2014年5月石油市场月报(2014)MOMR May 2014(2014)

原油价格变动欧佩克4月参考价格篮子上涨12美元至104.27美元/桶，多数组成部分价格略有改善。原油价格的支撑因素包括更为坚挺的炼油利润率、持续的供应中断以及一些炼油厂的维修恢复。纽约商品交易所（Nymex）WTI平均上涨1.53美元至102.03美元/桶，ICE布伦特原油价格上涨34美元至108.09美元/桶。布伦特WTI价差本月结束时平均约为6.05美元/桶，为2013年9月以来的最低点。2014年世界经济增长率保持在3.4%，2013年增长率为2.9%。欧洲经合组织（ECD）的经济增长预测仍为2.0%，美国经济增长率下调，欧元区经济增长率小幅上升。中国和印度的经济增长率分别为7.5%和5.6%。2014年经济增长的主要推动力来自经合组织（OECD）经济体，而新兴市场正在放缓。随着一些主要经合组织经济体（主要是美国和日本）最近的疲软，全球经济增长预测的风险目前略微偏向于下行。2014年，全球石油需求预计将增加114万桶/日，达到9115万桶/日，与上一份报告持平。几乎一半的年度石油需求增长似乎来自中国和中东。2013年世界石油需求量预计为9001万桶/日，较上年增长105万桶/日。欧佩克2014年全球石油供应增长略为上升，至138万桶/日。欧佩克2013年的估计也略为上升，至135万桶/日。欧佩克2013年和2014年的NGL分别下降0.1万桶/日，至566万桶/日和581万桶/日。根据第二来源，欧佩克4月份的原油产量平均为2959万桶/日，增加了131吨/日。受石油桶顶部事态发展的推动，大西洋盆地的产品市场和炼油业务产品市场在4月份有所加强。美国强劲的汽油需求和出口美国的更多机会导致利润率大幅回升。在亚洲，油价的上涨部分受到了油价持续走低的限制，4月份油轮市场运价下跌，脏油轮和清洁油轮均下跌。较低的年需求、炼油厂维护和节假日是导致现货运价下降的主要因素。清洁油轮市场也受到类似因素的影响，苏伊士以东市场下跌4.5%，苏伊士以西市场下跌21.5%。3月份，商业股下跌，主要受原油价格上涨带动。五年平均赤字为115MB，分为原油和产品两部分。就远期覆盖率而言，经合组织商业股为56.8天，比五年平均水平低约0.2天。4月份的初步数据显示，美国商业石油库存猛增4710万桶，但仍与5年平均水平持平。2013年和2014年，与上一份报告相比，欧佩克原油供需平衡需求量分别上升了10万桶/日。2013年欧佩克原油需求为3010万桶/日，较上年下降了040万桶/日。预计2014年欧佩克原油需求为2980万桶/日，较2013年下降40万桶/日。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket in April increased 12 to $104.27/b, amid marginalimprovements in most component values. Crude prices were supported by firmer refiningmargins, ongoing supply outages, and the return of some refineries from maintenance. Onaverage, Nymex WTI gained $1.53 to $102.03/b and ICE Brent increased 34 to$108.09/b. The Brent-WTI spread ended the month with an average of around $6.05/b, thenarrowest since September 2013.World EconomyWorld economic growth in 2014 remains at 3.4%, following growth of 2.9% in 2013. TheOECD growth forecast remains at 2.0%, with the US revised down and the Euro-zoneslightly higher. China’s growth forecast remains at 7.5% and India’s at 5.6%. The main liftfor 2014 growth is seen coming from OECD economies, while emerging markets areslowing. With the most recent weakness in some major OECD economies – mainly the USand Japan – the risk to the global growth forecast is seen currently skewed slightly to thedownside.World Oil DemandGlobal oil demand is expected to increase by 1.14 mb/d to reach 91.15 mb/d in 2014,unchanged from the previous report. Almost half of annual oil demand growth is seencoming from China and the Middle East. The estimate for world oil demand in 2013 wasunchanged at 90.01 mb/d, representing growth of 1.05 mb/d over the previous year.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC supply growth in 2014 was revised up marginally to stand at 1.38 mb/d. Theestimate for 2013 was also adjusted slightly higher to stand at 1.35 mb/d. OPEC NGLswere revised down by 0.1 mb/d for both 2013 and 2014 to stand at 5.66 mb/d and5.81 mb/d respectively. OPEC crude production, according to secondary sources,averaged 29.59 mb/d in April, representing an increase of 131 tb/d.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets in the Atlantic Basin strengthened in April, driven by developments at thetop of the barrel. Stronger gasoline demand in the US and higher export opportunities toSouth America led to a sharp recovery in margins. In Asia, the uptick was partially limitedby the continued weakness at the bottom of the barrel.Tanker MarketFreight rates declined in April, with both dirty and clean tankers losing ground. Lowertonnage demand, refinery maintenance and holidays were the main factors behind thedecline in spot freight rates. The clean tanker market was influenced by similar factors, withthe East of Suez market down 4.5% and the West of Suez declining 21.5%.Stock MovementsOECD commercial stocks declined in March, driven mainly by products as crude saw abuild. The deficit with the five-year average stood at 115 mb, split between crude andproducts. In terms of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 56.8 days, around0.2 days less than the five-year average. Preliminary data for April shows US commercialoil stocks jumped by 47.1 mb, but remained in line with the five-year average.Balance of Supply and DemandDemand for OPEC crude in 2013 and 2014 saw an upward revision of 0.1 mb/d eachcompared to the previous report. At 30.1 mb/d, demand for OPEC crude in 2013 stood0.4 mb/d lower than in the previous year. Demand for OPEC crude in 2014 is forecast at29.8 mb/d, down 0.4 mb/d from the 2013 level.