2004年9月石油市场月报(2004)MOMR September 2004(2004)

继第二季度经济放缓之后，世界经济在2004年剩余时间内似乎将出现趋势性增长。增长平衡可能与今年早些时候有所不同，欧洲将有所改善，亚洲面临出口增长下降的压力。来自中国的最新数据表明，工业活动已从二季度与投资相关的疲软中迅速复苏。尽管采取了限制性措施，但出口和内需首次强劲增长，生产者价格通胀率升至6.8%。如果当局被迫提高利率以冷却经济，对日本和其他亚洲投资产品供应商的影响可能会是巨大的。近几个月来，欧元区的活动有所改善，法国处于领先地位。德国国内需求终于有所改善，2004年德国国内生产总值预测提高了0.2%。随着企业投资前景保持健康，预计日本经济将从非常疲弱的第二季度复苏。美国和日本2004年或2005年的GDP增长预测没有变化。由于对德国经济增长预测进行了修订，欧元区2004年的增长预测已增至2%。反过来，这又将经合组织的总体预测提高到3.6%。对俄罗斯的预测稳定在7%，对非洲、拉丁美洲、亚洲（不包括日本）和整个发展中国家的预测也基本不变，尽管对欧佩克成员国的预测增加了0.3%。2004年世界经济的国内生产总值增长预测略高，为4.8%。2005年的预测意味着，在2003年开始的经济大幅复苏之后，经济增长率将回归正常水平。经合组织（OECD）地区预计2005年将增长3%，美国经济将达到3.5%。预计2005年欧元区经济增长率将增至2.2%，但日本经济可能放缓，仅增长2.1%，因为中国和美国需求的下降可能会抑制出口。预计发展中经济体2005年的增长速度也将放缓，预计2005年全世界经济将增长4.3%。今年8月，欧佩克（OPEC）参考指标篮子大幅飙升，掩盖了近期所有纪录高点。按月度计算，近4美元/桶的11%涨幅，使篮子平均价格远高于40美元/桶，这是该组织采用价格标记以来的首次。截至8月19日的一周，周均价格为41.94美元/桶，再创历史新高，而8月8日达到的43.16美元/桶创下了新的日均价格纪录。与2003年相比，今年迄今的平均增长幅度超过21%，即6美元/桶。按周计算，本月开盘时，该篮子价格飙升4.6%或1.72美元/桶，至平均39.12美元/桶。随后在未来两周内进一步上涨0.96美元/桶和1.86美元/桶。随后，该篮子下跌61/b，跌幅近1.5%，至平均41.33美元/桶。下跌延续至9月份，截至9月2日当周，该篮子下跌2.44美元/桶，或接近其价值的6%，至38.89美元/桶，低于40美元/桶的平均水平，油价下跌27/b，收于38.62/b美元。随着驾驶季的结束，市场的焦点已从汽油转向中间馏分油，而中间馏分油目前正引领着产品市场。8月份，较高的汽油产量和低于正常水平的库存消耗削弱了全球的汽油价格。加上轻质原油价格坚挺，导致美国和欧洲marginsin炼油厂的产量大幅下降。在亚洲，产品市场的表现超过了基准的涨幅，而这一领域的炼油利润率延续了此前的上升趋势。据预测，随着秋季炼油厂检修的开始，桶体中部的裂纹扩展仍将很强。欧佩克承租人在七月下半年触及了前所未有的水平，以非常高的运价来阻止船只停泊，8月份欧佩克地区的租船量下降。由于油轮需求放缓，中东和西行长途航线的超大型油轮运费在较低的现货固定装置上遭受了巨大损失。由于夏季假期，大多数租船人的到来拖累了产品运价，所有主要航线的运价都有所松动，特别是在地中海盆地内。2004年和2005年世界石油需求预测分别修正为8158万桶/日和8332万桶/日，原因是2004年第二季度需求增长率高达380万桶/日或4.95%。这是自1985年以来季度成交量增幅最大的一个季度，也是增长率最高的一个季度。与上一年的相应季度相比，上一季度的增幅最高，为1997年第三季度的315万桶/日。上一季度的最高增长率是1988年第四季度的4.69%。按第二来源计算，欧佩克8月份的原油产量估计为2979万桶/日，比7月份修订的数字高出26万桶/日。非欧佩克国家2004年的石油供应量估计为507万桶/日，比2003年的4862万桶/日高出145万桶/日。2005年非欧佩克石油供应预计将达到5127万桶/日，比2004年的预测增加119万桶/日。2002年和2003年FSU的净出口量估计分别为555万桶/日和646万桶/日，预计2004年和2005年分别增至726万桶/日和778万桶/日。8月份，商业石油库存总量几乎保持不变。从商业原油库存中提取的1290万美元被等量的产品库存所抵消。商业石油库存总量达到了令人满意的水平，达到了23.5兆桶或2.5%的同比盈余。欧洲的石油库存总量显示为460万桶，其中960万桶的产量大幅增加，使原油库存减少了500万桶。尽管如此，库存仍为960万件，比去年同期水平低1%。2004年7月，日本石油库存大幅增长100万桶，主要原因是原油库存几乎增加了700万桶，但仍显示出10.4%的同比短缺。

Following the second quarter slowdown the world economy looks set for trend-like growth in the remainder of 2004. Thebalance of growth may be different from earlier in the year, with Europe set to improve and Asia under pressure fromdeclining export growth. Latest data from China suggests that industrial activity has recovered rapidly from the investmentrelatedweakness in the second quarter. Despite the restrictive measures, exports and domestic demand grew strongly inAugust and producer price inflation rose to 6.8%. If the authorities are forced to raise interest rates to cool the economy, theimpact on Japan and other Asian suppliers of investment goods could be dramatic. Euro-zone activity has improved in recent months with France in the lead. Domestic demand in Germany has finally shownsigns of improvement and the German GDP forecast for 2004 has been raised by 0.2%. The Japanese economy is expectedto recover from a very weak second quarter as the outlook for corporate investment remains healthy. There are no changes tothe US or Japanese GDP growth forecasts for 2004 or 2005. As a result of the revision to the German growth forecast, the Euro-zone estimate for 2004 has been increased to 2%. In turnthis raises the overall OECD forecast to 3.6%. The forecast for Russia is held steady at 7% and the forecasts for Africa, LatinAmerica, Asia (excluding Japan) and Developing Countries as a whole are also largely unchanged although the forecast forOPEC Member Countries is increased by 0.3%. The GDP growth forecast for the world economy is slightly higher at 4.8%for 2004. The forecasts for 2005 imply a return to more normal growth rates following the sharp economic recovery which began in2003. The OECD region is expected to grow by 3% in 2005 with the US economy achieving 3.5%. The Euro-zone growthrate is forecast to increase to 2.2% in 2005 but the Japanese economy may slow, growing by only 2.1% as exports may belimited by lower Chinese and American demand. Developing economies are also expected to grow more slowly in 2005 andthe world economy as a whole is forecast to grow by 4.3% in 2005. In August, all recent record-highs were obscured by the dramatic surge in the OPEC Reference Basket. On a monthly basis,the 11% rise of almost $4/b took the Basket average well above $40/b for the first time since the Organization adopted theprice marker. The $41.94/b weekly average for the week ending 19 August constitutes another all-time record high, whilethe $43.16/b reached on 8 August set a new record daily average. The year-to-date average widened by more than 21% or$6/b compared to 2003. On a weekly basis, the month started with the Basket surging by 4.6% or $1.72/b to average$39.12/b. This was followed by further gains of $0.96/b and $1.86/b in the next two weeks. Then the Basket saw a downturnlosing 61/b or almost 1.5% to average $41.33/b. The fall extended into the month of September with the Basket losing$2.44/b or close to 6% of its value in the week ending 2 September which took the average below the $40/b mark to$38.89/b. The Basket continued to fall in the following week, although at a slower pace, shedding 27/b to close at $38.62/b. With the end of the driving season, the market’s focus has shifted from gasoline to middle distillates, which are now leadingthe product markets. In August, higher gasoline output and a lower-than-normal stock-draw undermined gasoline pricesacross the globe. This, coupled with the strong prices for light crude oil, resulted in a significant decline in refinery marginsin the USA and Europe. In Asia, the performance of the product market outpaced the rise in the benchmark, while refinerymargins in this area extended their previous upward trend. It is projected that, with the start of autumn refinery maintenance,the crack spread in the middle-of-the-barrel complex will remain strong. OPEC charterers refraining from fixing vessels given the very high freight rates, which touched unprecedented levels duringthe second half of July, pushed OPEC area spot chartering down during August. VLCC freight rates on the Middle Easteastbound and westbound long-haul routes experienced large losses on lower spot fixtures due to slower tanker demand. Theabsence of most charterers because of summer vacations weighed on product freight rates which loosened along all mainroutes, especially within the Mediterranean basin. The 2004 and 2005 world oil demand forecasts have been revised up to 81.58 mb/d and 83.32 mb/d respectively, due to theexceptionally high demand growth seen in the second quarter of 2004 at 3.80 mb/d or 4.95%. This represents both thelargest quarterly volume increment and the highest growth rate in any quarter since 1985. The previous high for thequarterly increment, which compares the quarter with corresponding one in the preceding year, was the 3.15 mb/d seen inthe third quarter of 1997. The previous high for quarterly growth was the 4.69% registered in the fourth quarter of 1988. OPEC crude oil production in August, based on secondary sources, is estimated at 29.79 mb/d, 0.26 mb/d above the revisedJuly figure. Non-OPEC oil supply for 2004 is estimated at 50.07 mb/d, which is 1.45 mb/d higher than the 48.62 mb/destimated for 2003. Non-OPEC supply in 2005 is expected to reach 51.27 mb/d, an increase of 1.19 mb/d over the 2004forecast. Net FSU exports for 2002 and 2003 are estimated at 5.55 mb/d and 6.46 mb/d respectively, and are expected to riseto 7.26 mb/d in 2004 and 7.78 mb/d in 2005. In August, total commercial oil stocks remained almost unchanged. The 12.9 mb draw on commercial crude oil stocks wasoffset by a build of the same amount in product inventories. Total commercial oil stocks are at comfortable levels registeringa 23.5 mb or 2.5% y-o-y surplus. Total oil stocks in Europe displayed a build of 4.6 mb, with the large 9.6 mb increase inproducts abating the 5.0 mb draw on crude oil inventories. Despite this build, inventories were 9.6 mb or 1% below lastyear’s level at this time. Japan’s oil stocks rose a substantial 10.0 mb in July 2004, mainly due to a large increase of almost7 mb in crude oil stocks, but still displayed a y-o-y shortage of 10.4%.