库存总量下降了近500万桶，但仍在五年期的上半年范围内。初步数据显示，8月份日本商业石油类股小幅下跌，但随后在9月份回升。据估计，2009年欧佩克原油需求平均为2860万桶/日，比上一份报告高出约10万桶/日。与上一年相比，这仍然是230万桶/日的大幅下降。2010年，预计欧佩克原油需求平均为2840万桶/日，较之前的评估上升了30万桶/日，较上年同期下降了20万桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket fell by $4.18 or 5.9% in September to reach $67.17/b. Bearishdevelopments in equity markets in early September exerted downward pressure on crude pricesacross the world, reinforced by product stock builds. However, US dollar depreciation, increasingequity prices and improving demand projections due to the economic recovery have turned marketsentiment and lifted crude prices. These factors continued to strengthen the market into Octoberwith the Basket rising to $67.63/b in the week ended 9 October from $65.75/b the week before.Positive reports about US corporate earnings for 3Q09 may provide further support for marketsentiment and prices in the weeks ahead. Supported by fiscal and monetary policy, the world economy is showing signs of recovery.However, private spending remains muted, particularly in the advanced countries. The growthforecast for 2010 was increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7%, while the 2009 forecast remainedat the level of minus 1.2%. The major adjustment was made in the forecast for Chinese GDP growthwhich is now projected to grow by 8.0% in 2009 and by 8.5% in 2010. This underlines the relativehigh dependency of the 2010 forecast on non-OECD countries, which could constitute an additionalchallenge going forward. Non-OECD countries are now expected to make up 2.2 percentage pointsof world economic growth in 2010 with OECD contributing only 0.5%. With the US oil demand bouncing back from a steep historical decline, the forecast for 2009 worldoil demand growth has been revised up by 0.2 mb/d to now show a contraction of 1.4 mb/d. Globaloil demand growth in 2010 has been revised up by 0.2 mb/d to 0.7 mb/d to take into account thegradual improvement in the world economy. The bulk of next year’s demand growth will take placein the non-OECD, mainly China, the Middle East, India, and Latin America. Most of this demand willbe as a result of industrial, transport and petrochemical sectors. Non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to increase by 410 tb/d in 2009, following an upward revisionmainly due to higher-than-expected supply from the US, Russia and Caspian region. In 2010, nonOPECoil supply is expected to grow 350 tb/d, supported by anticipated growth in Brazil, Azerbaijan,Canada and Kazakhstan. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are forecast to increase by 0.5mb/d in 2010 to average 5.3 mb/d. In September, total OPEC crude oil production averaged 28.9mb/d according to secondary sources, representing a slight increase of 43 tb/d over the previousmonth.Product markets lost further ground in September due to a narrowing of the gasoline crack spreadand continuation of distillate stockbuilding across the globe. Despite bullish reports about theeconomic recovery and the positive implications for demand growth, product markets remain weak,forcing refiners to trim operation levels. An early cold snap in the Atlantic Basin may provide somesupport for products and crude prices in the future, but ample distillate stocks could cap thesepositive developments. OPEC spot fixtures in September rose by 12% compared to the previous month. Sailings fromOPEC were relatively steady. Freight rates in the crude oil tanker market increased by a margin of5% in September with the VLCC sector falling 7% and Suezmax increasing by 16%. Storing crudeoil on tankers declined by about 10 mb with the narrowing of the contango structure in crude oilfutures, but middle distillates increased by about 15 mb. Clean spot freight rates increased by 5% onaverage with a much firmer East of Suez market. US commercial oil stocks resumed their upward trend, increasing 10.4 mb in September to standat 1,109 mb, implying an overhang of nearly 90 mb. The build was attributed to products, particularlydistillates, while crude oil stocks dropped for the fifth consecutive month but remained 32 mb abovethe five-year average. In Europe, total oil stocks dropped nearly 5 mb but remained within the upperhalf of the five-year range. Japan’s commercial oil stocks fell slightly in August but then recovered inSeptember, according to preliminary data. The demand for OPEC crude in 2009 is estimated to average 28.6 mb/d, around 0.1 mb/d higherfrom the previous report. This still represents a considerable decline of 2.3 mb/d compared to theprevious year. In 2010, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.4 mb/d, an upwardrevision of 0.3 mb/d from the previous assessment and a decline of 0.2 mb/d from a year earlier.