2005年9月石油市场月报(2005)MOMR September 2005(2005)

卡特里娜飓风对世界经济的影响将通过美国经济活动的减少和全球石油产品价格的上涨来体现。2005年对美国经济增长率的直接影响预计将减少约0.2%，尽管明年将有大量的重建支出，这将促进东南部的增长。美国2005年GDP增长预测已降至3.4%。尽管重建支出增加，但由于利率和通胀对房地产市场和消费者支出的影响，预计2006年美国经济增长率将下降3%。在卡特里娜飓风之前，高油价似乎已经开始影响一些亚洲经济体。那些补贴燃油价格的国家面临着不断上升的财政赤字，一些政府已经宣布了削减补贴或提高零售价格的计划，这将降低消费能力和亚太地区的增长预测。亚太地区的最新预测已降至2006年的3.9%。此外，这些国家还可能受到2006年美国和中国经济增长放缓的影响。第二季度数据证实，日本经济运行良好。据预测，日本在2005年的经济增长率为1.7%，这一预测可能会被修正。预计2006年将进一步稳定增长1.7%。预计欧元区2005年将增长1.1%。尽管预测的1.5%的增长率仍低于趋势，但预计2006年会有所改善。尽管自澳大利亚和加拿大等大宗商品生产国的预测有所增加以来，美国的调整有所下降，但2005年世界经济的估计增长率仍保持在4.1%不变。预计2006年世界经济增长率将下降3.9%，主要是由于发展中国家的经济减速。8月份，欧佩克一篮子原油价格在经历了一系列200万桶/日的炼油厂停产后的第一周上涨了5%。北海的一个石油生产设施意外关闭以及厄瓜多尔的罢工导致原油产量停止，进一步推动了价格上涨的趋势。然而，飓风卡特丽娜则是通过破坏墨西哥湾炼油能力和上游生产量来达到最大水平的。8月份的月平均收盘价为57.82美元/桶，上涨4.69美元，涨幅近9%。尽管如此，国际能源机构成员国的紧急反应以及欧佩克对其承诺满足任何供应短缺的承诺帮助克服了对原油供应短缺的担忧。因此，油价从9月1日的最高水平61.37美元/桶下跌9%，至9月14日的56.28美元/桶。过去几周，产品市场经历了两个阶段。在第一阶段，大西洋盆地的汽油库存一直很低，美国对汽油的需求也很高，而在亚洲，由于中国、台湾和印度的出口减少，市场对中间馏分油的需求相对较低，对汽油的需求也较有希望，产品信心大幅上升，各种产品价格，特别是汽油价格大幅上涨。飓风的初步影响完全或部分影响了美国约3百万桶/日的炼油能力。目前，约2百万桶/日的炼油能力已恢复正常运行，其余的0.9百万桶/日预计将离线数周，甚至数月。这种情况将进一步收紧炼油行业，该行业已经遭受了产能短缺的困扰，并将在未来几个月内支撑原油和产品价格。欧佩克的现货租船总量仍接近上个月的水平，为13.4百万/天。中东的租船量下降了0.3百万/天，相应地，西行的租船量下降了约0.5百万/天，东行的租船量增长了0.1百万/天。欧佩克地区的租船量连续第二个月增加到2530百万/天，其中中东占了25.3百万/天总的增长。由于可用吨位过剩，油轮市场疲软，除印度尼西亚/美国东海岸和地中海/西北欧航线外，大多数航线的运价下降。成品油船市场走势喜忧参半，东部地区运价连续第二个月上涨，西部地区则大幅下滑。2005年世界石油总需求估计数较上个月的预测有所下降，以反映上半年的疲软需求增长、运输燃料的创纪录泵送价格、负零售利润以及补贴政策的变化。因此，2005年世界石油总需求预计将增长140万桶/日或1.7%，达到平均8350万桶/日。2006年，根据世界经济增长的健康率估计，石油需求预计将增长150万桶/日或1.8%，达到年均8500万桶/日。2005年非欧佩克国家的石油产量预计将达到平均5040万桶/日，达到年均8500万桶/日比上一年增加60万桶/日，比上个月的数字下降了10万桶/日。按季度计算，第二季度、第三季度和第四季度的产量分别减少了47 tb/d、257 tb/d和173 tb/d。2005年第三季度和第四季度的调整中，大部分是对美国产量的修正，但考虑到卡特里娜飓风后美国产量恢复的不确定性，这一预测可能在未来几个月内再次修正。2006，非欧佩克石油产量预计平均51.5 Mb/d，比2005增加约1 Mb/d，而包括非常规油的OPEC NGLS预计将增加0.3Mb/d。8月份，欧佩克产量平均为30.2 Mb/d，保持上个月的高水平。2005年7月底，经合组织的股票继续保持上涨趋势，比上个月增加了2500万股，比去年同期增加了约1亿股。这相当于一个舒适的水平54天的远期封面。在7月29日至9月2日期间，美国商业石油库存减少了1190万桶，其中汽油是造成这一损失的主要原因。截至9月9日当周的最新信息显示，原油和中间馏分油的库存进一步减少，而汽油库存较普遍预期增加190万桶。8月份，16国（欧盟加挪威）的石油库存总量略微下降140万桶，至11244万桶。这一小幅下跌来自原油库存，原油库存略有下降，而产品库存继续上升，但汽油库存略有下降。7月份，日本商业石油库存总量恢复了上月的跌幅，增加490万桶，达到18670万桶。石油供需平衡有所调整，导致2005年第四季度以及2005年和2006年全年对欧佩克原油的需求略有下降。预计2005年欧佩克原油需求为2890万桶/日，较2004年增加60万桶/日，但略低于此前预计的290万桶/日。按季度计算，欧佩克原油需求分别为2870万桶/日和3030万桶/日。2006年，欧佩克原油的平均需求预计为2900万桶/日，比2005年增加10万桶/日。

The impact of Hurricane Katrina on the world economy will be felt through the reduction in the economic activity of theUSA and the rise in the global price of petroleum products. The direct effect on the growth rate of the US economy in 2005is expected to be a reduction of about 0.2% although next year will see substantial spending on rebuilding which will boostgrowth in the South East. The US GDP growth forecast for 2005 has been reduced to 3.4%. Despite higher expenditures onreconstruction, US growth is expected to be lower at 3% in 2006 as a result of the impact of higher interest rates and inflationon the housing market and consumer spending. Prior to Hurricane Katrina, high gasoline prices appeared to have started to impact some Asian economies. Those countrieswhich subsidize fuel prices face rising fiscal deficits and a number of governments have announced plans to reduce subsidiesor increase retail prices, which will reduce consumer spending power and the growth forecast for the Asia Pacific region.The latest forecast for the Asia Pacific region has been reduced to 3.9% for 2006. Additionally, these countries may also beaffected by slower growth in the USA and China in 2006. Second quarter data confirmed that the Japanese economy is performing very well. Japan is forecast to grow by 1.7% in2005 and this forecast will probably be revised up. Further steady growth of 1.7% is expected in 2006. The Euro-zone isexpected to grow by 1.1% in 2005. An improvement is expected in 2006 although the forecast growth rate of 1.5% remainsbelow trend. The estimated growth rate for the world economy in 2005 is unchanged at 4.1% despite the downward USadjustment since projections for commodity producers such as Australia and Canada have been increased. Lower worldgrowth of 3.9% is forecast for 2006 mainly as a result of deceleration in developing countries. The price of the OPEC Reference Basket jumped 5% in the first week in August following a series of refinery outages ofnearly 2 mb/d. The upward trend was furthered by the unplanned shut down of an oil production facility in the North Sea aswell as a strike in Ecuador which halted crude oil output. However, Hurricane Katrina topped it all by disrupting asignificant volume of refining capacity and upstream production in the Gulf of Mexico. The August monthly average closedat $57.82/b for a gain of $4.69 or almost 9%. Nevertheless, the emergency response from IEA member countries as well asassurances from OPEC of its commitment to meet any supply shortfall have helped to overcome fears of a crude supplyshortage. Consequently, the oil price dropped 9% from its highest level of $61.37/b on 1 September to $56.28/b on14 September. Product markets have undergone two phases over the last couple of weeks. In the first phase, gasoline stocks in the AtlanticBasin were running low and demand for gasoline in the USA was high, while in Asia the market looked relativelyoverbalanced for middle distillates and more promising for gasoline due to lower exports from China, Taiwan and India.During phase two, which followed the impact of Hurricane Katrina, product sentiment saw significant gains and variousproduct prices, particularly gasoline, rose sharply. The initial impact of the hurricane fully or partially affected the operationsof about 3 mb/d of refining capacity in the USA. Currently, some 2 mb/d of this capacity have returned to normal operations,while the remaining 0.9 mb/d is expected to be offline for weeks, if not months. This situation will tighten the refiningindustry further, which has already suffered from shortage of capacity and should support crude and product prices over thenext few months. OPEC total spot chartering remained close to the previous month’s level at 13.4 m/d. Middle East fixtures dropped by0.3 mb/d, corresponding to a decline of around 0.5 mb/d in westbound fixtures and a growth of 0.1 mb/d in eastbound.Sailings from the OPEC area increased for the second consecutive month to 25.3 mb/d, with Middle East accountingfor the total growth. Due to a surplus of available tonnage, the tanker market weakened with freight rates declining onmost routes, except on the Indonesia/US East Coast and Mediterranean/North-West Europe routes. The product tankermarket saw mixed trends, with freight rates continuing to improve for the second month in the east and slidingsignificantly in the west. Estimated total world oil demand in 2005 has been revised down from last month’s projection to reflect weak apparentdemand growth in the first half of the year, record pump prices for transportation fuels, and negative retail margins aswell as the change in subsidy policies. Thus, total world oil demand in 2005 is projected to grow by 1.4 mb/d or 1.7%to average 83.5 mb/d. As for the year 2006 and based on the estimated healthy rate of world economic expansion, oildemand is projected to rise by 1.5 mb/d or 1.8% to an annual average of 85.0 mb/d. Non-OPEC production in 2005 is expected to average 50.4 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.6 mb/d over theprevious year, following a downward revision of 0.1 mb/d to last month’s figures. On a quarterly basis, production forthe second, third, and fourth quarters has been revised down by 47 tb/d, 257 tb/d and 173 tb/d respectively. Revisionsto US production account for the bulk of the adjustments in the third and fourth quarters of 2005, but given theuncertainties related to the recovery of US production post Hurricane Katrina, this forecast is likely to be revised againin the coming months. For 2006, non-OPEC oil production is expected to average 51.5 mb/d, an increase ofapproximately 1 mb/d over 2005, while OPEC NGLs including non-conventional oils are expected to increase0.3 mb/d. In August, OPEC production average 30.2 mb/d, maintaining the high level of the previous month. At the end of July 2005, OECD stocks continued their upward trend, rising 25 mb over the previous month and around100 mb over the same time last year. This corresponded to a comfortable level of 54 day of forward cover. During theperiod 29 July-2 September, US commercial oil stocks witnessed a draw of 11.9 mb with gasoline being the maincontribute to this loss. The latest information for the week ending 9 September shows a further stock withdraw in crudeand middle distillates, while gasoline stocks saw an increase of 1.9 mb against general expectations. Total oil stocks inEur-16 (EU plus Norway) in August declined a slight 1.4 mb to stand at 1,124.4 mb. This minor draw came from crudeoil stocks which decreased moderately while product inventories continued to head up except for gasoline which moveddown marginally. Total commercial oil stocks in Japan regained the previous month’s losses in July, building by 4.9 mbto stand at 186.7 mb. The oil supply/demand balance has been revised leading to slightly lower requirements for OPEC crude in the fourthquarter of 2005, and for the whole of 2005 and 2006. The demand for OPEC crude in 2005 (a-b) is forecast at28.9 mb/d, an increase of 0.6 mb/d from 2004, but slightly lower than the 29.0 mb/d projected earlier. On a quarterlybasis, the demand for OPEC crude is estimated at 28.7 mb/d and 30.3 mb/d for the third and fourth quartersrespectively. For 2006, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 29.0 mb/d, an increase of 100,000 b/d from2005.