2008年全球风电报告年度市场Global Wind Report Annual market update 2008

2008年初，当我们庆祝全球风电装机容量达到100千兆瓦大关时，我们感到又是一个美好的一年。事实上，我们根本不知道下半年会有多戏剧性。首先，好消息是：由于美国和中国市场的惊人增长，该行业超过了所有人的预期，最终年市场规模超过27GW，全球市场规模超过120GW。该行业目前在全球拥有40多万名员工，2008年安装的新发电设备价值超过360亿欧元（近500亿美元）。美国的装机容量达到创纪录的8.4GW，超过德国，跃居全球装机容量第一位，并在此过程中创造了35000个新的就业机会。在中国，装机容量再次翻了一番，连续第四年达到12千兆瓦以上，中国将很快挑战美国，成为全球第一。欧洲的工业继续扩大和深化，尽管2008年仍由常年的市场领导者德国和西班牙引领，但目前欧洲大陆有10个国家的装机容量超过1000兆瓦。早在2008年上半年，随着原油价格稳步攀升至每桶150美元，人们对金融业的混乱状况越来越感到不安。随着金融危机开始蔓延到“实体”经济，信贷开始收紧。当银行在秋天开始像多米诺骨牌一样倒下时，任何人都很难获得任何新项目的融资，包括风力发电。报纸的头条新闻开始预测可再生能源热潮的崩溃，而那些暴露在公开市场的公司在过去几个月里经历了艰难的历程。毫无疑问，2009年（至少）将是艰难的一年，因为我们仍在等待经济衰退的底部，而且各国政府正在努力支撑银行业的基本面，然而，中长期前景依然乐观。所有使风电成为那些寻求建立一个安全、清洁能源未来的人所选择的技术的基本驱动因素仍然存在。风力发电是清洁的，本土的，部署速度快，创造了许多就业机会，几乎不用水，而且具有经济竞争力。无论是气候变化的威胁，还是依赖进口化石燃料造成的宏观经济不安全，都不会因为经济衰退而消失。中国、美国和欧盟政府似乎同意这一评估，因为它们最近的一揽子刺激计划都强调发展可再生能源，特别是风力发电。至少，中国风电行业继续保持领先，基本上没有受到金融危机的影响。在欧洲，到2020年可再生能源占最终能源消费20%的具有法律约束力的目标将继续把重点放在风能上。最大的问号是美国，因为奥巴马总统寻求在解决能源安全和气候变化问题的同时，修复银行业，刺激低迷的经济（不幸的是，这些并不是他唯一的大问题）。祝他好运。最后，我们又做了一次：我们大大低估了2008年风电市场的规模。去年这个时候，我们预测全球市场约为23GW，但实际情况是高出17%，达到27GW。希望明年这个时候我们也有同样的惊喜！这是全球风能理事会（global wind Energy Council）发布的第四份关于全球风电产业现状的年度报告，全面介绍了目前全球70多个国家的风电产业。本报告的数据和国家概况是通过世界各地的GWEC成员协会和公司以及其他分析师和政府联系人收集的。我们感谢我们的贡献者，并期待着在未来的版本继续密切合作。

Early in 2008, when we celebrated the 100GW mark in total  global installed wind energy capacity; we felt we were on  our way to another good year. In fact, we had little idea how  dramatic the second half of the year would be. First, the good news: due to stunning growth in the US and  Chinese markets, the industry exceeded all expectations to  end up with an annual market of more than 27GW, bringing  the global to more than 120GW. The sector now employs  more than 400,000 workers around the world and the  value of new power generation equipment installed in 2008  exceeded €36billion (nearly $US 50 billion). The US installed a record 8.4GW, catapulting it past  Germany to the number one spot in terms of global installed  capacity, and creating 35,000 new jobs in the process. In  China, installed capacity doubled again – for the fourth year  in a row – to reach a total of more than 12GW, and the  country will soon challenge the US for the top spot. Europe’s industry continues to broaden and deepen, and  although in 2008 it was still led by perennial market leaders  Germany and Spain, there are now ten countries on the  continent with more than 1,000MW of installed capacity. Already during the first half of 2008, as the price of crude  oil climbed steadily towards $US 150/barrel, there was  growing unease over the mess in the financial sector. As the  financial crisis started to spill over into the ‘real’ economy,  credit started to tighten. By the time banks started falling like  dominoes in the autumn, it became very difficult for anyone  to get financing for any new projects, including for wind power. Newspaper headlines started predicting the collapse of the  renewable energy boom, and those companies exposed to  public markets have had a rough ride in the past few months. There is no doubt that 2009 (at least) is going to be a  tough year as we continue to wait for the bottom of the  economic downturn and as governments seek to shore up  the fundamentals in the banking sector.The medium and long-term outlooks, however, remain  positive. All of the fundamental drivers that have made wind  power the technology of choice for those seeking to build  a secure, clean energy future are still in place. Wind power  is clean, indigenous, fast to deploy, creates many jobs, uses  virtually no water and is economically competitive. Neither  the threat of climate change nor the macroeconomic  insecurity due to reliance on imported fossil fuel is going to  go away because of a recession. The governments of China, the US and the EU seem to agree  with this assessment, as their recent stimulus packages all  emphasize the development of renewable energy in general,  and wind power in particular. The Chinese wind industry, at  least, continues to power ahead, largely unaffected by the  financial crisis. In Europe, the legally binding target of 20%  of final energy consumption from renewable energy by 2020  will keep the focus on wind energy. The big question mark is  the US, as President Obama seeks to fix the banking sector  and stimulate the flagging economy while tackling energy  security and climate change (and unfortunately, those are  not his only big problems). Good luck to him. Finally, we did it again: we significantly underestimated the  size of the 2008 wind power market. Last year at this time,  we predicted a global market of about 23GW, but the reality  was 17% higher – at 27GW. Let’s hope we have the same  surprise this time next year! This is the fourth annual report on the status of the global  wind industry by the Global Wind Energy Council, and it  provides a comprehensive snapshot of this global industry,  now present in more than 70 countries. The data and country  profiles for this report have been collected through GWEC’s  member associations and companies around the world, as  well as from other analysts and government contacts. We  thank our contributors and look forward to continued close  cooperation for future editions.