2013年5月石油市场月报(2013)MOMR May 2013(2013)

今年4月，欧佩克参考价格篮子连续第二个月下跌，下跌5.39美元，跌幅超过5%，至101.05美元/桶。今年以来，参考价格篮子较去年同期下跌10.22美元或8.7%。4月份，原油期货再次遭受重创，截至2012年7月，布伦特原油期货价格下跌5.6%，月均价约为103美元/桶。纽约商品交易所（Nymex）的WTI指数小幅下跌1%，至92美元/桶。脆弱的全球经济加上需求增长放缓、原油产量上升和高库存的前景，导致油价下跌。由于动量交易导致黄金和白银等大宗商品抛售，导致黄金和白银等大宗商品暴跌创纪录水平，原油也因交叉商品和股市羊群行为而下跌。美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）和欧洲商品交易所（CE）对交易员报告的最新承诺，证实了4月份投资者对石油的看跌情绪。不过，自本月初以来，该篮子指数有所改善，于5月9日升至101.67美元/桶。继前一年增长3.0%后，预计2013年世界经济增长率为3.2%，与上次报告没有变化。美国住房和劳动力市场继续显示复苏，但考虑到持续存在的财政不确定性，美国2013年的增长预测仍保持在1.8%不变。日本的预测已经从0.8%修正为1.1%，这是由于近期货币刺激的支持。欧元区的预测保持不变，预计将收缩0.5%。出口放缓影响了中国经济，增长率从8.1%修正为8.0%，而印度的预测不变，为6.0%。今年年初以来，全球经济出现了脆弱的复苏，但势头再次开始放缓，增长风险向下行倾斜。2013年世界石油需求增长与上一份报告保持不变，为80万桶/日，与2012年的预测大体一致。不过，根据实际数据，今年第一季度的业绩已经有所下降。增长的很大一部分来自中国，每天增长40万桶。其他非经合组织国家预计将增加约80万桶/日，中东地区约为30万桶/日，其次是其他亚洲和拉丁美洲，分别增长约20万桶/日。相比之下，经合组织的需求预计将萎缩约40万桶/日，略低于2012年。非欧佩克的供应预计2013年将增长100万桶/日，2012年将增长50万桶/日，与上一份报告基本持平。2013年，经合组织（OECD）美洲仍然是增长的驱动力，而OECD欧洲的降幅最大。预计2013年，欧佩克天然气和非常规石油产量将增加20万桶/日。据二级消息人士估计，4月份，欧佩克原油总产量平均为3046万桶/日，较上月增加0.28万桶/日。4月份，由于轻质和中间馏分油裂缝的急剧下降，成品油市场继续失地，这些裂缝受到供应增加和全球需求减弱的压力。在亚洲，炼油厂利润率下降的主要原因是桶顶。由于WTI价格的回升，美国的利润率经历了强劲的调整。在欧洲，布伦特原油价格的下跌使得欧洲利润率得以回升，尽管由于国内需求低迷，市场基本面疲弱。在油轮市场，由于吨位需求较低，脏油和清洁油市场普遍看跌。平均来说，脏货现货运价比上个月下降了4%。运费下降的主要原因是炼油厂维修需求下降和冬季结束。与上月相比，欧佩克和中东航线以及所有报告港口的抵达量均有所下降。经合组织商业石油库存在3月份略有下降，与5年平均水平保持一致。原油比季节平均水平高出1900万桶，而产品则显示出约相同数量的赤字。就远期覆盖率而言，经合组织（OECD）股价为59.1天，比五年平均水平高出约1.3天。初步数据显示，4月份美国商业股上涨2000万桶。这表明，与季节平均水平相比，欧佩克原油过剩4200万桶，其中大部分来自原油。2012年欧佩克原油需求量估计为3020万桶/日，较上一份报告上调了10万桶/日，与上一年相比基本持平。2013年，预计欧佩克原油需求平均为2980万桶/日，较上一份报告上调了10万桶/日，较去年下降了40万桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket dropped for the second-consecutive month in April, declining by$5.39 or more than 5% to stand at $101.05/b. Year-to-date, the Basket declined by $10.22 or 8.7%from the same period last year. Crude oil futures took a substantial hit again in April, with Brentfalling 5.6% to July 2012 levels with a monthly average of around $103/b. Nymex WTI edged 1%lower to average $92/b. A vulnerable global economy combined with the prospect of moderatedemand growth, rising crude production, and high stocks sent prices tumbling. Crude oil also lostground amid cross-commodity and equity market herd behaviour as momentum trading led to a selloffthat sent commodities, such as gold and silver, plunging by record levels. The latest CFTC andICE commitment of traders’ reports confirmed the bearish investor sentiment towards oil in April.However, the Basket has shown some improvement since the start of the month to stand at$101.67/b on 9 May.World economic growth is forecast at 3.2% in 2013, following growth of 3.0% in the previous year,unchanged from the last report. The US housing and labour markets continue to show a recovery,but given persistent fiscal uncertainties, the US growth forecast for 2013 remains unchanged at1.8%. Japan’s forecast has been revised to 1.1% from 0.8%, on support from recent monetarystimulus. The Euro-zone’s forecast remains unchanged, with an expected contraction of 0.5%.Slowing exports have impacted China’s economy and growth has been revised to 8.0% from 8.1%,while India’s forecast is unchanged at 6.0%. A fragile recovery in the global economy has beenvisible since the beginning of the year, but momentum has started slowing again and growth risksare skewed to the downside.World oil demand growth in 2013 remains unchanged from the previous report at 0.8 mb/d, broadlyin line with the estimate for 2012. However, the performance of the first quarter of this year has beenrevised down based on actual data. A large portion of the growth is seen coming from China, with a0.4 mb/d increase. The other non-OECD countries are expected to add some 0.8 mb/d, with theMiddle East region accounting for around 0.3 mb/d, followed by Other Asia and Latin America withgrowth of about 0.2 mb/d each. In contrast, OECD demand is expected to see a contraction ofaround 0.4 mb/d, which is slightly less than in 2012.Non-OPEC supply is forecast to grow by 1.0 mb/d in 2013, following an increase of 0.5 mb/d in2012, broadly unchanged from the previous report. OECD Americas remain the driver of growth in2013, while OECD Europe is seen experiencing the largest decline. OPEC NGLs and nonconventionaloils are expected to increase by 0.2 mb/d in 2013. In April, total OPEC crude oilproduction, according to secondary sources, was estimated to average 30.46 mb/d, an increase of0.28 mb/d over the previous month.Product markets continued losing ground in April due to sharp declines in light and middle distillatecracks, which have been pressured by rising supplies along with weaker demand worldwide. In Asia,refinery margins fell mostly for the top of the barrel. US margins experienced a strong correction dueto the recovery in WTI prices. In Europe, the drop in the Brent price allowed European margins torecover, despite weak market fundamentals due to lacklustre domestic demand. In the tanker market, a general bearish sentiment could be seen in both dirty and clean markets inApril, due to low tonnage demand. On average, dirty spot freight rates dropped by 4% from theprevious month. The drop in freight rates was mainly driven by lower demand on refinerymaintenance and the end of the winter season. OPEC and Middle East sailings declined fromprevious month, along with arrivals in all reported ports.OECD commercial oil stocks fell marginally in March, remaining in line with the five-year average.Crude stood 19.0 mb over the seasonal average, while products indicated a deficit of about thesame amount. In terms of forward cover, OECD stocks stood at 59.1 days, some 1.3 days above thefive-year average. Preliminary data shows US commercial stocks rose by 20.0 mb in April. Thisindicates a surplus of 42.0 mb compared to the seasonal average, with the bulk coming from crude.Demand for OPEC crude in 2012 is estimated at 30.2 mb/d, following an upward revision of0.1 mb/d from the previous report and broadly unchanged compared to the previous year. In 2013,demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 29.8 mb/d, representing an upward revision of0.1 mb/d from the previous report and a 0.4 mb/d decline from last year.