2010年5月石油市场月报(2010)MOMR May 2010(2010)

对全球经济复苏的乐观情绪和对石油需求的更高预期支撑了4月份的石油市场。欧佩克参考价格篮子在本月第二个交易日升至81美元/桶上方，为今年1月以来首次，随后呈上升趋势，月末升至84.13美元/桶，为2008年10月初以来的最高水平。按月度计算，该篮子平均价格为82.33美元/桶，涨幅为5.12美元或6.6%。由于担心希腊主权债务危机蔓延风险和美国石油库存高企，5月份石油市场转为熊市。结果，价格在三天内下跌超过10美元，随后略有回升，5月10日升至78.08美元/桶。2010年世界经济增长率保持在3.5%不变。尽管美国、日本和中国显示出令人鼓舞的复苏迹象，但欧元区刚刚设法避免希腊的过度外债危机蔓延到其他经济体。经合组织的增长率保持在1.9%不变，美国的预测从2.6%提高到2.8%，欧元区的预测从0.7%下调到0.6%。预计2010年中国经济增长9.5%，印度增长7.1%。全球经济正在改善，但发达国家主权债务的挑战、中国避免经济过热和失业率持续居高不下的能力需要仔细监测。2009年世界石油需求预测基本保持不变，显示出150万桶/日的萎缩。2010年，全球需求增长预计为90万桶/日，与上个月预测一致。尽管经济复苏显示出势头改善的迹象，但可能影响今年需求增长预期的重要风险依然存在。今年以来，中国一直是推动石油需求增长的主要动力之一，尽管最近汽油和柴油零售价格分别上涨了4.5%和5%，但今年的石油需求增长仍将持续到下半年。2009年，非欧佩克石油供应量估计增加了70万桶/日，此前上调了100桶/日。2010年非欧佩克石油供应量增长预测也上调了30桶/日，达到50万桶/日。调整主要是因为发布了实际生产的最新初步数据。欧佩克天然气和非常规石油2010年的平均产量预计为490万桶/日，比上一年增加了50万桶/日。4月份，欧佩克原油总产量平均为2925万桶/日，比上月增加0.01万桶/日。随着经济增长的改善，产品需求的增加掩盖了产品市场的其他负面发展，包括冰岛火山爆发及其对航空业和喷气/燃料需求的负面影响。这种情况也增强了产品市场人气，提振了除欧洲以外的所有炼油厂的利润率。尽管最近炼油厂的运营和利润率有所改善，但由于持续的产品失衡和大量的轻产品库存，燃油操作向下修正的风险非常高。因此，近期产品市场不太可能为原油市场基本面提供足够的支持。与上月相比，欧佩克4月份的现货供应量下降了16.7%。来自欧佩克维尔的航班略高，抵达美国的航班增长3.3%。4月份，油轮市场经历了混合运动，超大型油轮和苏伊士型油轮的运价上升，而阿芙拉型油轮的运价下降。主要消费者的高进口支持了费率的提高，而吨位供应影响了FRAMax行业。同期，清洁现货运价下降了7.7%，主要是由于维护活动。4月份，美国商业库存增长了2420万桶，主要是由于新增产品增加了1950万桶，而原油库存则增加了470万桶。目前库存比5年平均水平高出约9000万桶。日本3月份的商业石油库存增加了400万桶，扭转了上个月的巨大下降趋势，但仍低于历史正常水平。据估计，2009年欧佩克原油需求量为2900万桶/日，比上一份报告高出约20吨/日。与上一年相比，这仍然意味着每天减少240万桶。2010年，预计欧佩克原油的平均需求量为2880万桶/日，比之前的评估值高出约40 tb/日，比一年前下降约10万桶/日。

Optimism about the global economic recovery and higher oil demand expectations supported the oilmarket in April. The OPEC Reference Basket moved above $81/b in the second trading day of themonth for the first time since January and then followed an upward trend to end the month to reach$84.13/b, the highest level since early October 2008. In monthly terms, the Basket averaged$82.33/b, for a gain of $5.12 or 6.6%. The oil market turned bearish in May amid concerns about thesovereign debt crisis in Greece with contagion risk and high oil inventories in the US. As a result,prices fell more than $10 over three days before recovering slightly to stand at $78.08/b on 10 May. World economic growth is kept unchanged at 3.5% for 2010. While the US, Japan and Chinashowed encouraging signs of a recovery, the Euro-zone has just managed to avoid a spillover of thesovereign debt crisis of Greece to other economies. OECD growth remains unchanged at 1.9%, asthe US forecast was increased to 2.8% from 2.6% and the Euro-zone’s forecast was revised downto 0.6% from 0.7%. China is expected to grow by 9.5% in 2010 and India by 7.1%. The globaleconomy is improving, but the challenges of sovereign debt in the developed countries, the ability ofChina to avoid overheating and persistently high unemployment levels need careful monitoring. World oil demand estimate for 2009 remains broadly unchanged, showing a contraction of1.5 mb/d. In 2010, global demand growth is expected at 0.9 mb/d, in line with the previous month’sforecast. Although the economic recovery shows signs of improving momentum, important risksremain that could impact demand growth expectations for this year. China has been among themain drivers behind oil demand growth so far this year, which should continue for the rest of the yeardespite the recent price increase in its gasoline and diesel retail sales by 4.5% and 5% respectively. Non-OPEC oil supply is estimated to have increased by 0.7 mb/d in 2009, following an upwardrevision of 100 tb/d. The forecast for non-OPEC supply growth in 2010 was also revised 30 tb/dhigher to stand at 0.5 mb/d. The adjustment was mainly due to the release of preliminary up-to-datedata for actual production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are expected to average 4.9 mb/din 2010, an increase of 0.5 mb/d over the previous year. In April, total OPEC crude productionaveraged 29.25 mb/d, an increase of 0.01 mb/d over the previous month. Increased product demand in tandem with improving economic growth has overshadowed otherbearish developments in the product markets, including the volcano eruption in Iceland and itsnegative impacts on the aviation industry and jet/fuel demand. This situation has also reinforcedproduct market sentiment and lifted refining margins across the board, with the exception of Europe.Despite the recent improvement in refinery operations and margins, it appears that due to persistinginter-product imbalances and ample stocks of light products, the risk of a downward correction inrefinery operations is very high. As a result, product markets are not likely to provide sufficientsupport for crude market fundamentals in the near future. OPEC spot fixtures in April declined by 16.7% compared to the previous month. Sailings from OPECwere marginally higher and arrivals in the US gained 3.3%. In April, the tanker market experiencedmixed movement with VLCC and Suezmax rates increasing, while Aframax decreased. Higherimports by major consumers supported the increase in rates, while tonnage availability affected theAframax sector. Clean spot freight rates declined by 7.7% over the same period, mainly due tomaintenance activities.US commercial stocks rose by a considerable 24.2 mb in April driven by the build in productswhich increased by 19.5 mb, while crude stocks rose by 4.7 mb. Inventories now stand at around90 mb above the five-year average. Japan’s commercial oil stocks increased by 4.0 mb in March,reversing the huge decline observed last month, but still remained below the historical norm.Demand for OPEC crude in 2009 is estimated at 29.0 mb/d, around 20 tb/d higher than in theprevious report. This still represents a decline of 2.4 mb/d compared to the previous year. In 2010,demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.8 mb/d, about 40 tb/d more than in the previousassessment and a decline of around 0.1 mb/d from a year ago.