2013年9月石油市场月报(2013)MOMR September 2013(2013)

8月份，欧佩克参考篮子平均为107.52美元/桶，比上月增加3.07美元。除厄瓜多尔的Oriente外，所有篮子组件的值都有所提高。价格普遍受到布伦特市场紧缩的支撑。该篮子今年迄今的价值为105.32美元/桶，较去年同期下降4.81美元或4.8%。8月份，由于季节性需求增加、部分供应中断和地缘政治担忧，大西洋两岸的国际原油期货价格飙升。随着冰布伦特原油期货和期权的净长度达到历史最高水平，基金经理们利用高政治风险和供应中断的组合推动原油价格上涨。纽约商品交易所WTI指数上涨1.84美元，至平均106.54美元/桶。ICEBrent指数上涨3.02美元，至平均110.45美元/桶。2013年和2014年世界经济增长预测分别保持在2.9%和3.5%不变。由于2013年第二季度的增长强于预期，美国2013年的增长率从1.6%上调至1.7%；2014年的预测仍为2.5%。在2013年第二季度恢复增长后，欧元区目前预计2013年将出现0.5%的低收缩；2014年的预测保持在0.6%。日本的预测从1.9%修正为1.7%，2014年的预测不变为1.4%。印度最近受到资本外流的影响，2013年的预测从5.6%修正为5.3%，2014年的增长保持在6.0%。中国对2013年和2014年的预测保持不变，分别为7.6%和7.7%。总体而言，在新兴经济体和发展中经济体放缓的情况下，发达经济体正在复苏，尽管水平较低。2013年世界石油需求增长略微上调了25 tb/d，反映出今年上半年实际数据高于预期，以及主要经济体出现好转的积极迹象，特别是在美国、英国和德国。2013年的预测目前为80万桶/日。2014年，世界石油需求预计将增长100万桶/日，与之前的预测一致，尽管为解释最新信息而进行了一些边际地区修正。2013年，非欧佩克石油供应预计将增长110万桶/日。美国、加拿大、南苏丹和苏丹、俄罗斯、中国和哥伦比亚的预期增长为增长提供了支撑，而叙利亚、挪威、英国和澳大利亚的产出预计将下降。2014年，非欧佩克石油供应预计将增长120万桶/日。预计2013年欧佩克天然气产量平均为580万桶/日，2014年为600万桶/日，分别增长20万桶/日和10万桶/日。据第二位消息人士透露，8月份，欧佩克原油产量为3023万桶/日，较上月减少124吨/日，8月份成品油市场表现喜忧参半。受即将到来的秋季保养季提振，市场人气趋紧，中间馏分油价格保持了一定的上涨势头。由于供应上升和大西洋盆地驾驶季节逐渐结束，需求低迷，全球原油桶顶和桶底均走弱。这导致全球炼油利润率下降，8月份油轮市场涨跌互现，超大型油轮现货运价下跌，苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮现货运价较一个月前上涨。超大型油轮现货运价下降的主要原因是油轮吨位供应、远东和英国的低活动和节假日，而苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮的运价则受到港口延误和及时更换的支持。8月份，欧佩克的现货供应量较上月下降，平均为1730万桶/日，而欧佩克的航运量则下降了60万桶/日。7月份，经合组织的商业石油库存总量增加了530万桶，但与5年平均水平相比，赤字约为5500万桶。原油库存比五年平均水平低2000万桶，产品库存下降3500万桶。在远期保护期内，经合组织商业股下跌58.5天，比五年平均水平高出0.3天。8月份的初步数据显示，美国商业石油库存小幅下降了70万桶，扭转了过去5个月的增长势头，但仍显示出与5年平均水平相比盈余3070万桶。原油和成品油库存分别出现1910万桶和1150万桶的盈余。预计2013年欧佩克原油需求平均为2990万桶/日，与上一份报告持平，比去年减少50万桶/日。2014年欧佩克原油需求较上一个月环比微跌至2960万桶/日，较上年下降30万桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $107.52/b in August, representing an increase of $3.07over the previous month. All Basket component values improved, except Ecuador’s Oriente. Priceswere generally supported by tightness in the Brent market. The Basket’s year-to-date value stood at$105.32/b, a decline of $4.81 or 4.8% from the same period last year. In August, international crudeoil futures soared on both sides of the Atlantic, as a result of seasonal increases in demand, somesupply outages, and geopolitical worries. Money managers capitalized on the combination of higherpolitical risks and supply disruptions to push crude prices higher as net length for ICE Brent crudefutures and options reached all-time highs. Nymex WTI rose $1.84 to an average of $106.54/b. ICEBrent jumped $3.02 to an average of $110.45/b.World economic growth forecasts for 2013 and 2014 remain unchanged at 2.9% and 3.5%,respectively. US growth for 2013 has been revised up to 1.7% from 1.6% due to a stronger-thanexpected2Q13; the 2014 forecast remains at 2.5%. After a return to growth in 2Q13, the Euro-zoneis now expected to see a lower contraction of 0.5% in 2013; the forecast for 2014 remains at 0.6%.Japan’s forecast has been revised to 1.7% from 1.9% and the 2014 forecast is unchanged at 1.4%.India has recently been impacted by capital outflows and its 2013 forecast has been revised from5.6% to 5.3%, while its 2014 growth remains at 6.0%. China’s forecasts remain unchanged at 7.6%and 7.7% for 2013 and 2014 respectively. Overall, developed economies are recovering – albeitfrom low levels – amid a slowdown in emerging and developing economies.World oil demand growth in 2013 was revised up slightly by 25 tb/d, reflecting higher-thanexpectedactual data for the first half of the year, as well as positive signs of improvement in majorOECD economies, particularly in the US, UK and Germany. The forecast for 2013 currently standsat 0.8 mb/d. In 2014, world oil demand is projected to grow by 1.0 mb/d, in line with the previousforecast, despite some marginal regional revisions to account for the latest information.Non-OPEC supply is anticipated to increase by 1.1 mb/d in 2013. Growth is supported by expectedgains in the US, Canada, South Sudan & Sudan, Russia, China, and Colombia, while output fromSyria, Norway, the UK and Australia is projected to decline. In 2014, non-OPEC oil supply is forecastto grow by 1.2 mb/d. OPEC NGLs are expected to average 5.8 mb/d in 2013 and 6.0 mb/d in 2014,representing growth of 0.2 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil productionstood at 30.23 mb/d, representing a decrease of 124 tb/d from the previous month, according tosecondary sources.Product markets exhibited a mixed performance in August. Middle distillates retained somestrength on the back of tightening sentiment, fuelled by the upcoming autumn maintenance season.The top and bottom of the barrel weakened worldwide, due to lacklustre demand amid risingsupplies and the winding down of the driving season in the Atlantic Basin. This caused refinerymargins to fall across the globe.The tanker market saw mixed movement in August, with VLCC spot freight rates dropping andSuezmax and Aframax spot rates rising from a month earlier. Tanker tonnage availability, low activityand holidays in the Far East and the UK were the main factors behind the decline in VLCC spotfreight rates, while Suezmax and Aframax freight rates saw support from port delays and promptreplacements. OPEC spot fixtures were lower in August compared to the previous month, averaging17.3 mb/d, while OPEC sailings reported a decline of 0.6 mb/d.Total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 5.3 mb in July, but indicated a deficit of around 55mb with the five-year average. Crude stocks were 20 mb below the five-year average andproduct inventories were down 35 mb. In days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stoodat 58.5 days, 0.3 days above the five-year average. Preliminary data for August shows that UScommercial oil stocks fell slightly by 0.7 mb, reversing the build of last five months, but stillindicating a surplus of 30.7 mb with the five-year average. Crude and product stocks sawsurpluses of 19.1 mb and 11.5 mb.Demand for OPEC crude in 2013 is forecast to average 29.9 mb/d, unchanged from the previousreport and 0.5 mb/d lower than last year. Demand for OPEC crude in 2014 was revised down slightlyto 29.6 mb/d since the last MOMR to show a decline of 0.3 mb/d compared to the current year.