1. 50 years, the international atomic energy agency (iaea), has been committed to achieve the ideal of "atoms for peace", in promoting the peaceful use of nuclear technology global cooperation, enhance global nuclear safety and nuclear security and through verification activities about will nuclear facilities and material only for peaceful purposes of international commitments are the assurance of compliance with always plays a coordinating center role.This chapter provides an overview of nuclear-related developments worldwide in 2010 and how they affect the work of the iaea.2. Continued assessment of the fukushima daiichi nuclear power plant accident caused by the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan on March 11, 2011.Since the present report focuses on developments in 2010, the incident and its implications are not addressed here and will be addressed in future iaea reports.  Nuclear technology Nuclear power, nuclear fuel cycle and sustainable developmentCurrent situation and trend of nuclear power3. The need to harness sustained economic development to alleviate poverty and hunger clearly requires increased energy and electricity supplies.Nuclear power is an important contributor to global electricity generation. As a major source of energy supply and a way to mitigate climate change, nuclear power has been undergoing a steady reevaluation process.More than 60 countries have expressed interest in exploring nuclear power, and many of them could have their first reactors operational by 2030, according to iaea projections.Construction began on 15 new nuclear-powered reactors, the most since 1985.Five new reactors were added to the grid and one retired, resulting in a net increase in global nuclear capacity to 375 gigawatts.By the end of 2010, there were 441 reactors in operation and 66 under construction.1The expected growth of nuclear power5. The current expansion and near-term and long-term growth prospects remain asia-centric.Asia is home to 12 of the 15 reactors under construction and two-thirds of those under construction by the end of the year.Four of the five new reactors are in Asia.In 2010, expectations for future growth remain high.The agency raised its low forecast for global nuclear capacity in 2030 by 7 per cent from its 2009 forecast, while the high forecast was slightly revised down.This upward revision of the low forecast reflects the progress made by the government, power companies and suppliers in implementing the announced plans.The relative stability of the high-value forecasts means that, globally, the strong appetite for the possibility of more ambitious nuclear expansion remained largely unchanged in 2010.7. In 2010, iaea extended its projections to 2050 for the first time.In terms of low value forecasts, growth will be inThe post-2030 slowdown.In terms of high-value projections, the world's nuclear capacity will increase fourfold by 2050.8. Atomic energy agency (iaea), also attended by the organisation for economic co-operation and the international energy agency and the oecd nuclear energy agency published the 2010 edition of the power production forecasting cost of work, which shows that calculated by the low interest rates, capital intensive low-carbon technologies such as nuclear power to can compete with coal-fired power plants and burning natural gas combined cycle plant base load power supply for the cost.But at high interest rates, fossil-fuel power is cheaper in many places than nuclear power.Provide support for in-transit nuclear power plants9. There is now a more global and competitive energy market with more stringent regulatory, stakeholder and environmental requirements than when most existing power plants were built.At the end of 2010, 358 of the 441 nuclear-powered transporters had been operating for more than 20 years.Many member states therefore continue to give high priority to the operation of their reactors beyond the 30-40 years originally envisaged.10. During the iaea technical cooperation cycle 2009-2011, 15 member states have been participating in technical cooperation projects to strengthen their planning and management capabilities to promote long-term operations and improve performance.That is double the seven member states that participated in the 2007-2008 cycle.Expansion of nuclear power programs11. The majority of the increase in installed nuclear power capacity will occur in the 29 countries that already have nuclear power projects in operation.After slowing construction in the 1990s, these countries have recently shown greater interest in building new power plants.Currently, 24 countries are planning to expand their existing nuclear programs, and by the end of 2010, countries with reactors in operation were building 65 reactors.At the same time, the agency has received an increasing number of applications for assistance for future expansion of nuclear power projects.Iaea assistance continues to contribute to the development of the necessary nuclear power infrastructure.Energy assessment service12. Iaea supports national energy assessments for all interested member states, not just those interested in nuclear power.The agency sometimes assesses member states directly.In other cases, iaea has helped to build the capacity of member states to carry out self-assessment through the transfer of assessment tools to member states and the training of their experts.In 2010, the demand for iaea assistance in promoting energy system analysis and planning and in promoting national and regional capacity-building for future energy strategies and the role of nuclear power continued to increase.More than 120 member states are currently using analytical tools developed for this purpose by the iaea.During 2010, more than 650 energy analysts from 68 countries were trained to use these tools.After a successful initial experience with e-training, about 20% of the training took the form of distance learning classes.

1. 五十多年来，国际原子能机构一直致力于实现“原子用于和平”的理想，在促进全球和平利用核技术合作、提高全球核安全和核安保以及通过核查活动提供关于仅将核设施和核材料用于和平目的的国际承诺正在得到遵守的保证方面始终发挥着协调中心的作用。本章概述 2010 年世界范围内与核有关的发展以及这些发展如何影响原子能机构工作的情况。

2. 对 2011 年 3 月 11 日袭击日本的地震和海啸这种异常自然灾害引起的福岛第一核电站事故继续进行评定。由于本报告侧重于 2010 年的发展情况，因此，对该事故及其影响在此并不进行论述，而将在原子能机构今后的报告中加以处理。

核 技 术

核电、核燃料循环和可持续发展

核电的现状和趋势

3. 需要利用经济的持续发展来减轻贫困和饥饿明显要求增加能源和电力的供应。核电是全球电力的一个重要促进因素，作为一种主要能源供应来源和一种缓解气候变化的途径，核电一直在经历一个稳定的再评价过程。60 多个国家已表示有兴趣探索核电，而且按照原子能机构的预测，其中许多国家有可能在 2030 年前将其首座反应堆投入运行。

4. 有 15 座新核动力堆开工建设，这是 1985 年以来新开工建设数量最多的一次。五座新反应堆并入电网，一座反应堆退休，其结果是全球核发电容量出现净增加，达到375 吉瓦（电）。到 2010 年底，正在运行的反应堆有 441 座，在建反应堆为 66 座。¹

核电的预期增长

5. 当前的扩大以及近期和远期的增长前景仍以亚洲为中心。在开工建造的 15 座反应堆中有 12 座在亚洲，年底在建的反应堆中也有三分之二在亚洲。五座并网的新反应堆中有四座在亚洲。

6. 2010 年，对未来增长的预期依然很高。相比 2009 年的预测，原子能机构将 2030 年全球核电装机容量的低值预测提高了 7%，而高值预测则略微下调。对低值预测的这种上调修改反映了政府、电力公司和供应商在执行已宣布的计划方面取得的进展。高值预测相对稳定意味着从全球来看，对更加雄心勃勃的核扩展可能性的强烈愿望在2010 年基本未变。

7. 2010 年，原子能机构首次将其预测延伸至 2050 年。就低值预测而言，增长将在

2030 年后放缓。就高值预测而言，2050 年的全球核电装机容量将比目前提高四倍。

8. 原子能机构还参加了由经合组织国际能源机构和经合组织核能机构出版的 2010 年版《电力生产预测成本》的编制工作，其中显示，按照低利率计算，资本密集的低碳技术如核能能够以可与燃煤电厂和燃天然气联合循环厂竞争的成本提供基荷电力。但按照高利率计算，化石燃料的发电成本在许多地方低于核电。

对在运核电厂提供支持

9. 与现有大多数电厂在建造的时候相比，目前有一个更具全球性和竞争性的能源市场，在监管、利益相关者和环境方面的要求也更加严格。在 2010 年底 441 座在运核动力堆中，有 358 座已经运行了 20 多年。因此，许多成员国继续高度优先重视其反应堆在超过最初设想的 30－40 年后的运行问题。

10. 在原子能机构 2009－2011 年技术合作周期内，有 15 个成员国一直在参加加强其规划和管理能力以促进长期运行和提高实绩的技术合作项目。这比 2007－2008 年周期有七个成员国参与翻了一倍。

核电计划的扩大

11. 核电装机容量的大部分增长将出现在已经拥有运行中的核电计划的 29 个国家。在20 世纪 90 年代减缓新建之后，这些国家最近对建造新电厂表现出更加浓厚的兴趣。目前有 24 个国家正在计划扩大其现有核计划，到 2010 年底，有在运反应堆的国家正在建造 65 座反应堆。与此同时，原子能机构收到了越来越多关于对未来扩大核电计划提供援助的申请。原子能机构的援助继续帮助发展必要的核电基础结构。

能源评定服务

12. 原子能机构支持对所有感兴趣的成员国而不仅仅是对那些对核电感兴趣的成员国开展国家能源评定。原子能机构有时直接对成员国进行评定。在其它情况下，原子能机构则通过向成员国转让评定工具和培训成员国专家帮助建立成员国开展自我评定的能力。2010 年，在促进能源系统分析和规划以及促进对未来能源战略和核电的作用开展国家和地区性研究的能力建设方面请求原子能机构提供援助的需求继续增加。120 多个成员国目前正在使用原子能机构为此开发的分析工具。2010 年期间，对来自 68 个国家的 650 多名能源分析人员进行了使用这些工具的培训。在对电子培训进行成功的初步体验之后，约 20%的培训采取了远程学习班的方式。