2014年1月石油市场月报(2014)MOMR January 2014(2014)

原油价格走势

欧佩克参考篮子在12月反弹2.70美元，收于$ 107.67 / b。按年计算，篮子价格在2013年平均约为$ 106 / b，与上一年相比下降约3.50美元。 2013年，WTI期货上涨近4美元，至平均约98美元/桶，北海布伦特期货下跌3美元，至约109美元/桶。总体而言，2013年原油市场价格波动仍然很小。

世界经济

2013年和2014年世界经济增长率分别维持在2.9％和3.5％。经合组织经济体正在复苏，预计2014年将以1.9％的速度增长，而2013年则为1.2％，与上个月的预测持平。 2013年和2014年，中国的经济增长均保持在7.8％不变，而印度的预测分别为4.7％和5.6％。

世界石油需求

将2013年世界石油需求增长上调70吨/天，至0.9 mb /天。经合组织美洲和欧洲的向上修订反映了最新数据。 2014年，预计增长速度将达到约1.0 mb / d，与上月持平。

世界石油供应

 2013年非欧佩克的石油供应增长估计为1.2 mb / d，比上月的报告增加了50 tb / d。对本年度的预测也进行了上调，上调70吨/天至1.3 mb /天。预计增长主要来自美国，加拿大，巴西和苏丹，而2014年挪威，英国和墨西哥则呈下降趋势。预计2014年欧佩克NGLs将增加150吨/天。欧佩克2014年原油平均产量为29.44 mb / d。据二级消息人士称，12月下降了20吨/天。

产品市场和炼油业务

产品市场表现好坏参半，在石化需求增加的支撑下，石脑油的顶部继续走强。但是，燃油损失远远超过了燃油损失，导致大西洋盆地的利润下降。在亚洲，由于季节性需求增加，炼厂利润率有所回升。

油轮市场

 由于市场活动活跃，船舶供应紧张和天气延迟，12月脏污和清洁油轮夹具的现货运费均出现了大幅增长。

股票走势

在原油和产品均下跌的带动下，经合组织11月份商业库存下降。原油显示出五年平均水平的盈余56 mb，而产品则显示出87 mb的赤字。经合组织的商业库存为58.1天。 12月的初步数据表明，原油和产品的美国商业库存均出现季节性下降。

供需平衡

2013年和2014年对OPEC原油的需求保持不变。2013年所需的OPEC原油需求量估计为29.9 mb / d，比上一年减少0.5 mb / d。 2014年，欧佩克原油需求量预计为29.6 mb / d，比去年下降0.4 mb / d。

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket rebounded by $2.70 in December to settle at $107.67/b.In annual terms, the Basket price averaged around $106/b in 2013, a decline of around$3.50 compared to the previous year. In 2013, WTI futures gained nearly $4 to averageabout $98/b and North Sea Brent futures fell $3 to average around $109/b. Overall,price volatility in crude markets remained low in 2013.

World Economy 

World economic growth for 2013 and 2014 remains at 2.9% and 3.5% respectively.The OECD economies are recovering and are expected to grow in 2014 at 1.9%,compared to 1.2% in 2013, unchanged from previous month’s forecast. China’s growthremains unchanged at 7.8% for both 2013 and 2014, while India’s forecast remains at4.7% and 5.6%.

World Oil Demand 

World oil demand growth for 2013 was revised up by 70 tb/d to stand at 0.9 mb/d. Theupward revisions in OECD Americas and Europe reflect the most recent data. For2014, growth is expected to increase to around 1.0 mb/d, unchanged from the previousmonth.

World Oil Supply

 Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2013 is estimated at 1.2 mb/d, up by 50 tb/d from theprevious month’s report. The forecast for the current year was also revised higher, up70 tb/d to 1.3 mb/d. Growth is seen coming mainly from the US, Canada, Brazil and theSudans, while Norway, UK and Mexico are seen declining in 2014. OPEC NGLs areexpected to increase by 150 tb/d in 2014. OPEC crude production averaged29.44 mb/d in December, according to secondary sources, indicating a drop of 20 tb/d.

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Product markets saw a mixed performance with the top of the barrel strengthening asnaphtha continues to be strong on the back of higher petrochemical demand. Howeverthis was outweighed by fuel oil losses, which caused margins to drop in the AtlanticBasin. In Asia, refinery margins showed some recovery on the back of strongerseasonal demand.

Tanker Market

 Spot freight rates saw a significant increase in December in both dirty and clean tankerfixtures, due to high market activities, tight vessel availability and weather delays. 

Stock Movements 

OECD commercial stocks fell in November driven by a decline in both crude andproducts. Crude showed a surplus of 56 mb over the five-year average, while productsindicated a deficit of 87 mb. OECD commercial stocks stood at 58.1 days of forwardcover. Preliminary data for December indicates a seasonal drop in US commercialstocks for both crude and products.

Balance of Supply and Demand 

Demand for OPEC crude remains unchanged in 2013 and 2014. Required OPECcrude for 2013 is estimated at 29.9 mb/d, representing a decrease of 0.5 mb/d from theprevious year. In 2014, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 29.6 mb/d, a drop of0.4 mb/d from last year.