2009年世界能源展望world energy outlook 2009

在过去的12个月里，世界能源日周边的能源市场出现了巨大的qjhravab，然而，改变全球能源体系的挑战仍然紧迫而艰巨。全球金融危机和随之而来的经济衰退对未来几年的能源市场前景产生了巨大影响。随着经济吸引力的增强，世界能源需求已经大幅下降；其重新启动的速度在很大程度上取决于全球经济复苏的速度。各国已对经济多边贸易的威胁作出反应，将其视为金融危机的一个缩影，有针对性和协调一致的财政和货币刺激措施，这是一个未经授权的规模。在许多情况下，stimulis packiges已经采取了一些措施来促进dean energy的发展，目的是增加一个更大的、同样真实的、滞后的期限威胁——灾难性的dimate变化。我们如何应对这一挑战，将对能源市场产生深远影响。作为温室气体排放的主要来源，能源是问题的核心，因此解决问题的关键是能源。表演的时间到了：1《联合国气候变化框架公约》缔约方会议（2009年12月）提出了一个谈判《京都议定书》后续条约的决定性机会，该条约使世界走上了一条尝试性的可持续能源道路。《世界能源展望2009》（WEO-2009）（对这一挑战进行了配对，并表明需要wtat来克服这一挑战。能源挑战的规模和广度是巨大的，远远超过许多人的认识。但它可以而且必须得到满足。经济衰退通过抑制绿色气体排放量的增长，使能源部门转型的任务变得更加容易，因为它为我们提供了一个相对狭窄的机会之窗，让我们可以在低碳技术上对cmcertrate investmert采取行动。与能源相关的caftondoxkfe（2009年的碳排放量将低于经济衰退时的水平）。但是，如果Ccperhagen没有达成一项强有力的协议，而且排放量恢复了它们的tpward路径，那么这种节约w？U将毫无意义。家庭和企业主要负责进行所需的投资，但政府掌握着改变能源投资组合的关键。政策和法规框架是在国家和项目层面制定的，它决定了投资和消费是否转向低碳选择。因此，这一前景展示了两个ScVaCox的结果：一个参考场景，WTICH提供了一个基线图，说明如果政府不改变其现有的政策和措施，全球能源MARICET将如何发展；以及450种情形，wtich描述了在wfich中的一个问题，即采取集体政策行动，使大气中格氏气体的长期浓度达到每小时450个单位（ppm CO），这一目标正在得到世界的广泛支持。

The past 12 months have seen enormous qjhravab in energy markets around the wodd, yet the challenges of transforming the global energy system remain urgent and daunting. The global financial crisis and ensuing recession have had a dramatic inpact m the outlook for energy maitets, partkdarty in the next few years. Wortd energy demand in a製勇ate has already plunged with the economic attraction; how quickly it rebouuis depends largely on how quickly the global econooy recwers. Countries have responded to the threat of economic mdt<lown as a resit of the financial crisis with pronpt and co-ordiiated fiscal and monetary stimuli cn an uxxecedented scale. In many cases, stimulis packiges have hduded measures to promote dean energy with the aim of tadding an even bigger, and just as real, lag-term threat - that of disastrous dimate change. How we rise to that challenge will have far-reaching consequences for energy markets. As the leading source of greenhousegas emissions, energy is at the heart of the problem and so nu6t be rteyal to the solution. The time to act has arrived: the 1 ?" Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Coiwenticn cn Qimate Change (UNFCCQ in Copentngen (December 2009) presents a decisive cpportmity to negotiate a successor treaty to the Kyoto Protocol - one that puts the wortd onto a trdy sustainable energy path. The WorldEner^ Outlook 2009 (WEO-2009) (paitifies the challenge and shows wtat is required to overcome it. The scale and breadth of the energy challenge is enormous - far greater than many people realise. But it can and must be met. The recession, by curbing the growth in greenhxse-gas emissions, has made the task of transforming the energy sector easier by giving us an inprecedented, yet relatively narrow, window of opportunity to take action to cmcertrate investmert on low-cartx)n technology. Energy-related caftondoxkfe (COJ enissions in 2009 wil be wdl bdow what they would have been had the recession not occirred. But this saving wU count for nothing if a robust deal is not reached in Ccperhagen - and emissions resume their tpward path. Households and businesses are largely responsble for making the required investments, but governments hold the key to changing the mix of energy investment. The policy and regdatory frameworis established at nattonal and itemational levels Mil detemine whether investment and consumption dedsims are steered towards low-carbon options. Accordingly, this Outlook presents the results of two scenarks: a Reference Scenario, wtich provides a baseline picture of how global energy maricets would evolve if governments make no changes to their existing policies and measures; and a 450 Scenario, wtich depicts a wortd in wfich collective policy action is taken to lint the leng-term concentratim of greerhotse gases in the atmospliere to 450 parts per rrtllionof COfeqiivalert (ppm CO,qh an objective that is gaining widespread suppcrt aromd the wortd.