2005年11月石油市场月报(2005)MOMR November 2005(2005)

来自欧元区令人印象深刻的数据证实，第三季度是世界经济强劲增长的时期，在这一扩张中，三个发达地区首次在能源价格居高不下的情况下实现了同时强劲增长。宽松的货币政策、低通胀率和世界贸易的健康增长促进了制造业产出。高水平的家庭财富使消费者能够消化更高的能源价格，而能源效率的提高减缓了对工业成本的影响。在公布了良好的第三季度数据之后，日本2005年的经济增长预测被修正为2.2%。预计2006年将继续保持1.8%的稳定增长。对欧元区的预测没有变化，预计欧元区2005年和明年分别增长1.1%和1.5%。2005年世界经济预测增长率已提高到4.3%，预计明年将达到4.1%。尽管第三季度表现良好，但预计2006年经济增长将小幅下降。能源价格上涨和补贴减少对亚洲发展中国家的影响尚不清楚。另一个不确定因素是，面对利率上升，美国经济是否会复苏。美国消费支出增长受挫将影响中国和其他亚洲经济体的出口和投资。石油输出国组织（OPEC）的篮子在10月份表现出波动性。东部地区对轻质甜味原油的需求增加，对甜味/酸味价差造成压力，中东地区原油的价差扩大，而西部炼油厂停产导致的需求不确定性推低了价格。进一步动用战略储备的可能性挥之不去，只会加剧下行势头。在需求增加和非欧佩克供应减少的前景下，油价改变了方向，尽管美国原油库存增加证明，欧佩克供应充足，使看跌趋势得以延续。该篮子的月平均价格下跌5.6%或3.25美元，收于54.63美元/桶。进入11月上半月，由于北半球反常的温暖天气，汽油需求放缓，取暖燃料需求下降，健康原油库存增加，该篮子进一步下跌。11月15日，该篮子价格远低于55美元/桶的水平，至50.01美元/桶。美国炼油业和天然气产量的积极发展，加上阿泰洛普最大炼油厂罢工的解决，以及过去几周亚洲需求放缓，引发了产品市场的看跌情绪。最近，温和的冬季进一步加剧了这种情况，特别是在美国东北部，这反过来导致全球产品价格和炼油厂利润率较上个月大幅下降。尽管最近有所下降，但炼油厂利润率仍保持健康，并可能为原油需求提供支持。由于美国市场继续缺乏中间馏分油产品，寒流可能逆转当前的看跌情绪，为产品和原油价格提供支撑。欧佩克的现货租船总量连续第二个月增加，10月份增加了135万桶/日，平均为1582万桶/日。中东以外的国家是增长的主要贡献者，增加了126万桶/日，这反映了非洲轻质和低硫原油贸易的增长。来自欧佩克地区的航行量几乎保持稳定，而中东地区的航行量激增了70万桶/日，达到193万桶/日，比去年同期增加了200万桶/日。美国和加勒比海地区的到达量跃升0.95百万桶/日，达到平均1070百万桶/日。油轮市场仍然看好，特别是苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮，根据航线的不同，运费增长了26%至80%，而产品的运费则继续上升，东部和地中海分别上升180点和120点，根据航线的不同，产品价格比去年同期高出115至226点。根据今年前三个季度的最新数据和对剩余三个月的预测，世界石油需求预计将增长120万桶/日，即1.4%，至2005年全年平均8330万桶/日。进一步削弱了“需求破坏”的论调，这些更高的数字得到了发展中国家强有力的初步增长数据的支持，世界经济——特别是美国和经合组织太平洋国家——的光明前景，以及中国表观需求的反弹。2006年，世界石油平均需求预计将增长150万桶/日，或1.8%，达到平均8480万桶/日，较上个月的数字略有上升。2005年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应量预计平均为5020万桶/日，比上一年增加35万桶/日，而上个月则下调了94000桶/日。包括欧佩克天然气和非常规石油在内，非欧佩克石油的平均供应量预计为5450万桶/日，增加了50万桶/日。按季度计算，非欧佩克石油的供应量在第三和第四季度分别减少了195000桶/日和191000桶/日；在巴西、哈萨克斯坦、挪威下调之后，而苏丹则被俄罗斯和阿塞拜疆的上调部分抵消。2006年，非欧佩克国家的石油平均供应量预计为5160万桶/日，比2005年增加140万桶/日，比上个月的报告增加34000桶/日。包括欧佩克天然气和非常规石油在内，非欧佩克的供应量预计平均为5620万桶/日，增加170万桶/日。10月份，欧佩克的产量估计平均为3000万桶/日。美国商业石油库存（包括原油和石油产品总量，不包括战略储备）小幅上升，增加了70万桶或约0.03万桶/日2005年9月30日至10月28日期间为10 506万桶。10月份，欧元兑16欧元（欧盟加挪威）的石油库存总量连续第四个月保持上升趋势，增加360万欧元或0.12万欧元/日，达到114770万欧元，为六年来的最高水平。日本9月份的石油库存总量变化不大，仍接近上月19100亿桶的水平。2005年的供需平衡略有上调，以反映较低的供应预期。据预测，2005年欧佩克原油的需求量为2880万桶/日，比2004年增加了62万桶/日，但比之前的预测高出11万桶/日。考虑到供需平衡以及由此产生的欧佩克所需原油产量水平和预计产能，目前估计第四季度所需原油量比以前增加27.6万桶/日，高于欧佩克目前的3000万桶/日原油产量，据估计，2005年第四季度，欧佩克的闲置产能平均约为8.1%，而去年同期为4.9%。2006年，对欧佩克原油的需求预计平均为2860万桶/日，较上月的报告下降约4万桶/日。季度分布显示，目前欧佩克原油需求预计第一季度为2980万桶/日，第二季度为2770万桶/日，第三季度为2780万桶/日，第四季度为2900万桶/日。

Impressive data from the Euro-zone confirmed that the third quarter was a period of strong growth for the world economy.For the first time in this expansion, all three developed regions achieved simultaneous solid growth despite the high levels ofenergy prices. Accommodative monetary policies, low inflation rates and healthy growth in world trade boostedmanufacturing output. High levels of household wealth allowed consumers to absorb the higher energy prices whilstimproved levels of energy efficiency have moderated the impact on industrial costs. Following good third quarter data, the Japanese growth forecast for 2005 has been revised up to 2.2%. Further steady growthof 1.8% is expected in 2006. There has been no change in the forecast for the Euro-zone which is expected to grow by 1.1%in 2005 and by 1.5% next year. The forecast growth rate for the world economy in 2005 has been increased to 4.3% and is expected to be followed bygrowth of 4.1% next year. Despite the good performance of the third quarter, growth is expected to fall slightly in 2006. Theimpact of higher energy prices and reduced subsidies on developing Asia is not yet clear. A further uncertainty is theresilience of the US economy in the face of rising interest rates. A setback to the growth of consumer spending in the USwould impact exports and investment in China and other Asian economies. The OPEC Basket displayed volatile movement in October. Higher demand for light sweet crude in the east put pressure onthe sweet/sour spread, which widened for Mideast crude, while uncertainty about demand due to refinery outages in the westpushed prices lower. A lingering possibility of a further tapping of strategic reserves only added to the downwardmomentum. Prices changed direction on the prospect of higher demand and lower non-OPEC supply, although ample OPECsupply as evidenced by higher US crude oil stocks kept the bearish trend alive. The Basket’s monthly average dropped ahefty 5.6% or $3.25 to settle at $54.63/b. The Basket moved further downward into the first half of November on healthycrude oil stock-builds amid slower demand for gasoline and lower heating fuel requirements due to unseasonably warmweather in the Northern hemisphere. The Basket slipped well below the $55/b level to stand at $50.01/b on 15 November. Positive developments in the US refining industry and natural gas output, combined with the resolution of a strike atEurope’s biggest refinery and slowing Asian demand over the last couple of weeks, triggered bearish sentiment in theproduct markets. More recently this situation has been further exacerbated by the mild winter, particularly in the USNortheast, which in turn resulted in a significant drop in product prices and refinery margins across the globe from theprevious month. Despite the recent declines, refinery margins remain healthy and could lend support to crude demand. Asthe US market continues to be short of middle distillate products, a cold snap could reverse the current bearish sentiment,providing support for both product and crude prices. Total OPEC spot chartering continued to increase for the second consecutive month, gaining 1.35 mb/d in October, toaverage 15.82 mb/d. Countries outside the Middle East were the main contributors to the growth, adding 1.26 mb/d, areflection of the growing trade for light and sweet crudes from Africa. Sailings from the OPEC area remained almost stable,while Middle East sailings surged by 0.7 mb/d to 19.3 mb/d, an increase of 2 mb/d over a year earlier. Arrivals at the USAand Caribbean jumped by 0.95 mb/d to average 10.7 mb/d. The tanker market remained bullish especially in the Suezmaxand Aframax sectors, where freight rates increased by between 26% and 80%, depending on the route, while freight rates forproducts continued to move upward, showing gains of as much as 180 points in the east and 120 points in the Mediterranean.Depending on the route, rates for products were between 115 to 226 points higher than the year-earlier levels. According to the latest data available for the first three quarters of the year and projections for the remaining three months,world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.2 mb/d or 1.4% to average 83.3 mb/d for the whole of 2005. Further undercuttingthe arguments for “demand destruction”, these higher figures are supported by vigorous preliminary growth data fromdeveloping countries, a brighter outlook for the world economy — particularly for the USA and OECD Pacific countries —and a rebound in Chinese apparent demand. In 2006, average world oil demand is projected to grow by 1.5 mb/d or 1.8% toaverage 84.8 mb/d, which represents a slight upward revision from last month’s figure. Non-OPEC supply in 2005 is expected to average 50.2 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.35 mb/d over the previous year,following a downward revision of 94,000 b/d from last month. Including OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils, nonOPECsupply is expected to average 54.5 mb/d, an increase of 0.5 mb/d. On a quarterly basis, non-OPEC supply has beenrevised down in the third and fourth quarter by 195,000 b/d and 191,000 b/d respectively; following downward revisions inBrazil, Kazakhstan, Norway, and Sudan which have been partially offset by upward revisions in Russia and Azerbaijan. In2006, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 51.6 mb/d, an increase of 1.4 mb/d over 2005 and an upward revision of34,000 b/d from last month’s report. Including OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils, non-OPEC supply is expected toaverage 56.2 mb/d, an increase of 1.7 mb/d. October OPEC output is estimated to have averaged 30 mb/d. US commercial oil stocks, which includes total crude and petroleum products excluding strategic reserves, moved upslightly, adding 0.7 mb or about 0.03 mb/d to stand at 1,050.6 mb during the period 30 September-28 October 2005. Totaloil stocks in Eur-16 (EU plus Norway) during October maintained the upward trend for the fourth consecutive month,rising by 3.6 mb or 0.12 mb/d to stand at 1147.7 mb, the highest level in six years. Total oil inventories in Japan showedlittle change in September, remaining close to the previous month’s level of 191 mb. The supply/demand balance for 2005 has been revised up slightly to reflect lower supply expectations. The demand forOPEC crude in 2005 (a-b) is now forecast at 28.8 mb/d, an increase of 0.62 mb/d from 2004 but 110,000 b/d higher thanpreviously projected. The crude required for the fourth quarter is now estimated to be 276,000 b/d higher than before, andis higher than current OPEC crude production at 30.0 mb/d. In terms of OPEC capacity, taking into account thesupply/demand balance as well as the resulting required OPEC crude production levels and projected production capacity,OPEC’s spare capacity is now estimated to average around 8.1% in the fourth quarter of 2005, compared to 4.9% in thesame period last year. For 2006, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.6 mb/d, a downward revision ofaround 40,000 b/d versus last month’s report. The quarterly distribution shows that demand for OPEC crude is nowexpected to be 29.8 mb/d in the first quarter, 27.7 mb/d in the second, 27.8 mb/d in the third and 29.0 mb/d in the fourth.