2006年3月石油市场月报(2006)MOMR March 2006(2006)

早期迹象表明，2006年的世界经济已经有了坚实的基础。制造业的增长尤其强劲，亚洲经济体的出口和产出实现了健康增长。在欧洲，包括德国和捷克共和国在内的出口国今年也有一个良好的开端，尽管该地区的国内需求仍然低迷。2006年美国经济的表现可能是不稳定的。从2005年第四季度的糟糕反弹应该能确保第一季度的健康增长，但利率的提高和房地产市场的降温似乎会使经济在春季出现适度增长。

预计2006年美国经济将增长3.2%。德国的商业信心正在明显改善，2006年的经济增长预期已增至1.5%。对东欧出口经济体的预期也有所改善。日本2006年的预测从2.2%提高到2.6%，这是由于国内需求的增长，而这一增长应得到个人收入持续增长的支持。这一升级是日本将2006年世界GDP增长预测提高到4.4%的主要原因。

欧洲和日本的经济增长预期并没有被央行忽视。随着全球经济反映出上世纪90年代末的产能利用水平，决策者们确信，审慎的风险管理迫使货币当局采取行动。收紧货币政策将成为2006年的一个主要主题，尤其是在日本。适应更加严格的金融条件将是今年世界经济面临的诸多挑战之一，其他挑战包括：尽管美国经济增长放缓，贸易紧张局势加剧，但仍需保持世界贸易的势头；努力减少主要经济体的财政赤字，以及高水平的股权和债务以及房地产市场给金融稳定带来的持续风险。

地缘政治方面的担忧继续对市场构成压力，但股市高位、特别是美国的大规模维护计划以及原油流入亚洲的套利机会等一系列下行因素抵消了这一担忧。因此，该篮子原油价格下跌1.92美元，跌幅超过3%，本月平均价格为56.36美元/桶。3月上半月，市场对供应的担忧再度抬头，不过，欧佩克（OPEC）决定维持产出不变，这一上升趋势在一定程度上削弱了这种担忧。因此，3月16日，日篮子价格达到57.45美元/桶。

美国的炼油厂维修、东北部的正常冬季以及欧洲的持续寒流导致西半球的炼油利润率上升。亚洲的情况相对不同，因为每桶原油的良好表现，特别是在本月下旬，未能超过迪拜基准原油的平均月成本，导致2月份炼油厂利润率比上月下降0.16美元/桶。展望未来，美国和亚洲未来几个月的重型柴油机维护计划，以及对汽油和柴油的较高季节性需求，加上强劲的经济增长，应能支撑产品价格和炼油厂利润率。这种看涨情绪反映在最近美国和欧洲产品期货市场的上涨。

由于季节性需求下降以及尼日利亚供应中断，欧佩克2月份的现货供应量大幅下降230万桶/日，至1290万桶/日，而航运量飙升180万桶/日，至2570万桶/日，部分原因是现货供应量较上月有所增加。就油轮市场而言，超大型油轮和苏伊士型油轮板块的原油现货运价依然坚挺，但到本月底大幅下跌。然而，从中东向东和西移动的超大型油轮的费率比一年前下降了10-15%。产品运价大幅走软，尤其是中东/东线的运价下跌156点，至平均WS207，为2004年年中以来的最低水平。同样地，在地中海盆地和从那里到西北欧的油轮的价格也下跌了110点左右，最终在WS300附近落户。

有经合组织国家以及许多发展中国家和中国2005年全年的初步数据，全球石油需求似乎已经增长了近100万桶/日或1.1%，达到平均8300万桶/日。估计的增长略低于上一个数字，这一差异可以追溯到2005年最后一个季度对增长的向下修正。全球石油需求增长已被下调约0.1 Mb/d，以解释一月和二月美国需求的持续性萎缩，以及经济合作与发展组织对亚洲经济增长的悲观看法。因此，世界石油需求预计将增长150万桶/日或1.8%，达到平均8450万桶/日，高于去年的100万桶/日，但仅为2004年异常增长的一半。

2005年非欧佩克石油供应量估计为5010万桶/日，比2004年增加了20万桶/日，与上月持平。2006年，非欧佩克国家的石油平均供应量预计为5150万桶/日，比2005年增加140万桶/日，略低于上一次评估。历史修订、近期表现、非计划停工以及对墨西哥、挪威、澳大利亚、巴西、埃及、苏丹的前景的轻微调整的影响，导致了每季的一些修订，并将70000 B/D向下调整为全年增长预测。二级消息来源显示，2月份，欧佩克原油总产量平均为2970万桶/日，较上月增加16万桶/日。

2月份，经合组织原油净进口量保持在2430万桶/日的水平，美国进口量增加约40万桶/日，平均为1000万桶/日，日本进口量减少约20万桶/日，降至400万桶/日。经合组织原油净进口量增加62，000桶/日至近3百万桶/日，日本进口量增加0.2百万桶/日，美国进口量下降几乎相同。中国原油净进口量猛增70万桶/日，涨幅28%，超过300万桶/日；成品油净进口量下降17万桶/日，至50万桶/日。

Early indications suggest that the world economy has begun 2006 on a solid footing. Growth in the manufacturing sectorhas been particularly strong and economies in Asia achieved healthy increases in exports and output. In Europe, exportersincluding Germany and the Czech Republic also had a good start to the year although domestic demand in the regionremains depressed. The performance of the US economy in 2006 may be volatile. The rebound from the poor fourth quarterof 2005 should ensure healthy growth in the first quarter but higher interest rates and a cooling housing market seem set tomoderate growth into the spring.

  The US economy is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2006. Germany is experiencing a clear improvement in businesssentiment and the growth forecast for 2006 has been increased to 1.5%. Expectations for the exporting economies ofEastern Europe have also improved. The 2006 forecast for Japan has been raised to 2.6% from 2.2% as a result ofstrengthening domestic demand which should be supported by continued growth in personal incomes. This upgrade forJapan is the main reason that the forecast for world GDP growth in 2006 has been raised to 4.4%. 

Expectations of higher growth in Europe and Japan have not gone unnoticed by central banks. As the global economyreaches levels of capacity utilization last seen in the late 1990s, policymakers are convinced that prudent risk managementobliges monetary authorities to act. Tighter monetary policies are set to be a major theme for 2006, not least in Japan. Theadjustment to more restrictive financial conditions will be one of many challenges facing the world economy this year.Other challenges include the need to maintain the momentum of world trade despite slower US growth and rising tradetensions, the struggle to reduce the fiscal deficits of the major economies, and the ongoing risks to financial stability posedby the high levels of equity and debt as well as the housing markets. 

Geopolitical concerns continued to pressure the market, but were outweighed by a host of downward factors such as highstock levels, a heavy maintenance schedule particularly in the USA and arbitrage opportunities for crude flows into Asia.As a result, the Basket fell $1.92 or over 3% to average $56.36/b for the month. The first half of March saw a revival ofsupply fears, although the upward trend was somewhat undercut by the OPEC decision to keep output unchanged. As aresult, the daily Basket price reached $57.45/b on 16 March. 

Refinery maintenance in the USA, normal winter in the Northeast and a continued cold snap in Europe resulted in a rise inrefinery margins in the Western Hemisphere. The situation in Asia was relatively different as the good performance of thebarrel complex, particularly in the latter part of the month, failed to outpace the average monthly cost of Dubai benchmarkcrude, resulting in a $0.16/b decline in refinery margins in February over the previous month. Looking ahead, the heavyrefinery maintenance schedule in the USA and Asia over the next few months, along with higher seasonal demand forgasoline and diesel, in tandem with robust economic growth, should support product prices and refinery margins. Thisbullish sentiment has been reflected in recent rise in the product futures markets in the USA and Europe. 

OPEC spot fixtures declined a significant 2.3 mb/d to 12.9 mb/d in February due to lower seasonal demand as well asdisruptions in Nigerian supply, while sailings soared by 1.8 mb/d to 25.7 mb/d due partly to the high number of spot fixturesfrom the previous month. For the tanker market, crude oil spot freight rates for the VLCC and Suezmax sectors remainedstrong but fell sharply by the end of the month. However, rates for VLCCs moving from the Middle East to the East and theWest were 10-15% lower than a year earlier. Product freight rates weakened considerably, especially on the Middle East/Eastroute where they lost 156 points to average WS207, their lowest level since mid-2004. Similarly, rates for tankers tradingacross the Mediterranean basin and from there to North-West Europe lost around 110 points to settle around WS300. 

With preliminary data for OECD countries as well as many Developing Countries and China available for the entire 2005,global oil demand appears to have grown by almost 1 mb/d or 1.1 % to average 83.0 mb/d. The estimated growth is slightlylower than the previous figure and the difference can be traced back to a downward revision to growth in the last quarter of2005. Global oil demand growth for the present year has been revised down by approximately 0.1 mb/d to account for apersistent y-o-y contraction in US demand during January and February as well as a more pessimistic view of growth innon-OECD Asia. Thus, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.5 mb/d or 1.8 % to average 84.5 mb/d, higher than lastyear’s 1 mb/d but only half the exceptional growth seen in 2004. 

Non-OPEC supply in 2005 is estimated at 50.1 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.2 mb/d over 2004 and unchanged fromlast month. In 2006, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 51.5 mb/d, an increase of 1.4 mb/d over 2005, slightlylower that the last assessment. The impact of historical revisions, recent performance, unplanned shutdowns as well asminor adjustments to the outlook for Mexico, Norway, Australia, Brazil, Egypt, Sudan have resulted in some revisions on aquarterly basis, and a downward adjustment of 70,000 b/d to the full-year growth forecast. In February, total OPEC crudeoil production averaged 29.7 mb/d, according to secondary sources, an increase of 160,000 b/d from last month. 

OECD net crude oil imports remained almost stable at 24.3 mb/d in February with US imports increasing by around0.4 mb/d to average 10.0 mb/d and Japanese imports declining by around 0.2 mb/d to 4.0 mb/d. OECD net product importsincreased by 62,000 b/d to nearly 3 mb/d with Japanese imports increasing by 0.2 mb/d and US imports dropping by almostthe same level. China’s net crude oil imports surged 0.7 mb/d or 28% to more than 3 mb/d, while product net imports fellby 170,000 b/d to 0.5 mb/d.