2010年11月石油市场月报(2010)MOMR November 2010(2010)

10月，欧佩克的参考价格区间在78.50-81.50美元/桶的高位窄幅波动。这导致每月平均价格接近80美元/桶，为今年以来第二高，仅次于4月份的82.33美元/桶。欧佩克参考篮子的上涨是由未来市场的看涨情绪推动的，主要归因于第二轮量化调整后美元走软。去年11月，纽约商品交易所（Nymex）WTI前一个月上涨6.43美元，至10月略低于82美元/桶，11月第一周创下两年来新高。同样，ICE布伦特原油价格进一步上涨5.12美元，至平均83.54美元/桶，然后在11月突破88美元/桶。在经合组织制造业扩张好于预期的支持下，2010年世界经济增长率修正至4.1%。2011年的增长率仍保持在3.6%不变，因为目前的增长势头能否延续到来年仍不明朗。相对有弹性的美国经济预计2010年和2011年分别增长2.7%和2.4%。2010年，日本的预测值略微上升至2.9%，2011年保持在1.3%不变。德国的制造业基础一直推动欧元区的扩张，2010年为1.4%，2011年为1.1%。中国2010年和2011年的增长预期分别保持在9.5%和8.6%，而印度2010年的增长预期被修正为8.5%，2011年的增长预期保持在7.7%不变。2010年世界石油需求增长被修正为190 tb/d，目前为130万桶/d。石油需求在第三季度有所回升。由于经济活动强于预期，加上各种刺激计划的支持，经合组织的消费已经超出预期。对2011年世界石油需求增长的预测已经上调了约120 tb/d，目前为120 mb/d。经合组织需求前景的改善是这一调整背后的一个关键因素。然而，考虑到较高的基准线，石油需求增长预计将低于本年度。2010年非欧佩克国家的供应增长预计将增加100万桶/日，较上一份报告略有上升，美国、中国、巴西、俄罗斯、加拿大和哥伦比亚的增长为支撑。2011年，非欧佩克的供应量预计将增长360 tb/d，与之前的评估一致。预计巴西、加拿大、加纳、哥伦比亚、哈萨克斯坦和阿塞拜疆将成为明年经济增长的主要贡献者，而挪威、英国和墨西哥预计将经历最大跌幅。据估计，2011年，欧佩克天然气和非常规石油的平均日产量为520万桶，比今年增长了450 tb/d。10月份，欧佩克原油产量平均为2930万桶/日，比上个月增加了144吨/日。法国罢工后，由于对欧洲的公开套利，全球强劲的蒸馏油需求略微提振了产品市场的人气。然而，燃料油需求疲弱削弱了对一些地区的影响。一旦欧洲供应紧张局面结束，鉴于季节性需求低迷，预计汽油市场将回到熊市，未来几个月燃料油供应过剩可能会使炼油厂利润率持续低迷。10月份，油轮市场经历了多种模式。与其他航线的活跃市场相比，一些市场的高吨位可用性加上石油需求的季节性下降。超大型油轮现货运费下降了2.9%，苏伊士型油轮上涨了24.8%，阿芙拉型油轮10月份上涨了11.6%。清洁市场运价在10月份也出现了负增长，呈现出混合格局。苏伊士以东的原油价格下跌了14.4%，而苏伊士以西的原油价格上涨了4.4%。10月份，美国商业股下跌了1160万股，尽管原油产量增加了720万股，但产品却大幅减少了1880万股。尽管出现了平仓，但美国股市仍较五年平均水平轻松盈余10700万美元。欧盟15国加上挪威，原油库存总量增加850万桶，同比减少1070万桶，而产品库存则下降了220万桶。欧洲股市比五年平均水平高出630万英镑。9月份最新数据显示，日本商业股下跌1060万股。然而，10月份的初步迹象显示，石油输出国组织原油需求反弹790万桶。2010年，石油输出国组织原油需求估计为2880万桶/日，此前的报告上调了30万桶/日。与一年前相比，下降了0.2 mb/d。2011年，石油输出国组织（OPEC）原油需求预计平均为2920万桶/日，较上年增加约40万桶/日，此前的评估上调了40万桶/日。

 The OPEC Reference Basket moved within a higher but narrow range of $78.50-81.50/b inOctober. This resulted in a monthly average of nearly $80/b, the second highest so far this year afterApril’s $82.33/b. The rise in the OPEC Reference Basket was driven by bullish sentiment in thefutures market, mainly attributable to the weaker US dollar following the second round of quantitativeeasing. The Basket continued moving higher in November to stand at $85.27/b on 10 November.The Nymex WTI front-month rose $6.43 to stand slightly below $82/b in October before going on tohit a two-year high in the first week of November. Similarly, ICE Brent gained a further $5.12 toaverage $83.54/b and then moved beyond $88/b in November. Growth in the world economy was revised up to 4.1% for 2010, supported by a better-thanexpectedexpansion in the manufacturing sector of the OECD. Growth for 2011 remains unchangedat 3.6% as it is still unclear if the current momentum can be carried over into the coming year. Arelative resilient US economy is now forecast to grow at 2.7% in 2010 and 2.4% in 2011. Theforecast for Japan was revised up slightly to 2.9% for 2010 and left unchanged at 1.3% for 2011.Germany’s manufacturing base has been driving the expansion in the Euro-zone to 1.4% in 2010and 1.1% in 2011. Growth expectations for China remain at 9.5% in 2010 and 8.6% in 2011, whileIndia’s forecast was revised up to 8.5% in 2010 and remains unchanged at 7.7% in 2011. World oil demand growth in 2010 has been revised up by 190 tb/d to now stand at 1.3 mb/d. Oildemand has been picking up in the third quarter. Consumption in the OECD has outpacedexpectations as a result of the stronger-than-expected economic activities, supported by variousstimulus plans. The forecast for world oil demand growth in 2011 has been revised up by around120 tb/d to now stand at 1.2 mb/d. The improved outlook for OECD demand is a key factor behindthis adjustment. However, given the higher baseline, oil demand growth is expected to be lower thanin the current year. Non-OPEC supply growth in 2010 is projected to increase by 1.0 mb/d, a minor upward revisionfrom the previous report, supported by growth in the US, China, Brazil, Russia, Canada, andColombia. In 2011, non-OPEC supply is forecast to grow by 360 tb/d, in line with the previousassessment. Brazil, Canada, Ghana, Colombia, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan are expected to be themain contributors to next year’s growth, while Norway, UK, and Mexico are anticipated to experiencethe largest declines. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are estimated to average 5.2 mb/d in2011, indicating growth of 450 tb/d over the current year. In October, OPEC crude productionaveraged 29.30 mb/d, an increase of 144 tb/d over the previous month. Strong distillate demand across the globe amid open arbitrage to Europe following the French strikehas slightly lifted sentiment in the product markets. However, weak fuel oil demand has diminishedthe impact in some areas. Once the tight supply situation in Europe ends, the gasoline market isexpected to move back over to the bearish side, given low seasonal demand, and the oversupply offuel oil is likely to keep refinery margins depressed over the coming months. The tanker market experienced mixed patterns in October. High tonnage availability combined withthe seasonal drop in oil demand in some markets contrasted with active markets for other routes.VLCC spot freight rates declined 2.9%, while Suezmax jumped 24.8% and Aframax rose 11.6%m-o-m in October. Clean market freight rates also experienced a negative performance in Octoberamid mixed patterns. East of Suez rates slumped 14.4%, while West of Suez rates rose 4.4%. US commercial stocks declined 11.6 mb in October, despite a 7.2 mb build in crude as productsdropped by a substantial 18.8 mb. Despite the draw, US stocks remained at a comfortable surplus of107 mb over the five-year average. EU 15 plus Norway total inventories rose 8.5 mb driven by abuild of 10.7 mb in crude, while products fell 2.2 mb. European stocks stood 6.3 mb above the fiveyearaverage. The most recent data for September shows commercial stocks in Japan fell by10.6 mb. However, preliminary indications for October show a rebound of 7.9 mb. The demand for OPEC crude in 2010 is estimated at 28.8 mb/d, following an upward adjustment of0.3 mb/d from the previous report. This represents a decline of 0.2 mb/d compared to a year ago. In2011, the demand from OPEC crude is expected to average 29.2 mb/d, about 0.4 mb/d higher thanin the previous year, following an upward adjustment of 0.4 mb/d from the previous assessment.