2011年11月石油市场月报(2011)MOMR November 2011(2011)

10月的第一周，欧佩克的一篮子参考指数下跌至100美元以下。然而，到本月中旬，随着解决欧债危机的希望的股票市场发展以及美国和中国的支持性经济数据，欧佩克的走势出现逆转。按月度计算，欧佩克参考价格平均为106.32美元/桶，降幅为5.30美元。在原油期货市场上，纽约商品交易所（Nymex）WTI的前一个月合约上涨82美元，至10月份的平均价格为86.43美元/桶，而ICE布伦特则下跌1.12美元，至平均价格为108.79美元/桶，欧佩克的参考数据为113.79美元/桶。2011年世界经济增长预测保持在3.6%不变，2012年全球经济增长预测从3.7%下调至3.6%。2011年和2012年，美国经济增长率分别为1.6%和1.8%。虽然欧元区今年的增长预期仍为1.6%，但明年的增长预期已从之前的0.8%下调至0.7%。同样，尽管日本今年的预测仍保持在-0.8%不变，但2012年的预测已从之前的2.4%下调至2.2%。发展中国家的增长水平仍然很高。中国2011年和2012年分别保持在9.0%和8.5%不变。根据上一份报告，印度预计2011年和2012年的石油需求增长率均为7.6%。2011年世界石油需求增长率预计为90万桶/日，与上一份报告持平。尽管进入了冬季，但由于经济增长势头放缓，预计经合组织的石油需求将进一步萎缩，特别是在欧盟。此外，美国汽油需求在过去四个月一直在下降，反映出经济低迷。2012年全球石油需求增长预测也保持在120万桶/日不变。但是，由于经合组织经济体面临的挑战，未来一年世界经济前景的不确定性有所增加。预计2011年非欧佩克石油供应将增加20万桶/日，表示较上一份报告向下修订了约140 tb/d。2012年，非欧佩克石油供应预计将增长80万桶/日，与之前的评估一致。巴西、加拿大、哥伦比亚、美国、加纳和俄国有望成为明年经济增长的主要贡献者，而挪威、英国和墨西哥有望经历最大的衰退。据估计，2012年，欧佩克天然气和非常规石油的平均产量为570万桶/日，比今年增长了360吨/日。10月，欧佩克的平均日产量为2989万桶，较上月略有增加。10月，产品市场表现喜忧参半。由于石化行业石脑油需求疲软，以及汽油消费量低于去年水平，轻质馏分油继续失地。由于强劲的需求和紧缩的市场，使得healthyside的利润率保持在较高水平，全球中间馏分油和燃料油的蓬勃复苏抵消了这一点。在美国，每周数据显示，中间馏分油需求达到两年来的最高水平，超过400万桶/日。展望未来，随着冬季的开始，预计中间馏分油需求将继续支撑产品市场。由于中东原油需求增加，欧佩克10月份的现货供应量增加了5%，平均为1180万桶/日。欧佩克10月份的出海量几乎稳定在2250万桶/日，较上月减少了一个百分点。由于季节性需求和博斯普鲁斯海峡的延误，苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮的原油现货运价出现强劲增长。苏伊士西部地区的活动是清洁现货运价上涨的幕后黑手，而苏伊士东部地区的运价则继续疲软。10月份，美国商业石油库存连续第二个月下降，下降了980万桶。这只归因于产品库存下降1310万桶，而原油库存上升320万桶。尽管如此，美国商业库存仍大致与五年平均水平持平。在日本，9月份最新月度数据显示，商业石油库存增加了690万桶，受原油和成品油库存分别增加240万桶和450万桶的推动，日本的商业库存略低于季节性标准。2011年，欧佩克原油需求量较上一次评估增加了10万桶/日，达到30万桶/日，对欧佩克原油的需求比上一年高出30万桶/日。2012年，预计欧佩克原油需求平均为3000万桶/日，比上一份报告高出约10万桶/日，与今年持平。

 The OPEC Reference Basket decreased in the first week of October to below the $100 mark.However, by mid-month, it had reversed course following developments in equity markets on hopesfor a solution to the European debt crisis and supportive economic data in the US and China. Inmonthly terms, the OPEC Reference Basket averaged $106.32/b, representing a decline of $5.30.On the crude oil futures market, the Nymex WTI front-month contract rose 82 to average $86.43/bin October, while ICE Brent lost $1.12 to average $108.79/b. On 8 November, the OPEC ReferenceBasket stood at $113.79/b. The forecast for world economic growth in 2011 remains unchanged at 3.6%, while the forecastfor global growth in 2012 has been revised down from 3.7% to 3.6%. US growth remains unchangedat 1.6% for 2011 and 1.8% for 2012. While growth expectations in the Euro-zone remain at 1.6% forthis year, the forecast for next year has been revised down to 0.7% from 0.8% previously. Similarly,while the forecast for Japan for this year remains unchanged at minus 0.8%, the forecast for 2012has been revised down to 2.2% from 2.4% previously. Growth levels in the developing countriesremain high. China remains unchanged at 9.0% for 2011 and 8.5% for 2012. India is forecast to seegrowth of 7.6% in both 2011 and 2012, in line with the previous report. World oil demand growth in 2011 is forecast at 0.9 mb/d, unchanged from the previous report.Despite the emerging winter season, OECD oil demand is expected to see a further contraction as aresult of slowing economic momentum, particularly in the EU. Moreover, US gasoline demand hasbeen on the decline for the past four months reflecting the sluggish economy. The forecast for globaloil demand growth in 2012 also remains unchanged at 1.2 mb/d. However, uncertainties in the worldeconomic outlook for the coming year have increased due to the challenges facing the OECDeconomies.Non-OPEC supply in 2011 is forecast to increase by 0.2 mb/d, representing a downward revision ofaround 140 tb/d from the previous report. In 2012, non-OPEC supply is forecast to grow by0.8 mb/d, in line with the previous assessment. Brazil, Canada, Colombia, the US, Ghana, andRussia are expected to be the main contributors to next year’s growth, while Norway, UK, andMexico are anticipated to experience the largest declines. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oilsare estimated to average 5.7 mb/d in 2012, indicating growth of 360 tb/d over the current year. InOctober, OPEC production averaged 29.89 mb/d, a minor increase over the previous month.Product markets showed mix performance in October. Light distillates continued to lose grounddue to weak naphtha demand in the petrochemical industry and gasoline consumption remainedbelow year-ago levels. This was offset by a vibrant recovery in middle distillates and fuel oil acrossthe globe, on the back of strong demand and a tighter market which kept margins on the healthyside. In the US, weekly data showed middle distillate demand reaching a two-year high of more than4 mb/d. Looking ahead, with the start of the winter season, middle distillate demand is expected tocontinue to support product markets. OPEC spot fixtures increased by 5% in October to average 11.8 mb/d on the back of increasedAsian demand for Middle East crudes. OPEC sailings were nearly steady in October at 22.5 mb/d, aminor decrease from the previous month. Crude oil spot freight rates registered strong growthbacked by Suezmax and Aframax as result of seasonal demand and delays in the Bosporus. Westof Suez activities were behind the increase in clean spot freight rates, while East of Suez ratesremained weak. US commercial oil inventories fell for the second consecutive month in October, down 9.8 mb. Thedrop was attributed solely to product stocks which fell 13.1 mb, while crude inventories rose 3.2 mb.Despite the draw, US commercial stocks remain broadly in line with the five-year average. In Japan,the most recent monthly data for September shows that commercial oil inventories rose by 6.9 mb,driven by a build in crude and products which increased by 2.4 mb and 4.5 mb respectively.Commercial inventories in Japan stood slightly below their seasonal norm.Demand for OPEC crude in 2011 has been revised up by 0.1 mb/d from the previous assessmentto stand at 30.0 mb/d. At this level, the demand for OPEC crude is 0.3 mb/d above the previousyear. In 2012, demand for OPEC crude is projected to average 30.0 mb/d, about 0.1 mb/d higherthan in the previous report and unchanged from the current year.