2018年6月石油市场月报(2018)MOMR June 2018(2018)

原油价格变动

今年5月，欧佩克参考篮子（ORB）较上月增长约8.5%，收于74.11美元/桶。今年5月迄今，ORB值较2017年同期增长31.7%，至67.48美元/桶。相比之下，布伦特原油期货价格上涨7.4%，迪拜原油期货价格上涨8.7%，WTI现货价格上涨5.4%，m-o-m原油期货价格上涨。地缘政治紧张局势升级和美国原油期货价格看涨下跌继续支撑着石油市场。然而，本月末，由于有关可能放松产出调整的传言，价格下滑。原油期货方面，ICE布伦特原油期货价格上涨5.24美元/桶，或7.3%，至77.01美元/桶，NYMEX WTI原油期货价格上涨3.66美元，或5.5%，至平均69.98美元/桶，YT-d原油期货价格上涨30.6%，至70.22美元/桶，而YMEX WTI原油期货价格上涨27.7%，至65.09美元/桶，与去年同期相比。5月份，随着美国供应量的增加，洲际布伦特/纽约商品交易所价格价差扩大了1.59美元，至7.02美元/桶。尽管原油期货价格飙升，但投机性净多头头寸收低。迪拜市场结构进一步向滞销转变，布伦特原油市场结构明显缓解，WTI保持不变。欧洲和亚洲的甜味/酸味差异缩小，而美国海湾沿岸的甜味/酸味差异扩大。

世界经济

继2017年增长3.8%后，2018年全球GDP增长预测仍为3.8%。预计2018年美国经济增长率与上月持平，为2.7%，2017年增长2.3%。继2017年增长1.7%后，2018年印度石油公司的增长率下调至1.2%。欧元区2018年经济增长预期仍为2.2%，2017年为2.5%。印度和中国的2018年预测均保持不变，分别为7.3%和6.5%，而2017年的GDP增长率分别为6.3%和6.9%。巴西在2017年增长1.0%之后，2018年的增长率修正为1.9%。继2017年增长1.5%后，2018年俄罗斯国内生产总值增长预期不变，为1.8%。

世界石油需求

2017年世界石油需求增长保持在165万桶/日不变，达到9720万桶/日，与上月报告持平。2018年，尽管经合组织和非经合组织都进行了一些抵消性修订，但预计石油需求增长也保持不变。目前，全球石油需求估计为165万桶/日，平均为9885万桶/日。继经合组织美洲地区的积极修订后，预计经合组织2018年的消费量将增长40万桶/日，比上一份报告高出约02万桶/日。与此同时，非经合组织的石油需求预计将增长127万桶/日，较上月的评估下降0.02万桶/日。尽管中国和其他亚洲国家的石油需求被上调，但这一下调在拉丁美洲和中东地区的抵消作用还不止于此。

世界石油供应

2017年非欧佩克石油供应同比增长88万桶/日，由于四舍五入，较上月的评估略有上升0.01万桶/日。2018年，非欧佩克国家的总供应量增加了13万桶/日，达到59.75万桶/日，同比增长了186万桶/日。经合组织（尤其是美国和加拿大）和经合组织（OECD）、金融服务联盟（FSU）和中国（中国）对2018年第一季度的供应量进行了上调，原因是产出高于预期。然而，这些向上的修正被向下的修正所抵消。欧佩克天然气和非常规液体产量2017年调整为74 tb/d，目前同比增长0.09 mb/d，平均增长623 mb/d。预计2018年欧佩克天然气和非常规液体产量分别增长0.12 mb/d和平均635 mb/d。2018年5月，欧佩克原油产量增加35 tb/d，平均3187 mb/d，根据第二来源。

产品市场和炼油业务

5月份，大西洋盆地的成品油市场表现良好，全线上涨。在美国，国内汽油需求改善，中间馏分油和燃料油市场相对收紧，推动炼油厂利润率超过去年创纪录的高位。在欧洲，产品市场保持了上个月取得的增长，大部分支撑来自桶顶和桶底。5月份创纪录的高企产品价格打压了炼油厂的利润率，可能会阻止进一步上涨。与此同时，受喷气机/科罗塞内德需求放缓和库存水平上升的压力，亚洲产品市场小幅走弱。

油轮市场

5月份，污油油轮市场出现了一些积极的发展，与上月相比，现货运价大部分在多条航线上上涨。平均而言，脏油轮的运费上涨了18%，而清洁油轮的平均运费保持不变。现货价格的上涨是由于活动的加强、吨位清单的收紧以及港口和天气的延误。然而，由于受到高燃料价格的压力，市场回报率仍然较低，这两个行业的税率涨幅只是相对的。

股票变动

4月份的初步数据显示，经合组织商业石油库存总量下降670万桶，达到2811万桶，比最近五年的平均水平低2600万桶，但仍比2014年1月的水平高出2400万桶。原油库存显示略有盈余，为40万桶，而产品库存则比最近五年的平均水平低2600万桶。从远期覆盖天数来看，经合组织商业股4月份下跌至59.1天，比最新的5年平均水平低2.2天。

供需平衡

2017年，预计欧佩克原油需求量为3310万桶/日，较上年同期增加70万桶/日。预计2018年欧佩克原油需求为3270万桶/日，较上年下降30万桶/日。

Crude Oil Price Movements 

In May, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) increased by about 8.5% above the previous month, settling at$74.11/b. Year-to-date in May, the ORB value was 31.7% higher at $67.48/b, compared to the same periodin 2017. In comparison, Dated Brent rose by 7.4%, Dubai by 8.7% and spot WTI by 5.4%, m-o-m. The oilmarket continues to be underpinned by escalating geopolitical tensions and bullish drawdowns in US crudeinventories. However, late in the month, prices slipped on talk of a potential easing of output adjustments.With regard to crude oil futures, ICE Brent was $5.24/b, or 7.3%, higher at $77.01/b, while NYMEX WTIgained $3.66, or 5.5%, to average $69.98/b m-o-m. Y-t-d, ICE Brent is 30.6% higher at $70.22/b, whileNYMEX WTI rose 27.7% to $65.09/b, compared to the same period a year earlier. The ICE Brent/NYMEXWTI spread widened by $1.59 to $7.02/b in May, on increasing US supplies. Despite the surge in crude oilfutures prices, speculative net long positions ended lower. The Dubai market structure moved deeper intobackwardation, while that of Brent eased markedly and WTI remained unchanged. The sweet/sourdifferentials narrowed in Europe and Asia, while in the US Gulf Coast (USGC), the spread widened. 

World Economy

 The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018, following growth of 3.8% in 2017. Expected USgrowth in 2018 is unchanged from the previous month at 2.7%, after growth of 2.3% in 2017. Growth inJapan was revised down to 1.2% in 2018, following growth of 1.7% in 2017. The Euro-zone’s 2018 growthforecast remains at 2.2%, after growth of 2.5% in 2017. Both India’s and China’s 2018 forecasts areunchanged at 7.3% and 6.5%, following 2017 GDP growth of 6.3% and 6.9%, respectively. Growth in Brazilwas revised down to 1.9% in 2018, following growth of 1.0% in 2017. Russia’s GDP growth forecastremained unchanged at 1.8% in 2018, following growth of 1.5% in 2017.

World Oil Demand

 World oil demand growth in 2017 remained unchanged at 1.65 mb/d to stand at 97.20 mb/d, unchanged fromthe previous month’s report. In 2018, projected oil demand growth was also kept unchanged despite someoffsetting revisions in both OECD and non-OECD. Global oil demand is now estimated at 1.65 mb/d y-o-y toaverage 98.85 mb/d. OECD consumption is forecast to grow by 0.40 mb/d in 2018, some 0.02 mb/d higherthan in the previous report, following positive revisions in OECD Americas. Meanwhile, oil demand in thenon-OECD is now projected to grow by 1.27 mb/d, showing a downward revision of 0.02 mb/d from lastmonth’s assessment. While China’s and Other Asia’s oil demand was revised up, this was more than offsetby downward revisions in Latin America and the Middle East. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-OPEC supply growth in 2017 stands at 0.88 mb/d y-o-y, revised up marginally by 0.01 mb/d from lastmonth’s assessment due to rounding. For 2018, total non-OPEC supply was revised up by 0.13 mb/d, to59.75 mb/d, representing y-o-y growth of 1.86 mb/d. Upward revisions were made for 1Q18 in the OECD,particularly the US and Canada, and also in the forecast of 2Q18 in the OECD, FSU and China, due tohigher-than-expected output. However, these upward revisions were offset by downward revisions the samequarters. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids’ production was revised down by 74 tb/d for 2017 to nowshow growth of 0.09 mb/d y-o-y and average 6.23 mb/d. For 2018, OPEC NGLs and non-conventionalliquids are forecast to grow by 0.12 mb/d and average 6.35 mb/d. In May 2018, OPEC crude oil productionincreased by 35 tb/d, to average 31.87 mb/d, according to secondary sources. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Product markets in the Atlantic Basin showed positive performances in May with gains all across the barrel.In the US, improved domestic gasoline demand, along with a relatively tighter middle distillates and fuel oilmarket, drove refinery margins beyond last year’s record-high figures. In Europe, product markets retainedthe gains achieved in the previous month with most of the support stemming from the top and bottom of thebarrel. Record-high product prices witnessed in May weighed on refinery margins and probably preventedfurther upside. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia weakened marginally, pressured by slower jet/kerosenedemand and rising inventory levels.

Tanker Market 

In May, the dirty tanker market showed some positive developments with spot freight rates mostly gainingacross number of routes compared with the previous month. On average, dirty tanker freight rates rose by18% m-o-m while average clean spot freight rates remained flat. The increase in spot rates came on theback of enhanced activities, tightening of the tonnage lists as well as port and weather delays. However, rategains in both sectors were only relative, as market returns remain low, pressured by high bunker prices.

 Stock Movements 

Preliminary data for April shows that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 6.7 mb m-o-m to stand at2,811 mb, which is 26 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 240 mb above January 2014 levels.Crude stocks indicated a slight surplus of 0.4 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 26 mb belowthe latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in April to standat 59.1 days, which is 2.2 days lower than the latest five-year average. 

Balance of Supply and Demand

 In 2017, demand for OPEC crude is estimated to stand at 33.1 mb/d, which is 0.7 mb/d higher than a yearearlier. In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.7 mb/d, a decline of 0.3 mb/d from the previousyear’s level.