2013年7月石油市场月报(2013)MOMR July 2013(2013)

6月份，欧佩克的参考价格平均为101.03美元/桶，比上月增加38美元。今年上半年，该篮子平均价格为105.09美元/桶，下降了6.96美元。6月份，大部分组成价值都有所改善，特别是酸性品级，这得益于购买兴趣的增加和炼油利润率的提高。Nymex WTI从美国的积极经济数据中获得了支持，由于洪水导致加拿大原油运输量减少，并且限制了油砂项目的原油产量。不过，本月晚些时候，原油期货价格走弱，数据显示中国经济增长放缓，美联储暗示可能开始控制量化宽松政策。

2013年世界经济增长率已从3.2%下调至3.0%，主要受新兴经济体增长放缓的推动。2014年，经合组织经济体的预期反弹将导致全球经济增长3.5%。2013年美国经济增长率保持在1.8%，预计明年将增长2.5%。欧元区今年的增长率保持在负0.6%不变，但预计2014年将反弹至正0.6%。日本今年的经济增长率已从1.5%上调至1.8%，但预计明年将放缓至1.4%。总投资减速和出口放缓继续影响中国和印度。中国2013年的经济增长率已从7.9%下调至7.7%，预计2014年将保持同样水平的增长。印度今年的经济增长率已从6.0%降至5.6%，预计来年将增长6.0%。

2013年世界石油需求增长率目前约为80万桶/日，此前略有下调。这主要是因为发布了2013年第一季度的最新实际数据和2013年第二季度的初步数据。2014年，世界石油需求预计将以更高的速度增长，从100万桶/日增长到平均9070万桶/日。这意味着与本年度预测的增长相比，将增长约30万桶/日。2014年，非经合组织国家的石油需求预计将以120万桶/日的速度增长，而经合组织的消费预计将继续下降，但下降的速度较低，将减少20万桶/日。全球主要经济体的增长恢复速度是影响2014年世界石油需求预测的主要不确定因素之一。

在经合组织（OECD）美洲、FSU和中国的预期增长的支持下，2013年非欧佩克国家的石油供应预计将增加100万桶/日。2014，非欧佩克供应量预计将增长1.1Mb/d。预计美国、加拿大、巴西、苏丹、哈萨克斯坦和澳大利亚将是供应增长的主要贡献者，而挪威、叙利亚、墨西哥和英国预计将出现最大跌幅。2014年，欧佩克天然气和非常规石油的平均日产量为60万桶，比今年增加了10万桶。据第二位消息人士透露，今年6月，欧佩克的产量估计为3038万桶/日，较上月下降了31万桶/日。

6月份产品市场表现喜忧参半。大西洋盆地的原油桶顶疲软，由于到目前为止的驾驶季节还没有提供预期的强劲提振，需求下降导致汽油价格下跌。相比之下，中间馏分油在全球范围内走强，原因是在一些地区暂时收紧政策的情况下，需求略有回升，这使得这些中间馏分油在亚洲和欧洲得以复苏。

6月份，超大型油轮运价上涨，苏伊士型油轮和法拉马克斯型油轮现货运价下跌，油轮市场情绪喜忧参半。从中东到亚洲的船运支持超大型油轮的运价，而美国海湾的低吨位需求和延误影响了苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮市场。6月份的产品现货运价下降了10%，反映出活动有限和吨位充足。6月份，欧佩克的航行量下降了0.7%。

经合组织（OECD）5月份商业石油库存总量连续第三个月增长1170万桶，但与5年平均水平基本持平。原油库存保持在一个令人满意的水平，五年平均水平上的asurplus为1300万桶，而产品库存仍然紧张，显示出1730万桶的赤字。在远期保护期内，经合组织的商业库存为58.9天，比五年平均水平高出1.2天。6月份的初步数据显示，美国商业石油库存总量增加了1420万桶，比5年平均水平多出4820万桶。截至6月底，美国原油库存比5年平均水平高出3380万桶，而成品油则显示出1440万桶的盈余。

据预测，今年欧佩克原油需求平均为2990万桶/日，与上一份报告基本持平，较2012年下降40万桶/日。根据2014年对世界石油需求和非欧佩克石油供应（包括欧佩克天然气）的初步预测，明年欧佩克原油需求预计将达到平均2960万桶/日，降幅为30万桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $101.03/b in June, representing an increase of 38 overthe previous month. In the first half of the year, the Basket averaged $105.09/b, a decline of $6.96.Most component values improved in June, particularly sour grades, which were supported byincreased buying interest and better refining margins. Nymex WTI found support from positiveeconomic data from the US, reduced Canadian crude shipments due to flooding, and restrictedcrude production from oil sand projects. However, later in the month, crude futures prices weakenedon data showing slowing economic growth in China and hints from the US Federal Reserve that itmay start reining in quantitative easing. 

World economic growth for 2013 has been revised down to 3.0% from 3.2%, driven mainly byslowing growth in emerging economies. In 2014, an expected rebound in the OECD economiesshould lead to global growth of 3.5%. US growth remains at 1.8% for 2013 and is forecast to grow by2.5% next year. Euro-zone’s growth remains unchanged at minus 0.6% for this year, but is expectedto rebound to plus 0.6% in 2014. Japan’s growth for the current year has been revised up to 1.8%from 1.5%, but is forecast to slow to 1.4% next year. Decelerating total investments and slowingexports continue to impact China and India. China’s growth in 2013 has been revised down to 7.7%from 7.9% and is forecast to grow at the same level in 2014. India’s growth this year has beenrevised down to 5.6% from 6.0%, and is expected to expand by 6.0% in the coming year.

 World oil demand growth for 2013 now stands at around 0.8 mb/d, following a marginal downwardrevision. This has been mainly due to the release of the latest actual data for 1Q13 and preliminarydata for 2Q13. In 2014, world oil demand is projected to grow at a higher rate of 1.0 mb/d to average90.7 mb/d. This represents an around 0.3 mb/d rise from the growth predicted for the current year. In2014, non-OECD countries are projected to lead oil demand growth with 1.2 mb/d, while OECDconsumption is seen continuing to decline but at a lower rate, contracting by 0.2 mb/d. The pace ofrecovery in growth in major economies around the globe is one of the main uncertainties affectingworld oil demand projections in 2014. 

Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to increase by 1.0 mb/d in 2013, supported by anticipated growthfrom OECD Americas, the FSU, and China. In 2014, non-OPEC supply is forecast to grow by1.1 mb/d. The US, Canada, Brazil, the Sudans, Kazakhstan, and Australia are expected to be themain contributors to the supply increase, while Norway, Syria, Mexico, and the UK are forecast tosee the largest declines. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are seen averaging 6.0 mb/d in2014, indicating an increase of 0.1 mb/d over the current year. In June, according to secondarysources, OPEC production is estimated at 30.38 mb/d, a decline of 0.31 mb/d from a month earlier. 

Product markets exhibited a mixed performance in June. The top of the barrel weakened in theAtlantic Basin, with gasoline losing ground due to lower demand as the driving season has so far notprovided the strong boost expected. In contrast, middle distillates strengthened worldwide on theback of a slight recovery in demand amid temporary tightening in some regions, which allowed themargins to recover in Asia and Europe.

 Tanker market sentiment was mixed in June as VLCC freight rates increased, while Suezmax andAframax spot rates declined. Shipments from the Middle East to Asia supported VLCC rates whilelow tonnage requirements and delays in the US Gulf influenced the Suezmax and Aframax markets.Product spot freight rates in June fell 10%, reflecting limited activities and ample tonnage availability.OPEC sailing dropped by 0.7% in June. 

Total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 11.7 mb in May for the third consecutive month, butremain broadly in line with the five-year average. Crude stocks stood at a comfortable level, with asurplus of 13 mb over the five-year average, while product stocks remained tight showing a deficit of17.3 mb. In days of forward cover, OECD commercial inventories stood at 58.9 days, 1.2 days overthe five-year average. Preliminary data for June shows that US total commercial oil stocks rose by14.2 mb, showing a surplus of 48.2 mb over the five-year average. US crude oil stocks at the end ofJune stood at 33.8 mb above the five-year average, while products showed a surplus of 14.4 mb. 

Demand for OPEC crude for this year is forecast to average 29.9 mb/d, almost unchanged from theprevious report and a decline of 0.4 mb/d from 2012. Based on the initial 2014 forecasts for world oildemand and non-OPEC supply (including OPEC NGLs), demand for OPEC crude next year isprojected to average 29.6 mb/d, representing a decline of 0.3 mb/d.