英国石油公司2030年能源展望BP Energy Outlook 2030

<p>这是英国石油公司第二年向公众公布全球能源展望。我很高兴看到这一决定得到了我们对去年版本的回复的认可，该版本从英国石油公司网站上下载了超过36000次。我对这一答复感到特别高兴，因为我坚信，分享能源展望的数据和分析——以及我们对世界能源的年度统计审查——是我们的责任的一部分，为全世界公司、政府和餐桌上有关能源的讨论提供信息。本能源展望包含我们对未来能源趋势和关键不确定性的预测，基于我们对世界经济、政策和技术发展的看法。这是我们对2030年世界能源供需最有可能出现的结果的看法；不一定是我们英国石油公司希望看到的能源世界。今年，我们将更详细地探讨全球能源故事的几个重要方面：中国和印度的经济发展和能源需求的路径；影响中东能源出口前景的因素；以及公路运输中能源消费的“驱动力”。一如既往，构成这一前景的数字指向长期趋势，突出系统中潜在的决策点或“故障线”；简而言之，他们的工作是传达我们在生产和消费能源方面都面临的潜在挑战和机遇。</p><p>我们的工作是从数字中解开这个故事。例如，这一前景突出表明，即使可再生能源继续快速增长，矿物燃料仍将在世界能源结构中发挥关键作用。虽然这对碳排放的可能途径有着不可回避的影响，但展望也强调了通过改用天然气等碳密集度较低的燃料来提高能源效率和“减轻碳负荷”的机会。这一前景也挑战了一些长期持有的信念。例如，美国供需前景的重大变化突显出进口依存度（当今最大的能源进口国）将大幅下降的可能性。也许对我来说最重要的是，前景如何提醒我们，我们都是有联系的。全球能源贸易继续快速增长，将世界经济联系在一起，推动世界各国能源使用与经济活动之间的关系显著趋同。这些都是更好的改变。它们是由市场驱动的，虽然它们需要精心设计的政策的支持，但它们是我对世界能够应对提供负担得起、安全、可持续和当然安全的能源这一挑战感到乐观的一个关键原因。我们希望你能发现2012年版的英国石油2030年能源展望是对全球能源讨论的有益补充</p>

This is the second year in which BP has made our outlook for global energy available to the public. I am glad to see this decision was endorsed by the response we received to last year’s edition, which was downloaded over 36,000 times from BP’s website. I was particularly pleased at this response because I strongly believe that sharing the data and analysis of the Energy Outlook–and of our annual Statistical Review of World Energy –is part of our responsibility to inform the discussions on energy that are occurring in companies, governments, and over dinner tables worldwide. This Energy Outlook contains our projections of future energy trends and key uncertainties, based on our views of the evolution of the world economy, of policy, and technology. This is our view of the most likely outcome for world energy supply and demand to 2030; it is not necessarily the energy world we at BP wish to see. This year we examine in more detail several important facets of the global energy story: the pathways for economic development and energy demand in China and India; the factors affecting the energy export prospects of the Middle East; and the “drivers” of energy consumption in road transportation. As always, the numbers that make up this outlook point to long term trends and highlight potential decision points or “fault lines” in the system; in short, their job is to convey the underlying challenges and opportunities we all face in producing and consuming energy.

Our job is to unlock this story from the numbers. For example, this outlook highlights the critical role that fossil fuels will continue to play in the world’s energy mix, even as renewable energy sources continue their rapid growth. While this has inescapable implications for the likely path of carbon emissions, the outlook also highlights the opportunities for improving energy efficiency and “lightening the carbon load” by switching to less carbon-intensive fuels such as natural gas. The outlook also challenges some long-held beliefs. Significant changes in US supply and demand prospects, for example, highlight the likelihood that import dependence (in what is today’s largest energy importer) will decline substantially. Perhaps most important to me is how the outlook reminds us that we are all connected. Global energy trade continues to grow rapidly, linking the world’s economies and driving a remarkable convergence of the relationship between energy use and economic activity in countries around the world. These are changes for the better. They are market driven, and while they need the support of well-designed policies, they represent a key reason why I feel optimistic about the world’s ability to meet the challenge of providing energy that is affordable, secure, sustainable and of course safe. We hope you find the 2012 edition of the BP Energy Outlook 2030a useful addition to the global energy discussion.