2003年10月石油市场月报(2003)MOMR October 2003(2003)

据预测，2003年世界GDP将增长3.2%，与上个月的预测持平。考虑到美国经济预测略有增长，加上印度人口减少，欧洲经合组织的预测也没有改变。美国经济前景继续受益于消费支出的强劲增长，尽管日本的前景因担心资本支出步伐可能放缓和日元升值会削弱出口增长而变得黯淡。随着大多数亚洲经济体的前景继续好转，亚太地区的预期略有上调。否则，发展中国家作为一个整体的预测不变，国内生产总值预计将增长3.5%。欧盟成员国对2003年的预测平均下降了0.2%，而对波兰等前社会主义国家快速增长的经济体的预测则有所提高。北美和欧洲预计将在2004年实现更高的增长率，但日本的表现可能因国内需求持续低迷而受到影响。尽管该地区许多经济体的表现持续不佳，但欧洲2004年的预测不变。这反映了最近稳定的迹象，并提高了人们的期望，特别是在德国。亚太地区、拉丁美洲和非洲的增长率应该从经合组织2.8%的高增长中获益，而2004年世界国内生产总值的增长率预计将升至4.0%。在与中国和美国有联系的经济体中，2004年经济增长的改善将最为显著。由于2003年下半年强劲的增长势头推动了出口活动，北美和拉丁美洲应该看到显著的加速。欧洲2004年的前景取决于国内复苏，因为高昂的成本和不断升值的货币可能会限制出口。七国集团（G7）宣布后，日本也可能在2004年艰难地实现出口增长，尽管中国的持续扩张以及与美国的贸易联系应该会支持亚洲的增长。不包括日本、中国和韩国在内的其他亚洲国家的经济增长率应该达到5.2%，很容易成为全球经济增长率最高的地区。今年4月开始的5个月复苏，8月参考篮子价格跌至28.63美元/桶，9月突然停止，篮子价格暴跌2.31美元/桶，或8.07%，至26.32美元/桶。令人敬畏的是，篮子在9月大部分时间内继续自由下跌，直到本月底才回升。在截至10月9日的一周内，这一篮子货币的价格稳步上涨1.41美元/桶，随后在10月16日飙升至29.74美元/桶，远高于价格区间机制的上限。由于原油价格大幅下跌，9月份的产品价格普遍走低。美国汽油需求的季节性大幅下降进一步压低了地区价格，进而波及其他市场，而所有三个市场的蒸馏油需求的温和增长缓冲了汽油价格的下跌。结果，美国和欧洲炼油厂利润率有所下降，但仍保持在上升趋势。尽管如此，随着秋季维护季节的开始，美国的炼油厂产量有所下降，但由于为即将到来的冬季准备蒸馏油库存的努力，欧洲和日本的炼油厂产量有所增加。欧佩克地区现货供应量反季节下降237万桶/日，至917万桶/日，较一年前下降35%。原油货物运价逆转了上月的下降趋势，显示出大幅上涨，特别是在超大型油轮领域。例外情况是70000-100000载重吨和40000-70000载重吨货物，在一些航线上出现了中度损失。产品运价显示了不同的方向，但总体上是疲软的。中东/东部航线上运载30 50000载重吨的中型油轮是唯一的例外，因为由于相对健康的活动，费率上升了相当大的40点，达到每月平均WS 210。除了一些小的调整外，2003年和2004年的世界石油需求估计和预测仍与上一次《世界石油报告》中的预测和预测基本相同。2003年的需求量和增量均呈上升趋势，目前分别为78.18 mb/d和1.20 mb/d。2004年世界石油需求预测较之前的7933万桶/日略有下降至7925万桶/日。根据第二来源，欧佩克9月份的原油产量估计为2711万桶/日。非欧佩克国家2003年的石油供应预计为4874万桶/日，比2004年的4781万桶/日多出0.93万桶/日。2004年非经营性供应预计将达到4997万桶/日，比2003年的预测增加124万桶/日。2002年和2003年的净出口量估计分别为556mb/d和632mb/d，预计2004年将增至685mb/d。9月份，美国石油商业库存增长了3200万桶，达到96700万桶，其中原油和成品油的增长起到了推波助澜的作用。10月16日的最新一周数据证实，原油库存持续增加，馏分油库存仍在正常范围内。16欧元区的石油库存总量约为1800万至10458万桶，主要是由于原油库存减少了1300万桶。8月份，日本商业股延续了上涨趋势，增加了160万股，而克鲁德油库存则减少了370万股，仍比去年同期水平高出8%。

World GDP is forecast to grow by 3.2% in 2003, unchanged from last month’s estimate. The forecast for theOECD also remains unchanged, taking into account a slight increase in the US forecast balanced by a reduction inJapan’s. The US outlook continues to benefit from very strong growth in consumer spending , while the outlookfor Japan has dimmed on concern that the pace of capital spending may ease and the higher yen undermine exportgrowth. Estimates for Asia Pacific have been raised slightly as the outlook for most Asian economies continues toimprove. Otherwise, the forecast for developing countries as a group is unchanged with GDP expected to grow by3.5%. Estimates for EU members for 2003 have been reduced by 0.2% on average, while forecasts have beenincreased for the fast growing economies of former socialist countries such as Poland. North America and Europe are expected to achieve higher growth rates in 2004, but Japan’s performance may berestrained by continued low levels of domestic demand. The forecast for Europe in 2004 is unchanged despite thecontinuing poor performance of many of the region’s economies. This reflects recent signs of stabilization andimproving expectations, particularly in Germany. The growth rates of Asia Pacific, Latin America and Africa shouldbenefit from higher OECD growth at 2.8%, while the growth rate for World GDP is expected to rise to 4.0% in2004. Improved economic growth in 2004 will be most conspicuous in economies with links to China and the UnitedStates. North America and Latin America should see significant acceleration as momentum from the strong secondhalf of 2003 boosts export activity. The outlook for Europe in 2004 is dependent on domestic recovery as highcosts and an appreciating currency may restrict exports. Following the G7 announcement, Japan may also struggleto grow exports in 2004, although continued expansion in China and trade links to the US should support Asiangrowth. Other Asia — which excludes Japan, China and Kor ea — should see a growth rate of 5.2%, easily thehighest of all the global regions. The five-month recovery, which began in April this year and took the price of the Reference Basket to$ 28.63/b in August, came to an abrupt halt in September as the Basket plunged $2.31/b or 8.07% to $26.32/b. On aweekly count, the Basket went on a free fall during most of September, pulling up only towards the end of themonth. In the week ending 9 October, the Basket scored a solid rise of $1.41/b, before soaring to $29.74/b on 16October, well above the upper limit of the price band mechanism. Product prices in September were generally driven lower by considerable falls in crude prices. The sharpseasonal decline in US gasoline demand further depressed regional prices, which, in turn, extended to othermarkets, while modest growth in distillate demand in all three markets cushioned the fall of the gasoil price. Asresult, refinery margins retreated in the USA and Europe yet still remained in positive territory. Nonetheless, withthe start of the autumn maintenance season, refinery throughput decreased in the USA but increased in Europeand Japan on efforts to prepare distillate stockpiles for the impending winter season. OPEC area spot fixtures showed a contra-seasonal decline of 2.37 mb/d to stand at 9.17 mb/d, a drop of 35%from the level observed a year ago. Freight rates for crude oil cargoes reversed last month’s downward trend,showing considerable increases, especially in the VLCC sector. The exception was 70,000-100,000 DWT and40,000-70,000 DWT cargoes, which witnessed moderate losses on some routes. Product freight rates showedmixed directions but were generally soft. Medium-range tankers carrying 30 50,000 DWT along the MiddleEast/East route were the sole exception as rates rose a considerable 40 points to a monthly average of WS 210 dueto relatively healthy activity. Except for some minor adjustments, world oil demand estimates and forecasts for 2003 and 2004 remain much thesame as those presented in the previous MOMR. Both the demand volume and increment for 2003 have beenadjusted upwards and now stand at 78.18 mb/d and 1.20 mb/d respectively. The world demand forecast for 2004has been revised down slightly to 79.25 mb/d compared to a previous 79.33 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in September, based on secondary sources, is estimated at 27.11 mb/d. Non-OPEC oilsupply for 2003 is forecast at 48.74 mb/d, which is 0.93 mb/d more than the 47.81 mb/d estimated for 2004. NonOPECsupply in 2004 is expected to reach 49.97 mb/d, an increase of 1.24 mb/d over the 2003 forecast. Net FSUexports for 2002 and 2003 are estimated at 5.56 mb/d and 6.32 mb/d respectively, and expected to rise to 6.85 mb/din 2004. US oil commercial stocks rose a considerable 32.0 mb to stand at 967.0 mb in September, with crude oil andproducts contributing to the increase. The most recent weekly data from 16 October confirms that crude oilstocks experienced a continued build and distillate inventories remain within the normal range. Total oil stocksin the Eur-16 registered a contra -seasonal build of around 18 mb to 1,045.8 mb, mainly on a 13 mb decrease in crudeoil stocks. Japan’s commercial stocks continued their upward trend in August, increasing by 1.6 mb, while crudeoil inventories registered a draw of 3.7 mb, which was still 8% above the year-ago level.