2010年3月石油市场月报(2010)MOMR March 2010(2010)

石油输出国组织（OPEC）的一篮子参考原油价格下跌3.02美元/桶，跌幅4%，至2月份的72.99美元/桶。这主要归因于对欧元区（尤其是希腊）过度外债问题引发的经济复苏的日益担忧。然而，最近市场情绪发生了变化，经济数据更加乐观，股市上涨，这也为原油价格提供了支撑。在这些事态发展之后，欧佩克的参考价格在3月8日升至77.86美元/桶，3月9日降至77.38美元/桶。

继2009年世界经济增长0.9%后，2010年世界经济增长预期仍保持在3.4%不变。对一些经济体进行了小幅修订。在经合组织（OECD）中，美国略微下调至2.4%，日本上调至1.3%。在发达国家中，中国被修正为9.3%。全球经济仍主要由政府主导的刺激措施支撑。对于几乎所有经合组织地区的公共债务水平、全球创纪录的高失业率以及中国避免经济过热的能力，人们仍然感到担忧

2010年，世界石油需求预计将增长90万桶/日，前一年则萎缩140万桶/日。这意味着从以前的评估向上修订了0.1 mb/d。石油需求一直高度依赖于全球经济的发展速度。预计经合组织的需求仍将保持负增长，约为15万桶/日，而受中国和中东地区的推动，经合组织的需求预计将增长10万桶/日。

2010年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应预计将增加40万桶/日，前一年增长60万桶/日。2010年的数字比上一次评估上升了0.1 mb/DF，这主要是由于对处理否定的估计数以及各种历史数据更新的修订。预计2010年欧佩克天然气和非常规石油的平均日产量为490万桶，比上一年增加了50万桶。二级消息人士称，今年2月，欧佩克原油产量增加192tb/d，平均为2936mb/d。

随着法国炼油厂罢工和原油价格下跌，持续的寒冷天气为2月份的炼油利润率提供了支撑。季节性的炼油厂周转和持续的自主减产也促进了产品市场的积极发展。随着冬季即将结束，主要产品缺乏旺盛的需求，预计近期产品市场人气不会明显好转。这种情况可能会鼓励炼油厂继续实行低产量政策，并对原油市场基本面施加压力。

2月份，油轮市场走弱，所有航线的现货运价都在下降。这项工作得到了各种假期、炼油厂维护和减少延误的支持。运营固定资产减少了160万桶/日，平均为111万桶/日，相当于出口固定资产总额的近三分之二。据初步估计，欧佩克的航行量增加了43万桶/日，达到23.30万桶/日。

2月份美国商业石油库存基本保持不变。原油的增加被产品的减少所抵消，使美国商业库存比季节正常水平高出7300万桶。今年1月，日本商业石油库存增加270万桶，但仍低于5年平均水平1500万桶。2月份的初步迹象显示，增量和产品之间存在差距。

据估计，2009年欧佩克原油需求为2900万桶/日，比上一份报告高出约20万桶/日。与上一年相比，这一数字仍下降了约220万桶/日。2010年，预计欧佩克原油需求平均为2890万桶/日，比上一次评估高出约20万桶/日，比上年同期下降4万桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket fell by $3.02/b or 4% to reach to $72.99/b in February. Thedecline was mainly attributed to growing concern about the economic recovery triggered bysovereign debt issues in the Euro-zone, particularly in Greece. However, market sentimentchanged recently amid more positive economic data and rising equities, which provide supportfor crude prices as well. Following these developments, the OPEC Reference Basket rose to$77.86/b on 8 March before settling down to $77.38/b on 9 March. 

The forecast for the world economy remains unchanged at 3.4% growth for 2010 following acontraction of 0.9% in 2009. Minor revisions were carried out for some economies. In the OECD,the US has been revised down slightly to 2.4% and Japan adjusted higher to 1.3%. In thedeveloping countries, China was revised up to 9.3%. The global economy continues to bemostly supported by the governmental-led stimulus. Concerns remain regarding the level ofpublic debt in almost all OECD regions, record-high unemployment levels across the globe andthe ability of China to avoid an overheating 

World oil demand is expected to grow by 0.9 mb/d in 2010, following a contraction of 1.4 mb/din the previous year. This represents an upward revision of 0.1 mb/d from the previousassessment. Oil demand has been highly dependent upon the pace of the global economicrecovery. OECD demand is still expected to remain at negative growth around 0.15 mb/d, whilenon-OECD demand is projected to grow by 1.0 mb/d, driven by China and the Middle Eastregion. 

Non-OPEC oil supply is projected to increase by 0.4 mb/d in 2010, following growth of0.6 mb/d in the previous year. The 2010 figure represents an upward adjustment of 0.1 mb/dfrom the previous assessment, mainly due to revisions to the estimations for processing gainsas well as various historical data updates. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are expectedto average 4.9 mb/d in 2010, an increase of 0.5 mb/d over the previous year. In February,OPEC crude oil production rose by 192 tb/d to average 29.36 mb/d, according to secondarysources. 

Continuation of the cold weather along with refinery strike in France and lower crude pricesprovided support for refining margins in February. Seasonal refinery turnaround andcontinuation of discretionary run cuts have also contributed to positive developments in theproduct markets. With the approaching end of winter season and lack of robust demand formajor products, product market sentiment is not expected to improve significantly in the nearfuture. This situation may encourage refineries to continue their low run policy and exertpressure on crude market fundamentals. 

In February, the tanker market weakened, with spot freight rates decreasing on all routes. Thedecline was backed by various holidays, refinery maintenance and reduction of delays. OPECfixtures decreased by 1.6 mb/d to average 11.1 mb/d, which correspond to almost two thirds oftotal export fixtures. OPEC sailing increased by 0.43 mb/d to 23.30 mb/d, according topreliminary estimates. 

US commercial oil inventories remained broadly unchanged in February. A build in crude wasoffset by the draw in products, leaving US commercial inventories at 73 mb above the seasonalnorm. In January, commercial oil inventories in Japan rose by 2.7 mb, but remained 15 mbbelow the five-year average. Preliminary indications for February shows a draw divided betweencrude and products. 

The demand for OPEC crude in 2009 is estimated at 29.0 mb/d, around 0.2 mb/d higher thanin the previous report. This still represents a decline of around 2.2 mb/d compared to theprevious year. In 2010, the demand from OPEC crude is expected to average 28.9 mb/d, around0.2 mb/d higher than in the previous assessment and a decline of 40,000 b/d from a year earlier.