2010年7月石油市场月报(2010)MOMR July 2010(2010)

石油市场亮点

今年6月，欧佩克一篮子参考原油价格平均下跌1.53美元，至72.95美元/桶。整个月，由于经济数据喜忧参半，对经济复苏的力度描绘了一幅不确定的图景，市场仍不稳定。欧洲的主权债务担忧以及中国的财政和货币政策收紧，抵消了美国汽油需求略有改善，有时失业申请人数下降的影响。股票和汇率波动也影响了价格。7月初，由于市场情绪因经济担忧而暂时转为看跌，该篮子价格跌至70美元/桶以下。然而，到第二周，价格在7月14日回升至73.93美元/桶。

2010年世界经济增长势头强劲，预计增长3.8%。迄今为止，经济复苏得到了前所未有的财政和货币刺激的支持。预计在未来几个月，这两项指标都将逐渐减少，私人消费和投资将不得不得到补偿。再加上大多数发达国家宣布的财政紧缩措施以及中国的货币和财政紧缩，明年的经济增长应该会略有放缓。因此，预计2011年世界经济将增长3.7%。经济增长率为2.0%，美国为2.5%，日本为1.4%，欧元区为0.9%。预计对全球增长的主要贡献将再次来自非OEC国家，主要是中国，占8.8%，印度占7.7%。

2010年世界石油需求增长率不变，为90万桶/日。经合组织地区预计今年不会出现任何增长，主要是由于欧洲需求下降。2011年，世界石油需求预计将增长100万桶/日，反映出对全球经济复苏步伐的持续谨慎。增长将发生在非经合组织国家，主要是中国、印度、中东和拉丁美洲。由于经济持续复苏，对工业燃料的需求将强劲，预计运输燃料的需求也将健康增长。美国的汽油需求预计将恢复正常增长，尽管增长速度存在令人担忧的不确定性。

2010年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应预计将增加70万桶/日，较上一次评估值上升了不到10万桶/日，主要原因是上半年的生产数据更强劲。2011，非欧佩克石油供应预计将增长0.3 Mb/d。预计巴西、加拿大、阿塞拜疆、哥伦比亚和哈萨克斯坦是主要的贡献者，而EMEXICO、英国和挪威预计将经历最大跌幅。深海供应的不确定性构成风险。预计2011年欧佩克天然气和非常规石油产量将达到540万桶/日，比今年大幅增长约50万桶/日。6月份，欧佩克原油平均日产量为2920万桶，与上月相比相对稳定。

对中间馏分油的需求增加、经济增长好转的迹象以及驾驶季节对汽油需求的乐观情绪，共同支撑了6月初的产品市场情绪和价格。然而，随着近几周炼油厂维修工作的完成、产品供应的增加以及对世界经济增长速度的担忧加剧，物理和期货产品市场已经失去了一些力量。当前的情绪可能会随着经济复苏的步伐和飓风季节可能出现的业务中断而改变。这可能为未来几个月的原油市场提供一些支撑。

由于超大型油轮运价上涨，5月份油轮市场涨跌互现，苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮的现货运价则有所下降。中国的活动支持了超大型油轮运价的增长，而疲软的活动以及超吨位的供应影响了苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮市场。产品现货率较上月下降5.1%，反映出吨位增加和部分产品的套利行为。欧佩克的升空幅度略高，而抵达量则下降了2.7%。

美国商业股延续上涨趋势，6月份在产品建设推动下上涨1020万股。由于这一增长，库存比五年平均水平高出8700万桶。欧洲6月份石油库存总量（欧盟加挪威）下降了480万桶。抽签的原因是产量和原油下降，仍比季节正常水平高出3600万桶。在日本，商业石油股5月份上涨了900万桶，将5年平均赤字缩小至2.6%。初步数据显示，截至6月底，日本商业石油库存总量下降了约400万股。

据估计，2010年欧佩克原油需求为2870万桶/日，比上一份报告低约10万桶/日。与一年前相比，这意味着每天减少了0.3 mb。2011年，预计欧佩克原油需求量平均为2880万桶/日，比上年增加20万桶/日。

Oil Market Highlights 

The OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.53 to average $72.95/b in June. The marketremained volatile throughout the month as mixed economic data painted an uncertain picture aboutthe strength of the economic recovery. Sovereign debt concerns in Europe and fiscal and monetarytightening in China offset the slightly improving gasoline demand in the US and at times fallingjobless claims. Equities and exchange rate fluctuations also impacted prices. In early July, theBasket fell below $70/b as market sentiment turned temporarily bearish on economic concerns.However, by the second week, prices recovered to stand at $73.93/b on 14 July. 

The world economy has gained momentum in 2010 and is expected to grow by 3.8%. Therecovery has so far been supported by unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus. Both areexpected to gradually diminish over the coming months, and private consumption and investmentwill have to compensate. This, combined with announced fiscal austerity measures in most of thedeveloped countries and monetary and fiscal tightening in China, should lead to a slight moderationin growth next year. As a result, the world economy is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2011. TheOECD is seen growing by 2.0%, led by the US at 2.5%, while Japan is at 1.4% and the Euro-zone at0.9%. The main contribution to global growth is again projected to come from the non-OECDcountries, mainly China at 8.8% and India at 7.7%. 

World oil demand growth in 2010 is unchanged at 0.9 mb/d. The OECD region is not expectedto see any growth this year, mainly due to declining European demand. In 2011, world oildemand is projected to grow by 1.0 mb/d, reflecting continued caution about the pace of theglobal economic recovery. Growth will take place in the non-OECD, mainly China, India, theMiddle East and Latin America. The demand for industrial fuel will be strong as a result of thecontinuing economic recovery, with healthy growth also expected in demand for transportationfuels. US gasoline demand is expected to return to normal growth, although with considerableuncertainty about the pace of growth. 

Non-OPEC supply is now expected to increase by 0.7 mb/d in 2010, representing an upwardrevision of less than 0.1 mb/d from the last assessment, primarily due to stronger production data inthe first half of the year. In 2011, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 0.3 mb/d. Brazil,Canada, Azerbaijan, Colombia, and Kazakhstan are forecast to be the main contributors, whileMexico, UK, and Norway are foreseen to experience the largest declines. Uncertainties regardingdeep offshore supply constitute a risk. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are projected to reach5.4 mb/d in 2011, indicating a significant increase of around 0.5 mb/d over this year. In June, OPECcrude output averaged 29.2 mb/d, relatively steady with respect to the previous month. 

Increasing demand for middle distillates, signs of improving economic growth and positive sentimentfor gasoline demand during the driving season combined to support product market sentiment andprices in early June. However, with the completion of refinery maintenance, increasing productsupplies and rising concerns about the pace of world economic growth in recent weeks, bothphysical and futures product markets have lost some of their strength. The prevailing sentimentmay change dependent on pace of economic recovery and potential operational disruptions over thehurricane season. This could provide some support for crude markets over the coming months. 

The tanker market was mixed in May as VLCC rates increased, while Suezmax and Aframax spotrates declined. Chinese activity supported the increase in VLCC rates while muted activity as well asexcess tonnage availability influenced the Suezmax and Aframax markets. Product spot rates fell5.1% over the previous month reflecting increased tonnage and the arbitrage in some products.OPEC liftings were marginally higher, while arrivals experienced a decline of 2.7%. 

US commercial stocks continued their upward trend, rising by 10.2 mb in June, driven by a build inproducts. As a result of this increase, stocks stand at 87 mb above the five-year average. Europeantotal oil inventories (EU plus Norway) declined 4.8 mb in June. The draw was due to declines inproducts and crude, which still remained 36.0 mb above the seasonal norm. In Japan, commercialoil stocks rose 9.0 mb in May, narrowing the deficit with five-year average to 2.6%. Preliminaryindications show Japanese total commercials oil stocks declined by around 4 mb at the end of June.

  The demand for OPEC crude in 2010 is estimated at 28.7 mb/d, around 0.1 mb/d lower than theprevious report. This represents a decline of 0.3 mb/d compared to a year ago. In 2011, demandfrom OPEC crude is expected to average 28.8 mb/d, an increase of 0.2 mb/d over the previous year.