2013年6月石油市场月报(2013)MOMR June 2013(2013)

石油市场亮点

5月份，欧佩克的参考篮子平均为100.65美元/桶，较上月略有下降40美元。今年迄今，篮子价值较去年同期下跌9.75美元或8.4%，至105.85美元/桶。篮子组件的表现喜忧参半。虽然中东现货原油跌幅最大，但拉丁美洲的原油品位有所提高。纽约商品交易所（NymexWTI）和冰布伦特（ICE Brent）5月份价格走势相反。美国轻质原油期货价格大幅上涨，原因是美国中西部库存过剩，以及近期宏观经济数据显示美国经济逐步好转。相比之下，在原油供应改善的情况下，洲际布伦特原油合约受到欧洲经济前景持续疲弱以及中国经济增长乏力的影响。纽约商品交易所WTI指数本月上涨2.73美元，至平均94.80美元/桶，而ICE布伦特指数下跌15美元，至平均103.28美元/桶。

2013年世界经济增长预计为3.2%，与上个月持平，不过个别预测有所修正。在持续的刺激措施下，日本的预测从1.1%上调至1.5%。欧元区面临的挑战仍在继续，尽管预计今年晚些时候会出现复苏，但目前预测欧元区经济将进一步萎缩0.6%。尽管美联储货币刺激存在调整的可能性，但美国住房市场和劳动力市场的复苏是积极的，GDP增长率在2013时仍保持在1.8%。中国受到经济活动减速的影响，经济增长率从8.0%修正为7.9%，而印度的预测则保持在6.0%不变。虽然全球经济形势最近开始放缓，但目前预计下半年将出现一些反弹。

2013年，世界石油需求预计将增长80万桶/日，与去年的增长一致。尽管由于实际数据，第一季度的预测值有所下调，但与上一份报告相比，该预测值仍保持不变。在非经合组织国家，石油消费预计将增长120万桶/日，略低于去年。中国将继续以40万桶/日的速度增长，中东将以30万桶/日的速度增长，其他亚洲和拉丁美洲地区将分别以20万桶/日的速度增长。相比之下，经合组织的需求预计将萎缩40万桶/日，尽管比2012年略有改善。

2013年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应预计将增长100万桶/日，与上次报告持平，美国的强劲预期增长为支撑。预计2012年非欧佩克国家的石油供应增长将达到50万桶/日。预计欧佩克天然气和非常规石油在2013年的平均供应量为590万桶/日，比上一年增加了20万桶/日。根据第二来源的数据，今年5月，欧佩克原油平均产量为357万桶/日，比上月增加106吨/日。

5月份产品市场表现喜忧参半。桶顶小幅走强，汽油需求开始显示出摆脱春季低迷的迹象。然而，由于蒸馏水需求仍然疲软，顶部的改善不足以抵消桶中间的损失，从而阻止了炼油厂利润率的任何上升。总的来说，夏季需求季节在大西洋两岸都开始缓慢。

在油轮市场，5月份脏货现货运价涨跌互现。东部和西部目的地的超大型油轮平均运价都有所上升，这主要是炼油厂维修结束的结果。与此同时，苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮的平均运价较一个月前有所下降，苏伊士以东和以西的清洁现货运价因吨位供应量大而有所下降。5月份，欧佩克石油输出国组织（OPECspot）的石油产量比上个月增长了10%，欧佩克的出海量增长了1.2%。

经合组织4月份商业石油库存总量连续第二个月增长，增长1920万桶，但仍与5年平均水平大体持平。原油库存保持在令人满意的水平，比5年平均水平多出1800万桶，而产品库存仍然紧张，季节平均水平为1900万桶。就远期覆盖天数而言，经合组织商业投资为59.1天，比五年平均水平高出约1.1天。5月份的初步数据显示，美国商业石油库存总量增加了1550万桶，与五年平均水平相比，盈余为4500万桶。美国原油商业库存5月份结束时为3590万桶，高于5年平均水平，而成品油则高出880万桶。

2012年，欧佩克原油需求为3020万桶/日，与之前的评估结果持平，与2011年的水平基本一致。预计2013年欧佩克原油需求为2980万桶/日，与上一份报告持平，比去年减少40万桶/日。

Oil Market Highlights 

The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $100.65/b in May, representing a slight decline of 40 fromthe previous month. Year-to-date, the Basket value declined $9.75 or 8.4% compared to the sameperiod last year to stand at $105.85/b. The performance of Basket components was mixed. Whilethe Middle Eastern spot-related crudes fell the most, the Latin American grades improved. NymexWTI and ICE Brent prices moved in opposite directions in May. US light crude futures rose sharplyon the easing overhang in inventories in the US Midwest, as well as recent macroeconomic datapointing to a gradual improvement in the US economy. In contrast, the ICE Brent contract wasaffected by the persistently weak economic outlook in Europe, as well as poor Chinese economicgrowth, amid improving crude oil supplies. Nymex WTI gained $2.73 to average $94.80/b for themonth, while ICE Brent slipped 15 to average $103.28/b.

 World economic growth is forecast at 3.2% for 2013, unchanged from the previous month,although with some revisions to the individual forecasts. Japan’s forecast has been revised higher to1.5% from 1.1% amid ongoing stimulus efforts. The Euro-zone’s challenges continue, with theforecast now showing a deeper contraction of 0.6%, although a recovery is expected for later in theyear. While the possibility of some adjustment in the Fed's monetary stimulus exists, the recovery inthe US housing and labour markets has been positive and GDP growth for 2013 remainsunchanged at 1.8%. China has been impacted by decelerating activity and growth has been revisedto 7.9% from 8.0%, while India’s forecast is unchanged at 6.0%. While the global economicmomentum has started slowing recently, some rebound is currently forecast for the second half ofthe year. 

World oil demand is expected to increase by 0.8 mb/d in 2013, in line with the growth seen lastyear. The forecast remains unchanged from the previous report, despite a downward revision to thefirst quarter due to actual data. In the non-OECD, oil consumption is projected to grow by 1.2 mb/d,slightly lower than last year. China is seen continuing to grow at 0.4 mb/d, the Middle East at0.3 mb/d, and Other Asia and Latin America regions at 0.2 mb/d each. In contrast, OECD demand isexpected to see a contraction of 0.4 mb/d, although a slight improvement over 2012. 

Non-OPEC oil supply growth is projected at 1.0 mb/d in 2013, unchanged from the last report,supported by strong anticipated growth from the US. Estimated non-OPEC supply growth in 2012stands at 0.5 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and nonconventional oils are expected to average 5.9 mb/d in2013, a gain of 0.2 mb/d over the previous year. In May, OPEC crude oil production averaged30.57 mb/d, according to secondary sources, an increase of 106 tb/d over last month. 

Product markets exhibited a mixed performance in May. The top of the barrel strengthened slightly,with gasoline demand beginning to show signs of snapping out of its spring slump. However, theimprovement in the top was not enough to offset losses at the middle of the barrel, as distillatedemand remained weak, thus preventing any upward movement in refinery margins. Overall, thesummer demand season has been off to a slow start on both sides of the Atlantic. 

In the tanker market, dirty spot freight rates were mixed in May. Average VLCC rates haveincreased for both eastern and western destinations, mainly as a result of the end of the refinerymaintenance. Meanwhile, average Suezmax and Aframax rates declined from a month earlier.Clean spot freight rates fell East and West of Suez on the back of high tonnage availability. OPECspot fixtures rose by 10% in May over the previous month and OPEC sailings were 1.2% higher.

 Total OECD commercial oil stocks rose for the second consecutive month in April, up 19.2 mb,but remained broadly in line with the five-year average. Crude stocks stood at a comfortable level,with a surplus of 18 mb over the five-year average, while product inventories remained tight with adeficit of 19.0 mb with the seasonal average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercialinventories stood at 59.1 days, some 1.1 days over the five-year average. Preliminary data for Mayshows that total US commercial oil stocks rose by 15.5 mb to show a surplus of 45.0 mb with thefive-year average. US crude oil commercial stocks finished May at 35.9 mb over the five-yearaverage, while products were 8.8 mb higher. 

Demand for OPEC crude in 2012 stood at 30.2 mb/d, unchanged from the previous assessmentand broadly in line with the 2011 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2013 is forecast at 29.8 mb/d,unchanged from the previous report and 0.4 mb/d lower than last year.