2016年9月石油市场月报(2016)MOMR September 2016(2016)

原油价格变动8月份，欧佩克参考价格篮子上涨42美元至43.10美元/桶。ICE布伦特原油期货价格上涨62美元，至47.16美元/桶，NYMEX WTI原油期货价格持平于44.80美元/桶。布伦特原油/WTI价差在8月份进一步扩大至2.36美元/桶。尽管美国原油库存意外增加、供应增加以及对中国需求的担忧在月底对价格造成压力，但原油价格上涨，出现供需平衡改善和美元疲软的迹象。2016年世界经济增长下调至2.9%，2017年仍保持在3.1%。1H16增长疲弱导致美国2016年增长预测下调至1.5%，而2017年增长预测仍为2.1%。鉴于16年上半年经济增长疲弱，日本经济增长率也下调至0.7%。欧元区今年和2017年的增长率保持不变，分别为1.5%和1.2%。对中国和印度的预测也保持不变，2016年为6.5%和7.5%，2017年为6.1%和7.2%。巴西和俄罗斯的数据与8月份的MOMR相比仍然没有变化，预计明年的增长率分别为0.4%和0.7%。经过总体上调后，预计2016年世界石油需求增长率将增加123万桶/日，主要反映出经合组织上半年好于预期的数据。2016年的石油需求预计平均为9427万桶/日。2017年，世界石油需求预计将增长115万桶/日，与8月份的MOMR持平，平均为9542万桶/日。明年的主要增长中心仍然是印度、中国和美国。2016年的世界石油供应预计将减少61万桶/日，从8月的MOMR到平均56.32 mb/d，年产量修正为0.18 mb/d。这主要是由于美国致密油产量下降低于预期，挪威的表现好于预期，以及inKazakhstan Kashagan油田的早期启动。2017年，非欧佩克天然气供应量修正为35万桶/日，增长20万桶/日，平均为56.52万桶/日，主要原因是卡沙干新增产量。预计2017年欧佩克天然气产量平均为643万桶/日，比今年增加15万桶/日。根据第二来源，欧佩克的产量下降了23 tb/d，降至3324 mb/d。大西洋盆地的产品市场和炼油业务产品市场在8月份有所增强。由于汽油需求强劲、对欧盟的出口机会，以及对热带风暴和美国墨西哥湾沿岸洪灾造成的天气干扰的担忧，炼油利润率受到了桶顶利好表现的支撑。在亚洲，由于需求强劲和秋季保养前库存下降，利润率略有回升。油轮市场脏油轮现货运价在8月份仍面临压力，所有类别的油轮都出现了负增长。自7月份以来，超大型油轮、苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮的即期运价分别下降了12%、30%和14%。运价下跌的主要原因是，在货物装载要求仍然有限的情况下，由于新交货导致的吨供应过剩。7月份，商业库存总量下降至3091百万桶，比最新五年平均水平高出约341百万桶。原油和产品库存分别出现2亿桶和1.41亿桶的盈余。就远期覆盖天数而言，经合组织7月份商业库存为66.1天，比季节平均水平高出约7天。预计2016年欧佩克原油供需平衡为3170万桶/日，同比约170万桶/日。2017年，预计欧佩克原油需求为3250万桶/日，比今年增加80万桶/日。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket rose 42 to $43.10/b in August. ICE Brent ended up 62 at$47.16/b, while NYMEX WTI was unchanged at $44.80/b. The Brent/WTI spread widenedfurther to $2.36/b in August. Crude price rose on signs of an improving supply/demandbalance and US dollar weakness, although a surprise build in US crude stocks, increasingsupplies and worries about Chinese demand pressured prices at the end of the month.World EconomyWorld economic growth was revised down to 2.9% for 2016 and remains at 3.1% for 2017.Weak 1H16 growth caused a downward revision to the US growth forecast for 2016 to1.5%, while the 2017 forecast remains at 2.1%. Growth in Japan was also revised down to0.7% given weak 1H16 growth. Euro-zone growth remains unchanged at 1.5% for this yearand 1.2% for 2017. Forecasts for China and India are also unchanged at 6.5% and 7.5%for 2016 and 6.1% and 7.2% for 2017. The figures for Brazil and Russia remain unchangedfrom the August MOMR, with growth forecast at 0.4% and 0.7% respectively for next year.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand growth in 2016 is now anticipated to increase by 1.23 mb/d after amarginal upward revision, mainly to reflect better-than-expected OECD data for the firsthalf of the year. Oil demand in 2016 is expected to average 94.27 mb/d. In 2017, world oildemand is anticipated to rise by 1.15 mb/d, unchanged from the August MOMR, toaverage 95.42 mb/d. The main growth centres for next year continue to be India, Chinaand the US.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply in 2016 is now expected to contract by 0.61 mb/d, following anupward revision of 0.18 mb/d from the August MOMR to average 56.32 mb/d. This hasbeen mainly due to a lower-than-expected decline in US tight oil and a better-thanexpectedperformance in Norway, as well as the early start-up of Kashagan field inKazakhstan. In 2017, non-OPEC supply was revised up by 0.35 mb/d to show growth of0.20 mb/d to average of 56.52 mb/d, mainly due to new production from Kashagan.OPEC NGLs are expected to average 6.43 mb/d in 2017, an increase of 0.15 mb/d overthe current year. OPEC output, according to secondary sources, dropped by 23 tb/d inAugust to 33.24 mb/d.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets in the Atlantic Basin strengthened in August. Refining margins weresupported by the positive performance at the top of the barrel due to strong gasolinedemand and export opportunities to the EU, as well as concerns about weather disruptionsfrom tropical storms and flooding in the US Gulf Coast. In Asia, margins showed a slightrecovery on the back of firm demand and falling inventories ahead of autumn maintenance.Tanker MarketDirty tanker spot freight rates remained under pressure in August, with negativedevelopments among all classes. VLCC, Suexmax and Aframax spot freight rates declinedby 12%, 30% and 14% since July. The drop in rates was mainly driven by excess tonnagesupply due to new deliveries at a time when cargo loading requirements remain limited.Stock MovementsOECD total commercial stocks fell in July to stand at 3,091 mb, some 341 mb above thelatest five-year average. Crude and product inventories showed surpluses of 200 mb and141 mb, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks in Julystood at 66.1 days, around 7 days higher than the seasonal average.Balance of Supply and DemandDemand for OPEC crude in 2016 is estimated to stand at 31.7 mb/d, some 1.7 mb/d overlast year. In 2017, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.5 mb/d, an increase of0.8 mb/d over the current year.