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保护石油输出国经济免受能源冲击Sheltering the Economies of OilExporting Countries From Energy Shocks 保护石油输出国经济免受能源冲击Sheltering the Economies of OilExporting Countries From Energy Shocks

保护石油输出国经济免受能源冲击Sheltering the Economies of OilExporting Countries From Energy Shocks

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  • 更新时间：2021-09-17
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自上世纪70年代以来，油价大幅波动对经济的影响一直是政策制定者关注的问题。在过去40年里，石油出口国和石油进口国政府一直在执行各种政策，以保护其经济不受不利的石油价格冲击的影响，每一种情况的政策方针都不同。轻质致密油的出现，促使石油市场结构发生了重大变化。非常规石油投资对油价变化反应强烈;实际上，它降低了长期周期性冲击的可能性，除非市场在某种程度上无法找到合适的价格，从而导致巨大的失衡可能加剧。就天然气而言，放弃以石油价格为基础的定价，也可能改变这种能源的波动性。

The impact of sharp oil price fluctuations on economies has been an issue of concern for policymakers since the 1970s. In the last 40 years, governments of oil-exporting and -importing countries have been implementing policies to shelter their economies from adverse oil price shocks, with the policy approach being different in each case. The emergence of light, tight oil has prompted a critical change in the structure of oil markets. Investment in non-conventional oil reacts aggressively to changes in oil prices; in effect, it reduces the likelihood of long-term cyclical shocks, unless markets are somehow prevented from finding the right price, to the extent that large imbalances may build up. In the case of natural gas, a move away from pricing based on oil prices may also change the volatility of this source of energy.

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