2018年度能源展望Annual Energy Outlook 2018

•在大多数情况下，美国的能源净出口都发生在2050年的预测期——美国到2022年将成为一个能源净出口国——强劲的国内生产和相对平稳的需求 •提高能源效率抵消了能源需求的增长——在参考案例中，能源消费平均每年增长0.4%——在参考案例中，到2050年，国内生产总值预计平均每年增长2.0% •在2042年和2050年，美国的液体燃料和天然气产量将继续增长——这是进一步开发页岩资源的结果，尽管价格相对较低 •2022年后，大多数新发电能力将是天然气/可再生能源(参考案例)——这是天然气价格低、可再生能源技术成本下降和扶持政策的结果

• U.S. net energy exports occur over the projection period to 2050 in most cases – U.S. becomes a net energy exporter by 2022 in Reference Case – Strong domestic production and relatively flat demand 

• Increased energy efficiency offsets growth in energy demand – Energy consumption grows about 0.4%/year on average in the Reference case – Gross Domestic Product is expected to average 2.0% annual growth to 2050 in the Reference case 

• U.S. liquids and natural gas production continues to grow through 2042 and 2050, respectively – Result of further tight and shale resources development, despite relatively low prices 

• Most new electricity generation capacity will be natural gas/renewables after 2022 (Reference case) – Result of low natural gas prices, declining renewables technology costs and supportive policies