2005年6月石油市场月报(2005)MOMR June 2005(2005)

最近几周，欧元区前景的恶化占据了经济头条。意大利经济衰退，德国第二季度GDP可能下降。法国经济的表现也有所恶化，只有佩恩继续以令人满意的速度增长。政治上的不确定性增加了这些经济问题，因为法国和荷兰的选民都反对新的欧洲宪法。2005年欧元区经济增长预期从1.1%降至1%。

美国和中国的增长继续强劲。在美国，制造业正看到一些弱点，但消费支出的稳步增长正导致服务业的增长。2005年的增长预测不变，为3.4%。中国经济继续由出口和投资驱动，尽管增长速度可能会因投入成本上升而放缓。5月份，生产者价格上涨了近6%，当局可能会采取进一步措施来刺激经济。中国2005年的经济增长预期保持在8.6%不变。

日本公布强劲的第一季度数据，证实国内需求已开始稳步复苏。就业和国内收入的好转趋势弥补了出口增长乏力。据预测，日本2005年的经济增长率为1.7%，高于此前的1.4%。预计2005年世界经济增长率将保持在4.1%不变，因为日本的良好前景有望弥补欧洲的疲软。

5月份，欧佩克参考价格指数暴跌2.67美元或5.4%，收于46.96美元/桶，原因是陡峭的期货市场和欧佩克原油价格支持强劲的库存建设，有助于缓解供应担忧。然而，在五家欧洲炼油厂罢工后，由于对产品的担忧，金价在本月底再度上扬。上升趋势一直持续到6月，因为美国的蒸馏库存水平引发了进一步的产品供应担忧，而美国飓风季节的提前开始也支持了这一担忧。因此，6月的篮子价格自4月下旬以来首次超过50美元/桶的水平，在截至6月9日的一周内平均为50.73美元，在6月15日继续增加，达到52.26美元/桶。

4月初开始的季节性看涨走势受到了不同市场（尤其是美国）汽油库存高企、炼油厂从维修期恢复、产量增加以及汽油需求较去年前5个月放缓等因素的影响。因此，即使在驾驶季节开始之际，汽油产品也未能占据市场的季节性领导地位。与汽油市场的疲软形成鲜明对比的是，蒸馏油市场看起来异常强劲。随着美国炼油厂产量的增加和馏分油库存的进一步改善，这种情况可能在未来几周内发生变化，并缓解市场压力。

今年5月，欧佩克的现货租船量下降了120万桶/日，降幅为9%，至近1280万桶/日，为近一年来的最低水平，其中中东地区的长途租船量下降了70万桶/日。来自欧佩克地区的船运量仍稳定在2710万桶/日，但较去年同期上升了430万桶/日。原油运价走势喜忧参半，由于油轮供应过剩，超大型油轮板块达到19个月的WS70，苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮运价有所改善，除印尼/美国西海岸航线外，均高于去年。由于活动减少，产品运费连续第二个月下降。

随着今年上半年接近尾声，第一季度全球石油需求初步数据显示，农业年环比增长近2.5%，预计世界经济增长率为4.1%，最新的全球石油需求预测显示，增长率为2.2%或180万桶/日，年平均增长率为8390万桶/日。对上月增长率的下调是由于经合组织两个区域（北美和西欧）的预期增长略低，以及对拉丁美洲和拉丁美洲的预测下调所致中东。

2005年非欧佩克国家全年供应展望与上月报告持平。预计非欧佩克国家的供应量平均为5060万桶/日，比上一年增加了80万桶/日。第二季度第一季度和前两个月的实际数据导致经合组织石油供应量向下修正，而发展中国家向上修正部分抵消了这一修正。根据略低于预期的2005年第一季度和第二季度前两个月的实际数据，俄罗斯石油生产的全年前景再次被下调；此外，由于5月份报告中讨论的同样原因，2005年下半年的前景看起来越来越消极。据第二位消息人士称，5月份欧佩克原油总产量平均略高于30MB/d

The deteriorating prospects for the Euro-zone dominated economic headlines in recent weeks. Italy is in recession andGermany may see a fall in GDP in the second quarter. The performance of the French economy has also worsened and onlySpain continues to grow at satisfactory rates. Political uncertainty was added to these economic troubles as both the Frenchand Dutch electorates rejected the new European Constitution. The forecast for the Euro-zone growth in 2005 has beenreduced to 1% from 1.1%. 

Growth in the USA and China continues to be strong. Within the USA, the manufacturing sector is seeing some weaknessbut steady growth in consumer spending is leading to growth in services. The growth forecast for 2005 is unchanged at3.4%. The Chinese economy continues to be driven by exports and investment although the pace of growth may bemoderated by rising input costs. In May producer prices rose by nearly 6% and the authorities may take further measures tocool the economy. The 2005 growth forecast for China is unchanged at 8.6%.

  The release of strong first-quarter data for Japan confirmed that domestic demand has begun a solid recovery. Better trendsin employment and domestic incomes have compensated for weak growth in exports. Japan is forecast to grow by 1.7% in2005, up from the previous forecast of 1.4%. The forecast growth rate for the world economy in 2005 is unchanged at 4.1%as the better outlook for Japan is expected to compensate for weakness in Europe. 

The OPEC Reference Basket in May plunged $2.67 or 5.4% to close the month at $46.96/b as the steep contango market andample OPEC crude supported strong stock builds, helping to ease supply concerns. Bullishness revived toward the end of themonth, however, on product fears following a strike at five European refineries. The uptrend continued into June as distillatestock levels in the USA triggered further product supply worries which were supported by an early start to the hurricaneseason in the USA. As a result, the Basket in June rose above the $50/b level for the first time since late April, averaging$50.73 in the week ending 9 June and continued to increase reaching $52.26/b on 15 June. 

The seasonal bullish movement which began early in April has been undermined by a combination of high gasoline stocklevels in different markets, particularly in the USA, and the return of refineries from maintenance along with increasingoutput and slowing demand for gasoline compared with the first five months of last year. As a result, gasoline products havefailed to take the seasonal leadership of the market, even with the onset of the driving season. In sharp contrast to theweakness in gasoline, the distillate market looks surprisingly strong. With the increase of the US refinery output and furtherimprovement of the distillate stocks, this situation may change over the next weeks and ease the pressure on the market. 

OPEC spot chartering fell 1.2 mb/d or 9% to nearly 12.8 mb/d in May, the lowest level in almost a year, with Middle Easterneastbound long-haul fixtures declining by 0.7 mb/d. Sailings from the OPEC area remained stable at 27.1 mb/d, but were up4.3 mb/d from the same period last year. Crude oil freight rates showed mixed trends with the VLCC sector hitting 19-monthlows of WS70s due to a glut in tanker supply, while Suezmax and Aframax improved and were higher than last year, withthe exception of the Indonesia/US West Coast route. Product freight rates continued to decline for the second consecutivemonth due to a diminished activity. 

As we approach the end of the first half of the year, with preliminary global oil demand data for the first quarter pointing to agrowth of nearly 2.5 % y-o-y and a forecast world economic growth rate of 4.1 %, the latest global oil demand forecast callsfor a growth rate of 2.2 % or 1.8 mb/d to a yearly average of 83.9 mb/d. The downward revision to last month’s growthestimate results from slightly lower expected growth in two OECD regions — North America and Western Europe — aswell as downward revisions to projections for Latin America and the Middle East. 

The full year outlook for non-OPEC supply in 2005 remains unchanged from last month’s report. Non-OPEC supply isexpected to average 50.6 mb/d, which represents an increase of 0.8 mb/d over the previous year. Actual data for the first quarterand first two months of the second quarter have led to downward revisions to oil supply in OECD which have been partiallyoffset by upward revisions in Developing Countries. The full year outlook for Russian oil production has been revised downagain based on actual data for the first quarter and first two months of the second quarter of 2005 which came in slightly belowexpectations; in addition, the outlook for the second half of 2005 looks increasingly negative for the same reasons discussed inthe May report. Total OPEC crude output on average slightly exceeded 30.mb/d in May, according to secondary sources, whichrepresents an increase of 97,000 b/d from last month. Year-to-date OPEC production has increased 0.7 mb/d. 

At the end of April 2005, OECD commercial oil stocks rose 13.5 mb, lifting the y-o-y surplus to almost 100 mb. US data forMay showed a further build, increasing by 26.4 mb. Total commercial stocks are approaching the 1,000 mb mark, a total lastseen three years ago. Combined with the SPR close to 700 mb, total oil has never been higher at 1,700 mb. In Europe, totaloil stocks also experienced a build of 10.3 mb, mainly in crude oil inventories, to now stand at 26.3 mb or 2.4% above thesame time last year. However, Japan’s commercial oil stocks moved down by 6.1 mb at the end of April due to the decline incrude oil. This draw puts Japanese inventories slightly lower than the level observed last year at this time. 

World oil demand is expected to average 83.9 mb/d in 2005, whilst non-OPEC supply is expected to average 54.8 mb/d. Thisresults in an average difference (a-b) of 29.2 mb/d for OPEC production, versus a previous expectation of 29.1 mb/d in lastmonth’s report. However, the quarterly distribution has been revised. The demand required from OPEC in the first quarter ofthis year is expected to be 29.3 mb/d, 27.6 mb/d in the second, 29.1 mb/d in the third and 30.6 mb/d in the fourth.