2005年5月石油市场月报(2005)MOMR May 2005(2005)

世界经济的主要增长引擎仍然是美国和中国。3月美国贸易业绩改善，第一季度国内生产总值（GDP）增长预期可能提高至3.5%左右，零售额的强劲增长预示着第二季度的良好开端。中国的第一季度数据证实，GDP增长继续保持在9.5%，与2004年相比没有减速。

欧元区第一季度数据好于预期，因为GDP增长了2%。德国是出口强劲增长的主要经济体。第二季度的前景不容乐观，尤其是制造业。该地区仍依赖出口需求，消费信心仍因失业率居高不下而受到抑制。日本的前景喜忧参半。更高的实际收入水平应该会促进第一季度的消费支出，但出口表现不佳。

美国对2005年经济增长的预测不变，为3.4%，日本的预测也不变，为1.4%。欧元区预测从1.3%下调至1.1%。中国2005年度经济增长率预期已提高到8.6%。2005年世界经济预测增长率保持在4.1%不变。

今年4月，欧佩克的一篮子参考原油价格出现了四个月来的最低涨幅，较上个月上涨56%或1%，收于49.63美元/桶。该篮子原油价格录得本月第一周的最高周平均水平，为52.07美元/桶，部分原因是受投资银行关于油价可能翻番的报告影响，以及对美国夏季驾车季前下游产能限制的担忧。不过，本月其余时间，由于欧佩克供应充足，美国原油库存持续增加，油价总体呈下降趋势，第三周周周平均跌幅低至48.00美元/桶。这一趋势在5月份继续，5月16日，日篮子价格坚定地向45美元/桶移动，至45.47美元/桶。

大西洋盆地的炼油厂停产和亚洲旺盛的需求增强了4月份产品市场的人气，全球炼油厂利润率飙升。然而，最近，美国汽油库存居高不下、美国炼油厂春季检修后恢复正常运营以及东南亚国家产品需求下降，这些因素共同扭转了市场势头，并缓解了产品价格。美国炼油厂向汽油生产模式的转变将进一步增加驾驶季节的汽油库存，这可能会进一步减缓清洁产品的价格。尽管如此，考虑到有限的备用炼油能力和可能发生的炼油中断，价格大幅下滑的可能性似乎不大。

尽管产量持续高企，但由于主要消费国的季节性需求减弱，欧佩克4月份的现货租船量仅小幅增长了10万桶/日，至1420万桶/日。来自欧佩克地区的航运量下降了80万桶/日，至2270万桶/日，中东地区的航运量下降了50万桶/日。由于最近油轮船队的扩张，供应充足，原油运价全线下跌，跌幅在11%至26%之间。亚洲炼油厂维修对运价造成进一步下行压力。产品运价也有所下降，但低于原油运价，下滑幅度在3%至11%之间。

2005年世界石油需求增长率较上个月下降0.08百万桶/日，降至182百万桶/日或2.2%，低于2004年的260百万桶/日或3.3%，总平均值为8390百万桶/日。这次下调主要是由于第一季度的消费低于预期。欧洲和中国的需求下调幅度超过了其他亚洲和金融服务业的上调幅度，导致累计下降26万桶/日。

2005年，非欧佩克国家的平均供应量预计为5060万桶/日，比上一年增加了80万桶/日，因为供应量的增长比上个月的估计减少了19万桶/日。根据第一季度的实际数据，俄罗斯和墨西哥的产量增长预测有所下降，这一预测低于预期。更重要的是，这两个国家的前景在今年剩下的时间里都有所下调。其他非欧佩克成员国，特别是安哥拉、阿塞拜疆、巴西和苏丹的前景依然强劲，与上个月的评估相比又有所增强。据二级消息人士透露，4月份欧佩克原油总产量平均2995万桶/日，较上月增加27.4万桶/日，伊拉克产量略有增加。

截至2005年第一季度末，经合组织商业石油库存为25.87亿桶，比上一季度增加2200万桶，比去年同期增加11900万桶。来自美国的初步数据证实了这一趋势，华硕商业石油库存在4月1日至29日期间显著增加1630万桶或0.58万桶/日，达到97220万桶。16欧元区（欧盟加挪威）的石油库存总量在4月份出现温和下降，下降810万桶或0.27万桶/日，达到109990万桶。

2005年的供需平衡显示，目前世界石油需求平均为8390万桶/日，而非欧佩克石油供应（包括欧佩克天然气和非常规石油）平均为5480万桶/日。这导致欧佩克石油生产的平均差额（a-b）为2920万桶/日，与上个月的预测值2910万桶/天相比。新的平衡主要是对世界石油需求下调了10万桶/日，同时对非欧佩克石油供应下调了19万桶/日。

  The main growth engines of the world economy remain the USA and China. Improved US trade results for Marchindicate that the first quarter GDP growth estimate may be increased to about 3.5% and the strong growth of retail sales inApril indicates a solid start to the second quarter. First quarter data for China confirms that GDP growth continued at9.5%, showing no deceleration from 2004.

  First quarter data from the Euro-zone was better than expected as GDP grew by 2%. Germany was the leading economythanks to strong growth in exports. The outlook for the second quarter is less encouraging, especially for manufacturingsectors. The region remains dependent on export demand and consumer confidence remains depressed by high levels ofunemployment. The outlook for Japan is mixed. Higher levels of real income should boost consumer spending in the firstquarter but the performance of exports has been poor. 

The US growth forecast for 2005 is unchanged at 3.4% and the Japanese forecast is also unchanged at 1.4%. The forecastfor the Euro-zone has been reduced to 1.1% from 1.3%. The 2005 growth rate forecast for China has been increased to8.6%. The forecast growth rate for the world economy in 2005 is unchanged at 4.1%. 

The OPEC Reference Basket in April saw the lowest rise in four months on a gain of 56 or 1% from the previous monthto close at $49.63/b. The Basket recorded the highest weekly average in the first week of the month at $52.07/b partly inreaction to an investment bank report on the possibility of oil prices doubling, as well as concern over downstreamcapacity constraints ahead of the US summer driving season. However, the rest of the month saw a general downwardtrend on the back of ample OPEC supplies and a continued build in US crude oil inventories, with the weekly averagedipping as low as $48.00/b in the third week. This trend continued in May, with the daily Basket price moving firmlytowards $45/b to stand at $45.47/b on 16 May. 

Refinery outages in the Atlantic Basin and robust demand in Asia strengthened sentiment in the product markets in April,and refinery margins surged across the globe. However, more recently, a combination of high US gasoline stocks, theresumption of normal operations by US refiners after spring maintenance and lower product demand from South-EastAsian countries reversed market momentum and eased product prices. The switch in US refinery operations to gasolineproducingmode should further build gasoline inventories for the driving season, which could additionally moderateprices for clean products. Still, a sharp price slide seems unlikely given limited spare refining capacity and possiblerefinery outages. 

Despite sustained high production, OPEC spot chartering rose only slightly in April by 0.1 mb/d to 14.2 mb/d due tolower seasonal demand in the main consuming countries. Sailings from the OPEC area fell by 0.8 mb/d to 22.7 mb/d,with the Middle East contributing 0.5 mb/d. Crude oil freight rates declined along all routes, losing between 11% and26%, on ample availability due to the recent expansion in tanker fleets. Asian refinery maintenance exerted furtherdownward pressure on freight rates. Product freight rates also declined, but less than for crude, slipping between 3%and 11%. 

World oil demand growth for 2005 was revised down by 0.08 mb/d from the previous month to stand at 1.82 mb/d or 2.2%,lower than the 2.60 mb/d or 3.3% experienced in 2004, for a total average of 83.9 mb/d. This downward revision is mainlyattributed to lower than anticipated consumption in the first quarter. The downward revision in European demand as well asthat for China surpassed the upward revision in Other Asia and FSU, leading to a cumulative decline of 0.26 mb/d. 

Non-OPEC supply is now expected to average 50.6 mb/d in 2005, which represents an increase of 0.8 mb/d from theprevious year, as supply growth has been revised down by 0.19 mb/d from the previous month’s estimate. The forecast forRussian and Mexican output growth has been lowered on the basis of actual data for the first quarter, which was less thanexpected. More importantly the outlook for both countries has been revised down for the remainder of the year. The outlookfor other non-OPEC countries, particularly Angola, Azerbaijan, Brazil and Sudan, continues to be strong and remainsunchanged from last month’s assessment. According to secondary sources, total OPEC crude production averaged29.95 mb/d in April, an increase of 274,000 b/d from the previous month, with a moderate increase in Iraqi production. 

At the end of the first quarter of 2005, OECD commercial oil stocks stood at 2,587 mb, an increase of 22 mb over theprevious quarter and 119 mb higher than the same period last year. Preliminary data from the USA confirms this trend, asUS commercial oil stocks observed a significant build of 16.3 mb or 0.58 mb/d to stand at 972.2 mb in the period 1-29 April.Total oil stocks in Eur-16 (EU plus Norway) experienced a moderate draw in April, falling by 8.1 mb or 0.27 mb/d to standat 1,099.9 mb. 

The supply/demand balance for 2005 shows that world oil demand is now expected to average 83.9 mb/d, whilst nonOPECsupply (including OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils) is expected to average 54.8 mb/d. This results in anaverage difference (a-b) of 29.2 mb/d for OPEC production, versus the previous expectation of 29.1 mb/d in last month’sreport. The new balance is primarily the result of a downward revision of 0.1 mb/d to world oil demand, coupled with adownward revision to non-OPEC supply of 0.19 mb/d.