2013年3月石油市场月报(2013)MOMR March 2013(2013)

今年2月，欧佩克参考价格篮子达到112.75美元/桶，较上月上涨3.47美元。所有篮子组成部分的价值都有所改善，特别是委内瑞拉的梅雷。受积极的经济情绪、紧靠美国汽油市场、产量问题以及2013年全球石油需求增长预期的刺激，2月份原油期货价格继续走强。2月份，ICE布伦特原油期货价格上涨3.75美元，至116.07美元/桶。纽约商品交易所（Nymex）的WTI期货价格有所改善，尽管微幅上涨50美元，至平均95.32美元/桶。价格上涨的同时，管理资金净多头头寸激增，这在去年的讲话范围内。然而，接近月底，由于全球经济的健康，乐观情绪开始减弱。3月11日，篮子价格为106.96美元/桶。

据预测，2013年世界经济增长率为3.2%，2012年为3.0%，与上一份报告持平。在美国，实施的预算削减已经触发了2013年经济增长从1.8%调整为1.7%。日本已从0.7%上调至0.8%，主要原因是出口。欧元区的挑战仍在继续，增长率已从0.1%下调至0.2%。中国继续受益于全球贸易的反弹，预计2013年将增长8.1%，而印度已从2012年的5.0%增长率下调至6.0%。最近，全球经济出现了温和的复苏，但许多主要是财政问题可能会影响未来几个月的经济增长。

2012年世界石油需求增长率与上月相比几乎保持在80万桶/日的水平，尽管由于实际数据已可获得，第四季度的增长率已下调了10万桶/日。2013年，世界石油需求增长率保持在80万桶/日，与之前的评估持平。这一增长的很大一部分来自中国，其次是中东、其他亚洲和拉丁美洲。相比之下，经合组织的需求预计将进一步下降，但比上一年有所下降。然而，目前的预测预见到了一些潜在的下行风险。

2013年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应预计将增加100万桶/日，前一年增长60万桶/日。2013个非OPEC总供给代表上个月的0.1 Mb/dD的上调，主要是由于对美国、加拿大、墨西哥、叙利亚和苏丹的预测的修正，以及一些国家的供应概况的变化，除了历史数据的更新。预计2013年，欧佩克天然气和非常规石油的平均日产量为600万桶，比上一年增加20万桶，与上一份报告持平。此外，根据第二来源，欧佩克原油总产量增加了74tb/d，平均每天增加3031万桶。

2月份产品市场继续上行。在成品油市场人气趋紧的背景下，油价上涨变得更加乐观，由于油价中间出现健康裂缝，大西洋盆地的汽油库存下降。此外，在强劲的区域需求和对该地区供应趋紧的预期支持下，inAsia炼油厂利润率继续回升。

在油轮市场，2月份现货运价涨跌互现。超大型油轮和苏伊士型油轮的即期运价下降，而Afraxmax运价上升。吨位供应、较低的活动和远东的假期是导致即期运价下降的主要因素。清洁油轮的运费在苏伊士以东下降，而在苏伊士以西略有上升。今年2月，欧佩克的观测点减少，同时欧佩克也开始航行。

经合组织（OECD）1月份商业石油库存增加310万桶，与五年平均水平相比略有赤字。原油比季节平均水平高出50兆桶，而成品油则显示出几乎相同的产量。从远期覆盖天数来看，经合组织商业股下跌至58.7天，比五年平均水平高出一天半。2月份，美国商业股下跌1700万股，但与季节平均水平相比，出现了4500万股的盈余。这一下降归因于产品，因为原油显示增长。

2012年对欧佩克原油的需求与上一次评估持平，为3010万桶/日，与上一年相比下降了10万桶/日。2013年，预计所需石油产量平均为2970万桶/日，较去年下降了40万桶/日，较上一份报告向下调整了10万桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket reached $112.75/b in February, a gain of $3.47 over the previousmonth. All Basket component values improved, particularly Venezuela’s Merey. Crude futuresretained strength in February spurred in the first half of the month by positive economic sentiment, abullish US gasoline market, output glitches, and expectations of higher global oil demand growth in2013. The ICE Brent front-month increased by $3.75 in February to $116.07/b. Nymex WTI futuresalso improved, although by a marginal 50 to average $95.32/b. The rise in prices has beenaccompanied by a surge in managed money net-long positions, which were within sight of last year’speak. However, toward the end of the month, the optimistic mood began to erode due to concernsover the health of the global economy. On 11 March, the Basket stood at $106.96/b. 

World economic growth is forecast at 3.2% for 2013 and at 3.0% for 2012, unchanged from theprevious report. In the US, implemented budget cuts have triggered a revision in 2013 growth to1.7% from 1.8%. Japan has been revised up to 0.8% from 0.7%, amid some momentum mainly dueto exports. The Euro-zone’s challenges continue and growth has been revised down to a contractionof 0.2% from growth of 0.1%. China continues to benefit from rebounding global trade and isforecast to grow by 8.1% in 2013, while India has been revised lower to 6.0% from 6.1%, a reboundfrom 5.0% growth in 2012. A tender recovery in the global economy has been visible lately, butmany mostly fiscal issues could impact growth in either direction over the coming months. 

World oil demand growth in 2012 remains almost unchanged at 0.8 mb/d from the previous month,although the fourth quarter has been revised down by 0.1 mb/d as actual data has becomeavailable. For 2013, world oil demand growth remains at 0.8 mb/d, steady from the previousassessment. The large portion of this growth is seen coming from China, followed by the MiddleEast, Other Asia, and Latin America. In contrast, OECD demand is expected to fall further, but byless than in the previous year. However, the current forecast foresees a number of potentialdownward risks. 

Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to increase by 1.0 mb/d in 2013, following growth of 0.6 mb/d inthe previous year. The 2013 total non-OPEC supply represents an upward adjustment of 0.1 mb/dfrom the previous month, mainly due to revisions in forecasts for the US, Canada, Mexico, Syria, andthe Sudans, as well as changes in the supply profile of some countries, in addition to updates tohistorical data. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are expected to average 6.0 mb/d in 2013,an increase of 0.2 mb/d over the previous year and unchanged from the previous report. InFebruary, total OPEC crude oil production, according to secondary sources, increased by 74 tb/d toaverage 30.31 mb/d. 

Product markets continued to move upwards in February. The top of the barrel became morebullish on the back of tightening sentiment in the product market, with gasoline inventories falling inthe Atlantic Basin amid healthy cracks in the middle of the barrel. Additionally, refinery margins inAsia continued to recover, supported by strong regional demand and expectations of tighteningsupplies in the region. 

In the tanker market, spot freight rates were mixed in February. VLCC and Suezmax spot freightrates declined, while Afraxmax rates increased. Tonnage availability, lower activity and holidays inthe Far East were the main factors behind the drop in spot freight rates. Freight rates for cleantankers declined east of Suez, while increasing slightly west of Suez. In February, OPEC spotfixtures fell, along with OPEC sailings. 

OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 3.1 mb in January, representing a slight deficit with the fiveyearaverage. Crude stood at 50 mb higher than the seasonal average, while products indicated adeficit of almost the same amount. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocksstood at 58.7 days, one-and-a-half days more than the five-year average. In February, UScommercial stocks fell 17 mb, but showed a surplus of 45 mb with the seasonal average. This dropwas attributed to products, as crude show an increase.

 Demand for OPEC crude in 2012 remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at30.1 mb/d, indicating a decline of 0.1 mb/d compared to the previous year. In 2013, required OPECcrude is forecasted to average 29.7 mb/d, a drop of 0.4 mb/d from last year and a downwardadjustment of 0.1 mb/d from the previous report.