2012年3月石油市场月报(2012)MOMR March 2012(2012)

2月份，欧佩克的一篮子参考价格继续走高，收于117.48美元/桶，较上月上涨5.72美元/桶，涨幅5.1%。地缘政治因素进一步加剧了原油期货市场投机活动的激增，从而支持了这一增长。美国经济数据的改善和希腊金融救助计划的一些积极进展也对希腊提供了支持。2月份，原油期货价格也走高，纽约商品交易所（NYMEX）WTI指数上涨1.94美元，至平均102.26美元/桶，ICE布伦特指数上涨7.61美元，至平均119.06美元/桶。近几天，原油价格保持强劲，3月8日，欧佩克基准篮子指数为124.13美元/桶。

2012年和2011年世界经济增长率保持不变，分别为3.4%和3.6%。美国经济继续复苏，预计2012年将增长2.2%，与上月持平。日本的刺激措施和私营部门的重建工作预计将使2012年增长率降至1.8%，与上月持平的是，欧元区的减速已趋于平稳，2012年的增长预期仍为负0.2%。新兴市场似乎继续在高水平上扩张。中国对2012年的预测一直保持在8.2%，而印度经济增长放缓，2012年的预测从7.2%下调至7.1%。虽然全球产出活动在过去几周有所恢复，但下行风险依然存在。

据预测，2012年世界石油需求将增长90万桶/日，与上一份报告持平，2011年世界石油需求将略微下降80万桶/日。经合组织经济体增长速度缓慢，对石油需求产生负面影响，并给潜在消费增长带来很大的不确定性。尽管美国经济数据显示表现较好，但欧洲局势以及油价上涨已导致今年剩余时间的未来石油需求存在相当大的不确定性。

2012年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应预计将增加60万桶/日，此前一年仅小幅增长30吨/日。2012年这一数字较上个月下降了10万桶/日，主要原因是对叙利亚、前苏丹和也门的预测有所修正，以及一些国家的供应情况发生了变化，此外还更新了历史数据。预计2012年欧佩克天然气和非常规石油的平均供应量为570万桶/日，比上年增加40万桶/日，与上年持平。二级资源显示，2月份，欧佩克原油的总产量增加了140tb/d，达到平均3097mb/d。

由于经济疲弱和北半球冬季温和，对中间馏分油的需求令人失望，2月份产品市场人气转为看跌。欧洲暂时的寒流无法提振产品市场。巴雷瓦顶部的持续复苏超过了原油价格上涨，导致全球炼油厂利润率下降。

与上月相比，欧佩克2月份的现货供应量更高，平均为1230万桶/日。欧佩克的出海量也有所增加，但不同地区的目的地情况喜忧参半。今年2月，许多关键航线的可用吨位以及远东地区的假日期间继续对油轮现货运价构成压力，导致脏舱运价和净舱运价分别下降6%和8%。

2月份，美国商业石油库存增加了400万桶，顺差扩大，五年平均值为370万桶，比一年前增加了1260万桶。这一建设归因于原油，增加了590万桶，而产品下降了190万桶。在日本，1月份最新的一个月数据显示，商业石油库存连续第四个月下降了90万桶。根据这一数字，库存比一年前减少了140万件，而五年平均水平的赤字仍为980万件。所有的库存都来自原油，原油下降了120万桶，而原油产量上升了30万桶。

2011年对欧佩克原油的需求与之前估计的3010万桶/日持平，比2010年增加了40万桶/日。2012年，与上一份报告一致，预计欧佩克原油的平均需求量为300万桶/日，比去年减少约10万桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket continued to move higher in February, settling at $117.48/b,representing an increase of $5.72/b or 5.1% over the previous month. The increase was supportedby geopolitical factors that were further amplified by a surge in speculative activities in the crude oilfuture markets. The improvement in US economic data and some positive developments in theGreek financial bailout were also supportive. In February, crude futures also moved higher withNymex WTI increasing by $1.94 to average $102.26/b and ICE Brent gaining $7.61 to average$119.06/b. Crude oil prices have remained strong in recent days with the OPEC Reference Basketstanding at $124.13/b on 8 March.

  World economic growth remains unchanged at 3.4% for 2012 and 3.6% for 2011. The UScontinues recovering and is expected to grow by 2.2% in 2012, unchanged from the previous month.Japan’s stimulus along with expected reconstruction efforts by the private sector are expected todrive 2012 growth to 1.8%, unchanged from last month The Euro-zone’s deceleration has flattenedout and growth expectations for 2012 remain at minus 0.2%. Emerging markets seem to continueexpanding at high levels. China’s forecast has been kept at 8.2% for 2012, while growth in India’seconomy has slowed and the 2012 forecast has been revised down to 7.1% from 7.2%. While globaloutput activity has recovered to some extent in the past weeks, downside risks prevail.

  World oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.9 mb/d in 2012, unchanged from the previous report,following marginally decreased growth of 0.8 mb/d in 2011. The weak pace of growth in the OECDeconomies is negatively affecting oil demand and imposing a high range of uncertainty on potentialconsumption growth. Although US economic data points toward a better performance, the situationin Europe along with higher oil prices has resulted in considerable uncertainties on the future oildemand for the remainder of the year. 

Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to increase by 0.6 mb/d in 2012, following only minor growth of30 tb/d in the previous year. The 2012 figure represents a downward adjustment of 0.1 mb/d fromthe previous month, mainly due to revisions in forecasts for Syria, the former Sudan, and Yemen, aswell as changes in the supply profile of some countries, in addition to updates to historical data.OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are expected to average 5.7 mb/d in 2012, an increase of0.4 mb/d over the previous year and unchanged from the previous report. In February, total OPECcrude oil production, according to secondary sources, increased by 140 tb/d to average 30.97 mb/d. 

Product market sentiment turned bearish in February, following disappointing demand for middledistillates due to the weak economy and the mild winter in the Northern Hemisphere. The temporarycold spell in Europe was unable to lift product markets. A continued recovery at the top of the barrelwas outweighed by crude price gains, causing the refinery margins to decline worldwide. 

OPEC spot fixtures were higher in February compared to the previous month, averaging12.3 mb/d. OPEC sailings also increased, but destinations in different regions were mixed. Tonnageavailability on many key routes, as well as the holiday period in the Far East continued to pressuretanker spot freight rates in February, leading to a decline in both dirty and clean rates of 6% and 8%respectively.

  In February, US commercial oil stocks increased by 4.0 mb, widening the surplus with the fiveyearaverage to 37.0 mb and stood at 12.6 mb above a year ago. The build was attributable tocrude, which increased by 5.9 mb, while products fell 1.9 mb. In Japan, the most recent monthlydata for January shows that commercial oil inventories declined for the fourth consecutive month by0.9 mb. With this draw, inventories were 1.4 mb below a year ago, while the deficit with the five-yearaverage remained at 9.8 mb. All of the stockdraw came from crude, which declined by 1.2 mb, whileproducts rose 0.3 mb. 

Demand for OPEC crude in 2011 remained unchanged from the previous assessment at30.1 mb/d, representing a gain of 0.4 mb/d over the 2010 level. In 2012, demand for OPECcrude is projected to average 30.0 mb/d, in line with the previous report and about 0.1 mb/dlower than last year.