2004年3月石油市场月报(2004)MOMR March 2004(2004)

据估计，2003年世界国内生产总值增长了3.7%，比上个月的估计增长了0.1%。这一小幅增长是由于日本的估计数大幅上调，德国和意大利的估计数略有下调。日本2003年第四季度的数据显示，投资支出和出口增长强劲，个人消费也大幅增长，保持了2003年早些时候的增长。

美国经济的主要问题仍然是就业增长，以及政策制定者为推动劳动力市场而留下的财政弹药所剩无几。2月份非农就业人数仅增加2.1万人，没有特殊因素可以解释这一结果。2月份零售额（不包括汽车）持平，首次显示消费者信心疲弱。今年1月，美国贸易逆差进一步扩大，达到431亿美元。

经合组织地区2004年的预测增长了0.1%，国内生产总值预计增长了3.2%。此次修正完全是由于日本经济增长预期从1.8%上调至2.6%。对中国的预测不变，为8.3%。对中国经济的需求正以更快的速度增长，但通胀上升和产能短缺可能在2004年晚些时候引发问题。这一预测假定中国的增长率在下半年将放缓。对非洲、拉丁美洲、亚洲（不包括日本）和发展中国家整体的预测基本不变。据预测，2004年世界经济将增长4.4%，比上个月的预测高出0.1%。

继2003年第四季度初开始并延续至今年1月的4美元/桶复苏之后，theOPEC参考篮子最终失去了一些阵地。今年2月，该篮子原油价格下跌77美元/桶或2.54%，至29.56美元/桶的平均水平。今年迄今，该篮子原油的平均价格仅比2月底的30美元/桶（29.94美元/桶）低了几美分/桶，与2003年同期相比，2003年3月19日，由于预计伊拉克入侵，原油价格飙升，每桶原油价格正好下跌了1美元/桶。3月初，每周篮子平均价格又上涨了4%或1.26美元，至31.87美元，随后在截至3月11日的一周内，又上涨了38美元，至32.25美元。近期原油价格走强主要取决于非商业广告、地缘政治担忧以及美国汽油市场明显收紧的态势。

除大西洋盆地市场的汽油外，2月份世界三大炼油中心的平均产品价格都有所下降。然而，炼油利润率在健康水平上趋同，主要是受美国和欧洲市场汽油价格下跌的推动，尽管最近马约拉西亚产品价格大幅下跌。

随着原油运价南下和成品油运价飙升，2月份油轮市场呈现出不同的趋势。多数原油油轮板块失去了上个月的势头，特别是苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮的跌幅尤为显著。大多数主要产品航线的吨位供应紧张是产品运价上升趋势背后的主要原因。欧佩克地区现货供应量较上月的35%下降了10%，原因是石油产量略有下降，炼油厂维修导致需求疲软。

2003年世界石油需求估计数经修正后下降了21万桶/日，为78.30万桶/日，比2002年增加了129万桶/日。这主要是由于四季度实际历史表观需求下调所致。2004年世界石油需求预测下调0.08亿桶/日至7975亿桶/日，增量增长下调0.13亿桶/日或145亿桶/日，原因是经济增长上调。另一个区域组的产量预计增长0.57百万桶/日，其次是发展中国家（0.51百万桶/日）和经合组织（OECD）集团（0.37百万桶/日）。

根据第二来源，欧佩克2月份的原油产量估计为2814万桶/日，与1月份的数字几乎没有变化。2003年非欧佩克石油供应量估计为4866万桶/日，比2002年的4776万桶/日高出90万桶/日。2004年非欧佩克石油供应预计将达到5001万桶/日，比2003年的估计增加135万桶/日。2002年和2003年FSU的净出口量估计分别为556万桶/日和655万桶/日，预计2004年将增至720万桶/日。

2004年1月30日至2月28日期间，美国仅限商业的库存继续显示出可观的季节性下降，即1390万桶，每日下降0.46万桶至89660万桶，尽管同比顺差仍保持在3520万桶或4.1%的舒适水平。美国3月12日最新的每周库存数据显示，原油库存进一步增加，而接近去年水平的汽油库存应在驾驶季节到来之前稳步增加。欧盟16国（欧盟加挪威）的石油库存总量扭转了上个月的趋势，减少了1110万桶，或0.38万桶/天，至1060.9万桶，原因是大量使用中间馏分油。尽管如此，同比顺差仍保持在4400万桶或4.3%。日本商业地产总库存扭转了上月下降的格局，下降340万桶，至1793万桶，下降了11万桶，但同比顺差仍保持在1370万桶或8.3%的舒适水平

World GDP is estimated to have grown by 3.7% in 2003, a rise of 0.1% above last month’s estimate. This slightincrease is due to a significant upwards revision of estimates for Japan and slight downwards revisions for Germanyand Italy. The Japanese data for the final quarter of 2003 showed strong growth in investment spending and exports.Personal consumption also experienced significant growth, maintaining the improvements recorded earlier in 2003. 

The major problem in the US economy remains employment growth and the fact that policymakers have littlemonetary or fiscal ammunition left to boost the labour market. The increase in non-farm payrolls in February wasonly 21,000 and there were no special factors to explain such a result. Retail sales (excluding automobiles) were flatin February providing the first indication of weakness in consumer confidence. The US trade deficit widened furtherin January, reaching $43.1 billion.

  The 2004 forecast for the OECD region was increased by 0.1% and GDP is expected to grow by 3.2%. This revisionis entirely due to an upwards adjustment of the Japanese growth forecast from 1.8% to 2.6%. The forecast for Chinais unchanged at 8.3%. Demands on the Chinese economy are growing at a faster rate but rising inflation and shortageof capacity may raise problems later in 2004. This forecast assumes that the rate of growth of China will slow in thesecond half of the year. The forecasts for Africa, Latin America, Asia (excluding Japan) and Developing Countriesas a whole are largely unchanged. The world economy is forecast to grow by 4.4% in 2004, which is 0.1% higherthan last month’s forecast. 

Following the $4/b recovery that started early in the fourth quarter of 2003 and extended to January of this year, theOPEC Reference Basket finally lost some ground. In February the Basket dropped 77/b or 2.54% to average$29.56/b. The year-to-date average, which stood a few cents-per-barrel below the $30/b mark ($29.94/b) at the endof February, was exactly $1/b lower when compared to the same period of 2003 when prices shot upwards on19 March 2003 in anticipation of the invasion of Iraq. In early March, the weekly Basket average soared by another4% or $1.26/b to $31.87/b, followed by another 38/b rise to $32.25/b in the week ending 11 March. The recentstrength in crude oil prices rests mainly on the position of non-commercials, geopolitical concerns and a perceivedtightening in the US gasoline market. 

With the exception of gasoline in the Atlantic basin markets, average product prices fell in February in all threemain world refining centres. Refining margins, however, converged at healthy levels, driven largely by theprevailing strength in gasoline prices in the US and European markets, and despite recent sharp falls in majorAsian product prices. 

The tanker market displayed divergent trends in February, as crude oil freight rates headed south and product freightrates soared skywards. Most of the crude oil tanker sector lost the previous month’s momentum, especially Suezmaxand Aframax where losses were remarkable. Tight tonnage availability on most main product routes was the mainreason behind the upward trend in product freight rates. OPEC area spot fixtures gave up 10% from last month’sgain of 35% on the back of slightly lower oil production and weak demand due to refinery maintenance. 

The world oil demand estimate for 2003 has been revised down by 0.21 mb/d to stand at 78.30 mb/d, an increase of1.29 mb/d from 2002. This is mainly due to the downward revision in the actual historical apparent demand in the FSUin the fourth quarter. The world oil demand forecast for 2004 has been adjusted downward by 0.08 mb/d to 79.75 mb/d,while incremental growth has been revised up by 0.13 mb/d or 1.45 mb/d due to the upward revision in the economicgrowth. The volume growth in the Other Region group is forecast at 0.57 mb/d, followed by Developing Countrieswith 0.51 mb/d and the OECD group with 0.37 mb/d. 

OPEC crude oil production in February, based on secondary sources, is estimated at 28.14 mb/d, almost unchangedfrom the January figure. Non-OPEC oil supply for 2003 is estimated at 48.66 mb/d, which is 0.90 mb/d over the47.76 mb/d estimated for 2002. Non-OPEC supply in 2004 is expected to reach 50.01 mb/d, an increase of 1.35 mb/dover the 2003 estimate. Net FSU exports for 2002 and 2003 are estimated at 5.56 mb/d and 6.55 mb/d respectivelyand are expected to rise to 7.20 mb/d in 2004. 

US commercial onland stocks continued to show a considerable seasonal draw of 13.9 mb at a rate of 0.46 mb/d to896.6 mb during the period 30 January–28 February 2004, although the y-o-y surplus remained at a comfortable levelof 35.2 mb or 4.1%. Latest US weekly stock data of 12 March shows a further build in crude oil inventories, whilegasoline stocks, which are close to last year’s level, should increase steadily ahead of the driving season. Total oilstocks in EU-16 (EU plus Norway) reversed the trend observed last month, decreasing by 11.1 mb or 0.38 mb/d to1,060.9 mb, due to a large draw on middle distillates. Despite this considerable draw, the y-o-y surplus remained at44.0 mb or 4.3%. Total commercial onland stocks in Japan reversed the previous month’s pattern decreasing by 3.4 mbor 0.11 mb to 179.3 mb, but the y-o-y surplus remained at a comfortable level of 13.7 mb or 8.3%